Merrily sailing along sunny seas, phenomena like storms and reefs may easily be forgotten. Even so, an experienced sea wolf will occasionally glance over to the instruments. Hazards of the same sort also lurk beneath the surface of next year’s budget basically approved by government, yesterday. It’s elections eve. Politicians’ souls are bursting with longings to look kind and caring; meanwhile, clouds are forming in the macroeconomic skies.
At yesterday’s governmental press conference, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip called the 2014 budget socially sensitive. True: for a casual observer, the centre-right plans – especially so the social spending and wage funds increases – would be envied by very soc dems themselves.
At the same time, the significantly swelling budget could rather be called fiscally optimistic – with €8bn planned as revenues and €8.1bn as spending (this year, €7.5bn and €7.7bn, respectively). Freaky indeed to hear tidings of wage rise – as eagerly underlined by bulk of power party candidates – while developments in economy should rather instil caution.
As August was coming to its close, finance minister Jürgen Ligi justly admitted being frustrated by economic forecasts: Estonia’s this year’s growth expectations having been decisively cut by Eesti Pank and OECD alike. Neither are our key partners doing well – Finnish economy having slipped into decline, Russian growth slowing with greatest speed since 2008. No shouting time for eurozone, either, as despite of trying hard full market confidence has not been regained.
In all probability, Riigikogu launching its proceedings next week cannot be counted on to call for moderation – as shown by past years experience. One reason being that executive power controls the budget process in ever increasing detail. Also, the parliament tending to focus mightily on minor nuances, attempting to attach itself to the more pleasant developments.
Would come as no surprise if, this year, we would hear oppositions parties lamenting the slow growth of subsistence benefits. Indeed: why raise things to €90 if €100 would sound so much better?! Be it political culture or lack of it – occasions for stalling procedures will always be found, not for the betterment of budgets.
As penned by Juku-Kalle Raid, last year’s stalls and delays lead to flourishing fiction. Elections in the air, we may well be treated with budget procedures even wittier, this time around. In no way ennobling the parliament, however.