SURVEY ⟩ Baltic residents prefer Harris as next US president

A survey conducted by Kantar Emor in the second half of September reveals that residents in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania alike prefer the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. Photo: Brendan Smialowski / AFP / Scanpix

A survey conducted by Kantar Emor in the second half of September reveals that residents in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania alike prefer the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election.

Kamala Harris is favored by about half of respondents in Estonia and Latvia, and by 70 percent in Lithuania. In both Estonia and Latvia, the share of «cannot say» responses is around 30 percent.

In Estonia, the preferences of ethnic Estonians and Russian-speakers differ.

«While 66 percent of Estonians prefer Harris and 16 percent prefer Republican candidate Donald Trump, there is no such preference for Harris among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds,» said Aivar Voog, head of research at Kantar Emor.

Among people of other ethnic backgrounds, 47 percent are neutral, 27 percent would support Harris, and 25 percent would support Trump. Voog pointed out that the greater support for Harris among Lithuanian residents can be explained by the fact that the proportion of people of other ethnic backgrounds in Lithuania is smaller than in Estonia and Latvia.

Voog noted that attitudes towards the presidential candidates also significantly depend on the respondent's party preference. While Harris is preferred as the next US president by the majority of respondents overall, and is especially popular among Reform Party voters, the preferences of supporters of three parties differ from the mainstream.

«Among supporters of EKRE and Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives, nearly 70 percent support Trump, but Center Party supporters also prefer Trump over Harris. It is worth noting that supporters of Isamaa, a conservative party, overwhelmingly prefer Kamala Harris,» he said.

Regardless of personal preferences, half of the respondents in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania believe that Harris will win the elections. One-fifth believe that Trump will win. Nearly two-thirds of respondents find that the outcome of the US presidential election will significantly impact the economies, trade, and security of Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, while less than five percent believe that it will have no effect at all.

Respondents were also asked whether the United States should provide more resources to Ukraine. In Estonia, 48 percent, in Latvia 43 percent and in Lithuania 49 percent said that aid should be increased.

«Here, too, divisions by ethnic background are clearly visible: among Estonians, 61 percent of respondents believe that the United States should allocate more resources to help Ukraine, and only five percent would be in favor of reducing aid. At the same time, among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds, one in five support an increase in aid and 41 percent consider a reduction to be the right move. The same difference based on ethnicity can be seen in Latvia,» said Voog.

Respondents in all three countries believe that the United States' global clout will increase or stay the same if Kamala Harris becomes president. If Donald Trump is elected, it will weaken.

The findings were garnered in a representative sample survey conducted online from Sept. 19-26. A total of 3,160 residents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania aged 16 and above were interviewed.