FOOKUS ⟩ NATO's top military commander has no illusions about the Russian threat

As supreme allied commander Europe, General Christopher G. Cavoli has frequently visited the Baltic states. The current SACEUR has openly discussed the peculiarities of Baltic defense: it requires much more conventional firepower. Photo: Sander Ilvest Photo: Sander Ilvest

• In the United States Army, not much was known about NATO, but that is changing.
• Estonian Division headquarters was able participate in an exclusive exercise.
• The NATO military leader is proficient in Russian and knows his main adversary well.

Many Estonians have not realized that in the event of a NATO collective defense operation, that is if Article 5 is triggered, the Estonian defense forces would come under the command of US four-star General Christopher Cavoli. The man who took office as Supreme Allied Commander Europe, or SACEUR, in July 2022 was born in Europe and understands the key issues of our continent's defense better than many European generals. Editor Meelis Oidsalu interviewed military personnel and diplomats to learn more about the man who has brought new energy to Europe's military defense.

When General Christopher Cavoli assumed the role of SACEUR on July 4, 2022, the largest war of the 21st century in Europe had already begun. Born in West Germany to an American-Italian military family, Cavoli did not need his predecessor, Air Force General Tod Wolters, to familiarize him with the situation in Europe. Having earned a good reputation in the US Army, Cavoli had been leading the United States Army Europe and Africa since 2020, and before that, the United States Army Europe.

NATO military chain of command in the event of an Article 5 operation in the Baltic states

The commander of the Estonian defense forces serves as an advisor to the republic's government during an Article 5 operation or participates in the work of the NATO Military Committee.

Upon the initiation of an Article 5 operation, Estonian units and the permanently stationed allied ground force unit in Estonia are placed under NATO's command as part of the Estonian defense forces Division.

Division Commander

Colonel Mait Müürisepp

Location: Tallinn, Estonia

The division directly reports to the NATO Multinational Corps Northeast

Commander of the Multinational Corps Northeast

Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim Von Sandrart (Germany)

Location: Szczecin, Poland

NATO Multinational Corps Northeast is in turn subordinate to the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum.

Commander of the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum

General Guglielmo Luigi Miglietta (Italy)

Location: Brunssum, Netherlands

This command reports directly to NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), led by SACEUR

Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR)

General Christopher Cavoli (USA)

Location: Mons, Belgium

SACEUR receives instructions from the North Atlantic Council, which is advised militarily by the NATO Military Committee.

Although all Western generals are trained to lead joint operations across different military branches, their «home branch» influences their thinking. Ground forces think about warfare differently than air forces, and therefore, it is crucial that at this moment, when NATO's conventional defense against the threat of a massive Russian army needs reinforcement, an army officer again holds the position of SACEUR.

Western air forces are accustomed to attaching great importance to advanced technology and targeting the enemy with precision strikes. This has been practiced against significantly weaker opponents in the Balkans, Libya, and Afghanistan.

Knows Europe like the back of his hand

General Cavoli's past statements have emphasized that air superiority and precision strikes alone are insufficient to protect «every inch of NATO» along its eastern border, given the formidable size of the Russian army. He understands the nuances of European defense better than many European generals, not to mention his American colleagues.

Our current SACEUR has studied Russian and has also spent some time as a researcher on Russian topics at the United States National Defense University. He has no confusion about who NATO's main opponent is.

Our current SACEUR has studied Russian and has also spent some time as a researcher on Russian topics at the United States National Defense University. He has no confusion about who NATO's main opponent is. As a army officer, he knows how to keep discussions practical and pragmatic. He stands for the US president's promise to protect «every inch of NATO» not remaining a political slogan but being militarily credible and reflected in the plans. He reads a lot about history to better understand the opponent and is not afraid to spend time outside of work learning about Russian military thinking and warfare methods, and not just conventional warfare.

General Christopher Gerard Cavoli

* Born in 1964 in Würzburg, West Germany.

* Raised in a military family with Italian-American roots in Rome and Vicenza.

* Studied biology at Princeton University and earned a master's degree in Russian and East European studies at Yale University.

* Served in Bosnia and Afghanistan, and rose from battalion commander to brigade commander in the Afghan war.

* Became the commander of the US Army Europe in 2018.

* Was appointed commanding general of US Army Europe and Africa in 2020.

* Supreme Allied Commander Europe since July 4, 2022.

In the summer of 2021, as commander of US Army Europe and Africa, General Cavoli regularly received information through Tallinn about the hybrid attack by Belarus on Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Estonia sent defense forces to help Lithuania and Poland. The Americans gratefully received the information gathered by them because in the spring of 2021, Russia had begun amassing troops on the Crimean peninsula.

