ANDREY KUZICHKIN ⟩ When will the countdown to Putin's regime's final months begin?

Onions in a Russian grocery store. Photo: Andrey Kuzichkin

• The average minimum subsistence level in Russia is 177 euros per month.
• Income growth lags behind inflation, pushing already impoverished regions even deeper into poverty.
• Putin is acutely sensitive to public opinion.

In my previous overview of the Russian food market, I focused on the prices of vegetables and dairy products. However, price hikes were comprehensive: in 2024, all prices rose, from gasoline to bread. In January 2025, inflation accelerated, and annual inflation could exceed 10 percent at this rate, columnist Andrey Kuzichkin writes.

There is a significant price disparity between regions, however. The most expensive products are found in the retail networks of Moscow, Yakutia, Chukotka, and Kamchatka. Conversely, products are the cheapest in the Caucasus and Volga regions. The price of bread in Chechnya can be three times lower than in Chukotka. Utility bills, fuel, clothing, and other essentials also vary widely regionally. This is illustrated by a comparison of the minimum subsistence level across Russia's regions as of early 2025.

The wealth and want of the regions

The average minimum subsistence level in Russia is 177 euros per month (here and below, the exchange rate is 100 rubles = 1 euro). This is 15 percent higher than in 2024. In Moscow, the minimum is 240 euros, in Chukotka 460 euros, and in the Magadan Oblast, Yakutia, and Kamchatka 300 euros. It is 150 euros in Tambov, Belgorod, and Ulyanovsk oblasts. Regions also differ greatly in average monthly income per capita, ranging from 1,600 euros in Moscow, Yamal, and Chukotka to 300 euros in Ingushetia. The median value is 450 euros.

Income disparities primarily stem from the availability of hydrocarbon resources in regions (Yamal) and a high tax base (Moscow). As a result, incomes in resource-rich areas allow purchasing five to six consumer baskets of fixed goods and services. In Ingushetia, however, it is just over one basket. The gap between affluent and impoverished regions in Russia is fivefold. Yet, there are only five conditionally rich regions where the average income exceeds 1,000 euros. In other territories, price hikes have caught most of the population off guard.

There is a popular meme in poor regions: «We go to the store like to a museum.» This means there are plenty of goods but no money to buy them. One can only look. I receive letters from Tomsk that in January, prices increased sharply for certain household chemicals and hygiene products. For example, the price of Wella shampoo rose from 6 euros to 20 euros, and cosmetic face masks quadrupled in price. In the first three weeks of January, cheese prices rose by 10 percent, milk and butter by 15 percent. A similar situation has been observed in Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, and Altai.

More on this topic

Opinion

23rd January

ANDREI KUZITŠKIN ⟩ A look into a Russian's shopping cart: the annual price increase is shocking

In comments on my previous article, many Estonian supporters of Russia and Putin criticized me for not writing about Estonia's high prices and poverty. Firstly, hundreds of commentators and journalists have covered this extensively. Secondly, let us compare the availability of food for pensioners in Tallinn and Irkutsk for three items: milk, chicken, and sugar. In Tallinn and Irkutsk, a liter of milk costs approximately one euro, a kilogram of chicken four euros, and a kilogram of sugar 70 cents in Tallinn and 80 cents in Irkutsk. The average pension in Tallinn is 774 euros, in Irkutsk 250 euros. It turns out that with their income, a pensioner in Tallinn can buy 774 liters of milk, 194 kilograms of chicken, and 1,105 kilograms of sugar. Their counterpart in Irkutsk can buy with their pension 250 liters of milk, 63 kilograms of chicken, and 310 kilograms of sugar.

The situation in Russia continues to deteriorate: income growth lags behind inflation, pushing already impoverished regions deeper into poverty. Putin has presumably been informed of this. This is why, in January, he quickly indexed pensions not by 7.5 percent, as previously promised, but by 9 percent, adding an average of five euros. However, such supplements are unlikely to reduce the wave of discontent rising among the impoverished population. If social protests ever start in Russia, it will be a «poor man's rebellion.» Impoverished regions are the weakest link capable of shattering the integrity of the Russian state.

