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If last year the carriage of goods by road in Estonia was nearly 15 percent below the pre-crisis level, a drop of 5-10 percent cannot be ruled out this year, Swedbank says.
Swedbank: cargo carriage may decline 5-10 percent this year
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15th March 2013, 17:22
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A decrease of up to 5 percent however ought not to have a marked impact on Estonian transport enterprises due to accumulated buffers and better preparedness for possible setbacks, head of Swedbank's transport sector Marko Lukk explained at the bank's forum for carriers.
Lukk said that the pre-crisis level of freight transport by road will probably not be surpassed in the next couple of years. "Carriage of goods has shown stable and relatively fast growth after the crisis. However, last year the growth stabilized and the freight turnover remained more or less at the 2011 level," Lukk said. "We would rather expect goods volumes to decrease somewhat in 2013 due to the cooling of economy in our principal markets."
In Lukk's words, vehicle sale statistics are an indicator of European carriers' expectations. In January heavy vehicle sales in Europe plunged 18 percent compared to the previous year. "Nonetheless, we are more optimistic about heavy vehicle sales in Estonia and are not expecting a drop. We predict this year's sales of new heavy vehicles at 700 units or so, the same level as last year and the year before that," he said.
"A small decline in freight volumes ought not to have a marked impact on Estonian carriers. Companies of the sector have done quite well in the last 2-3 years and hopefully will have accumulated sufficient buffers. Furthermore, their investments have been more modest - carriers' situation is considerably more secure than in 2007-2008," Lukk said.
The capitalization level of Estonian road transport companies is usually 30 percent and up to 50 percent capitalization is already a strong indicator in this sector, Lukk said. "The crisis experience showed businesses that with a sufficient level of capitalization this is a good time for making investments, allowing them to set better terms," he said.