Events escalated. General Cavoli is familiar with the Russian «manual» for hybrid warfare; he comprehensively understands the complexities of warfare, including its "gray areas."

Americans disclose their war plans

The arrival of a general with Old World roots at the head of US Army Europe meant that the US Army began talking about its war plans to allies much more openly than before and started to synchronize these plans vigorously with NATO's.

In recent years, Americans have increased their military presence, including artillery power, in Europe. Pictured is the US self-propelled long-range howitzer

In recent years, Americans have increased their military presence in Europe, including artillery power, which can fire a guided missile up to 40 kilometers away. Photo: US Army/Richard Wrigleyin Europe. Pictured is the US self-propelled long-range howitzer Photo: USA armee/Richard Wrigley

Another significant change initiated by Cavoli was NATO collective defense plans being rehearsed in larger exercises than before. Despite COVID restrictions, the first such major exercise, Defender-Europe, was conducted in 2021, which included the Estonian Kevadtorm (Spring Storm) exercise. At that time, Cavoli became intimately acquainted with the details of Estonia's defense. Collective defense was practiced more extensively both in the field and at the simulation center in Grafenwöhr, Bavaria, Germany, where the key issues of Baltic defense were repeatedly played out and analyzed.

Estonians have mainly met General Cavoli at meetings of the commanders of the European ground forces, held a couple of times a year. SACEUR contributed to the admission of the Estonian defense forces' Division to the legendary US Army Warfighter exercise.

War games have given NATO's top general unprecedented courage to speak openly about the peculiarities of Baltic military defense from the start of his tenure. In this narrow land strip, it is impossible to cede territory to the opponent, so the defending force must have sufficient firepower available at the onset of conflict to hold back the mass of Russian forces while destroying their rear and command with precision strikes from a distance. This last action takes time. Thus, the Russian mass onslaught must be held back with force for some time.

Estonians have primarily met General Cavoli at the meetings of the commanders of the European ground forces, held a couple of times a year. His special interest in the development of Baltic collective defense is demonstrated, among other things, by his contribution to the admission of the Estonian defense forces' Division to the legendary US Army Warfighter exercise. Previously, only the United Kingdom and France had access to it. Germany tried but was left out.

The queue of countries wishing to participate in this leadership exercise is reportedly years long. At Warfighter, US corps and division staffs practice maneuvers. There, SACEUR himself can also lead the entire NATO defense in the form of an exercise.

Earthworm researcher meets mole hunter

On one occasion, the commander of the Estonian defense forces found himself talking with General Cavoli about... earthworms. While Cavoli became more familiar with Russia during his master's studies at Yale University, before that he had studied biology at the prestigious Princeton University. In 1987, he defended his research on the impact of earthworms on the mycelium of soil-dwelling mold.

Since Estonia's defense chief, General Martin Herem, is well-known in Estonia as a hobbyist mole hunter, and since earthworms and moles share the same environment, the conversation briefly led the two high-ranking army officers underground at one dinner — to the astonishment of other allied officers at the table.

Photo: Martin, are you saying your mole calculates the targets for a 120 mm mortar faster than my worms? Of course, it just eats them up. Nature-enthusiast generals Martin Herem and Christopher Cavoli. Illustration: Illustration: Marek Strandberg

General Cavoli is said to be very approachable, provided the conversation partner can offer him some intellectual kindling. When he hears a captivating military thought, he lights up. Estonia has had some interesting things to tell the American about the Russian military decision-making logic. As an expert in conventional warfare, he is a supporter of the Estonian reserve army model.

The hobbies of General Cavoli, who only makes media appearances when necessary, include his interest in languages (besides Russian, he is proficient in Italian and French) and his excellent physical form. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he significantly increased his running distance. A 10-kilometer morning run is still no problem for the general, who just turned 60 this year.

«Protecting every inch» should not remain a mere slogan

For an American general, the position of SACEUR may not necessarily be the first choice. For many US military personnel, their own army alone is a larger and more important entity than NATO, which only covers a fraction of the United States' global military geography. In addition to maintaining transatlantic ties, Americans must also maintain and develop military bases and alliances in the Pacific region. Cavoli was enticed to leave the SACEUR position for the role of US Army chief of staff, but he did not go.

The general has promoted the idea within the US Army that their main theater of war is still Europe. While the focus of the US Navy and Air Force may jump between continents over time, Cavoli believes that the US Army should permanently focus on Europe.

