In run-up to elections, newcomers Free Party and EKRE are stronger yet since January so it’s highly likely the 101 Toompea chairs will hold people from six parties.
Toompea set to seat six parties
20th February 2015, 14:22
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Centre Party may breathe easiest at the moment: these past months, their popularity has stayed stable at 22 to 23 percent. «Comparing those who promised to vote Centre in January and February, the overlap is 97 percent,» said pollster TNS Emor expert Aivar Voog.
With other parties, the overlap is a lot smaller and people tend to shift sides. «While Centre Party has their rather solid electorate, Reform does compete with soc dems and IRL. And those currently outside the parliament, EKRE and Free Party, may still rob Reform of some votes,» observed Mr Voog.
Still, Mr Voog did not see Reform as a major loser of the poll. «This is no defeat. Statistically, the change is not significant, and when viewing the last three months this is the traditional pre-elections downward trend,» said Mr Voog referring to like situation before the 2011 elections. «A couple of months before the elections, other parties get activated as well, the political horizon broadens for people, and Reform Party may lose the random mass that they have.»
For soc dems, it’s 20 percent in February from 18 in January. To call this «rise» is notional as they have been at around 20 all these past months. «As the soc dems’ overlap with IRL and Free Party is very large, the final days will truly be decisive and the older, more traditional parties may then be more successful,» predicted Mr Voog. According to him, studies in Europe and elsewhere reveal that before elections respondents tend to toy with fun options, but as The Day dawns and a definite decision needs to be made, they prefer to play it safe and go for those they supported in the past.
As admitted by Mr Voog, the advance polls that started yesterday will play a big role but, at the moment, six parties look set to get into Riigikogu.
What about those battling for the win? «Very tight right now, depends on the final weeks, the final days, which pulls ahead – Centre of Reform,» said Mr Voog. The two have just a percent of difference.
When it comes to second choice, soc dems and IRL are leading the pack. IRL is second best for those voting for Reform, and soc dems for those favouring Centre. Thus – these pairs are like kind.
At the moment, potential voting activity is at 67 percent. The activism is highest in Tallinn, the higher pay/education group, and the elderly. «Can’t say» group percentage was 15 – lower than usual.