Cheap but dangerous

Russian businessmen in the food industry have recently faced strong pressure from authorities and regulatory bodies to freeze prices for socially important products. The goal of the authorities is clear: ensure cheap products for the population to reduce discontent. Businessmen are forced to comply by cutting production costs. This includes using second-grade raw materials, plant-based proteins and oils instead of animal-based ones, lots of additives, and dyes.

Civic activists recently purchased butter from 19 Russian brands in St. Petersburg stores. 14 turned out to be counterfeits containing no dairy fat at all. Laboratory tests showed that 70 percent of the butter samples were actually plant-based fat spreads. Some samples were rancid and even covered in mold. Meanwhile, the price of butter in St. Petersburg has increased by 70 percent in a year. A similar situation has been observed in all regions of Russia where cheap counterfeits have replaced natural products.

The price of butter has doubled in some regions of Russia. Photo: private collection

Sometimes, counterfeits are not as harmless as in the case of butter. Last November, a scandal erupted in Russia when experts found «meat glue» in popular Russian sausage brands. This is a process called microbial transglutaminase and it is prohibited in Russia. However, Russian meat producers use it to bind proteins tightly in sausage mass, simplifying the production process and reducing costs. Meanwhile, medical studies have shown that «meat glue» reduces immunity, and increases the risk of Parkinson's disease and cancer. It was reported from Tomsk that kefir with a shelf life of... one year has appeared on sale. God and the producers alone know what preservatives were added to it.

Last year, Russia saw a wave of food poisoning due to poor-quality products and violations of cooking technologies. For example, in Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, and Tatarstan, over 200 people fell ill with botulism in the summer after consuming industrially produced bean salad. One victim died. In the Krasnoyarsk Krai, 50 social center residents were poisoned from lunch. In the Caucasus, Kabardino-Balkaria suffered from a gastrointestinal outbreak in September affecting 200 people, with dozens of children hospitalized. In Bratsk, Irkutsk Oblast, 32 people were hospitalized after visiting a cafe.

In January 2025, Perm suffered from salmonellosis: over 80 people fell ill from products of the Khlebnitsa bakery. I believe these negative trends, resulting from sanctions and the diversion of resources from civilian to defense sectors, will only worsen in Russia. As one source from Russia wrote to me: «The people are paying for the war. For killing our Slavic brothers.»

The situation in the consumer market contradicts Putin's boastful claims that Russia's economy faces no problems, continues to grow, the import substitution program is successful, and the food market is not threatened by any shortages. Information from Russia's regions shows that crisis indicators are accumulating in the economy, and the food market is slipping into a zone of turbulence.

However, a social upheaval in Russian society is unlikely. Over 33 years of independence, Russia has faced extensive trials that have increased the population's insensitivity to economic disorder. In 1992, inflation reached 2,600 percent, in 1993, 1,000 percent. In 1996, wages were delayed in budgetary sectors for half a year. Pensioners did not receive pensions for eight months. In Kuzbass, miners who had not been paid for a year blocked the Trans-Siberian Railway and picketed the White House in Moscow. Yet, there was no revolution. Therefore, a 10-percent increase in food prices in 2024 is merely a locally significant irritant after a period of relative stability and prosperity for Russian society over the past 20 years.

Putin is highly sensitive to public opinion, understanding that his reliance on the electorate balances his dependence on oligarchs.

But everything could change if price hikes coincide with increased shortages of essential goods and foodstuffs amid mass unemployment and delays in wage payments. I do not believe this will lead to widespread social protests, but passive resistance such as boycotting elections and obstructing authorities' work at all levels is entirely possible. Putin is highly sensitive to public opinion, understanding that his reliance on the electorate balances his dependence on oligarchs. This could compel Russia's economic powers to make populist decisions to freeze prices and transition to a national distribution system. And then, the countdown will begin, marking the final months of Putin's regime.