For an American general, the position of SACEUR may not necessarily be the first choice. For many US military personnel, their own army alone is a larger and more important entity than NATO.

To confirm this, Americans have increased the military presence of their ground forces in Europe, including by strengthening artillery power. In recent years, the leadership of US Army Europe and Africa has become an actual war-leading headquarters, whereas a decade ago it was more of an administrative unit. They now have their own artillery command, air defense command, and logistics command in Europe.

Americans are not naturally pro-NATO

Cavoli has also ensured that US forces would submit their strength to NATO's unified command as early as possible in the event of war. While a large portion of the US armed forces know NATO as a concept, it does not mean that they fully understand the details and subordination relationships of NATO's Article 5 military operations.

The general's good reputation has helped change this trend. He has taken on the mission of popularizing NATO within the US armed forces. In personnel decisions, the SACEUR takes into account the military personnel's attitudes regarding NATO. It is important to him that Americans who come to serve in Europe see their presence in a NATO context and approach European allies with openness. As a four-star general, he undoubtedly has significant influence over US military personnel decisions.

Cavoli, referred to as a «scholar soldier,» is said to combine a warrior's directness and specificity, an intellectual's discipline in discussion, and a diplomat's self-control in rare ways. The latter can only be shaken by people who talk nonsense, who are afraid to admit that they do not really know what they are talking about. Officers must learn the skill, if necessary, to metaphorically «tear someone apart,» using army slang. The general knows this art well, too, but focuses on claims, not the person making the argument.

Due to his highly developed self-management and debate skills, Cavoli is also a valued spokesperson among politicians. In challenging times, it is crucial for the SACEUR to have good relations with the political elite of the United States, NATO's largest military «sponsor.» The military leader of NATO always comes from the United States, a tradition established at the inception of NATO's military structure in 1952. Washington holds the alliance's largest nuclear arsenal, hence it is understandable that NATO's military leader comes from the army directed by the White House.

Tiny timeframe of a monumental task

Recently, the self-control of US generals has been severely tested for internal political reasons. Last year, Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville began blocking hundreds of general nominations, citing the Pentagon's allegedly overly liberal stance on abortions among US military personnel. While military training prepares for the cold nerve needed for military issues, war schools do not prepare for political harassment; overcoming this requires deeper personal diplomatic traits, and General Cavoli seems to be well-equipped in this regard.

When it comes to the current SACEUR, politicians value not only his self-control but also his clarity of expression. A few months ago, Cavoli received accolades at NATO for his ability to explain the nuances of NATO's complex layered air defense system to the North Atlantic Council «civilians» in a comprehensible yet detailed manner.

Poland is currently the only European country that has made military defense enhancements commensurate with the threats it faces. Even Estonia, which has sharply increased its defense spending, still has critical defense gaps with no current plans for resolution. History cannot be turned back; one can only prepare for the future. Photo: Photo: Konstantin Sednev

General Cavoli is also said to have elevated military discussions in NATO to the appropriate scale. Estonia's proposal two years ago to establish a NATO division headquarters in each Baltic state sounded unusually ambitious even to our own leaders, as the Baltic states had previously discussed NATO's pre-deployed battalions. Such a scale jump naturally fit the new SACEUR's proposal to end battalion-level thinking in discussions of NATO's collective defense.

At Cavoli's insistence, discussions on NATO collective defense now are not just about brigades (consisting of several battalions) but about divisions (consisting of several brigades) and corps (consisting of several divisions) in terms of movement and supply. This year's Defender-Europe exercise will see a division-sized allied unit gather on NATO's eastern flank for the first time. SACEUR's biggest challenge in the coming years is to persuade ally nations, still hesitating over defense funding, to staff, equip, and train together on an even larger scale in NATO's new rapid response structure.

Discussions on NATO collective defense now talk not just about brigades (consisting of several battalions) but about divisions (consisting of several brigades) and corps (consisting of several divisions) in terms of movement and supply.

Speaking in the United States Congress on April 10, the supreme allied commander stated that Russia has been able to restore its army's combat capability faster than initial estimates predicted and that the Russian army is now 15 percent larger than it was on February 24, 2022.

The Kremlin's terrorist regime has militarized Russian society and systematically promotes a national culture of death. The photo shows children playing war games in occupied Crimea. Photo: Photo: Arc.construction

General Cavoli is described as a man with no illusions about either the time available for strengthening NATO's collective defense or the scale of the task at hand. «Strong. Focused. The kind of man you want on your side. Fortunately, he is on our side. Just the SACEUR we need,» one of the top figures in Estonian security diplomacy says.