EDITORIAL ⟩ Oil flows, as does blood

Daily caricature. Illustration: Urmas Nemvalts

• Russia’s shadow fleet is causing problems for the EU.
• The impact of Western sanctions has not been sufficient.
• Europe must act as a united bloc against Russia.

Estonia must contribute in every possible way to the European Union's attempt to impose new sanctions on Russia and enhance the old ones. Sand must be thrown between the gears of the Kremlin's war machine.

Postimees writes that the European Union plans to do something more serious about Russia’s shadow fleet. The latter means that a ship does not sail directly under the Russian flag, but is used by Russia for its own interests, which has allowed Moscow to evade sanctions and use the money from oil exports to fight in Ukraine. Also, the shadow fleet has been one of the reasons why the Russian oil price ceiling has not worked as expected. In 2022, the oil price ceiling was agreed to be 60 dollars per barrel, although Estonia would have expected 30-40 dollars.

However, already when the price ceiling was being introduced, there were voices saying that this is not enough to stop the Russian war machine. The statistics are harsh. Postimees wrote on May 6 how Russia's oil and gas revenues increased by 79 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of 32 billion dollars. At the end of April, an analysis by the Financial Times, for example, showed that Western banks in Russia paid taxes in the amount of more than 800 million euros, which is four times more than the pre-war level. In addition, state-controlled Sberbank recently reported the largest profit and dividend payout in its history – eight billion US dollars.

The Kremlin is like a clever villain in a crime novel, whom the detectives, or in this case the West, are unable to catch in any way.

It is clear that Russia did not start a full-scale war in Ukraine without economic preparation. Although Moscow was hoping for a quick advance on Kyiv in 2022, a solid amount of money was raised for the war effort. And Moscow has managed to continuously increase this amount of money during the war. This has been done despite the sanctions of the European Union and the USA.

Stories of the West about the imminent collapse of the Russian economy have not been proven true. 1917 has not been repeated. While Russia has been playing with full stakes, making deals with China, Iran and the so-called global south, the West, which is economically several times more powerful than Russia, has been arguing with each other and has not been acting as a united bloc. It cannot be said that the sanctions have not worked, but their effect has not been sufficient.

The Kremlin is like a clever villain in a crime novel, whom the detectives, or in this case the West, are unable to catch in any way.

The successful financing of the Kremlin's war machine means that Russia has been able to invade, for example, in the direction of Kharkiv. At the same time, analyses have shown that Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have been more effective than Western sanctions. Although the USA has warned Ukraine not to attack these plants.

Basically, all people or companies doing business with Russia should understand that this is blood money. Estonian diplomats must do everything they can to ensure that the European Union acts as a united bloc against Russia, once again raising the issue of the price ceiling. Then the talk of European unity also has substance.