Regarding a document decisive concerning a key industry for peace in Estonia, its economy and energy security, one would expect any ignoramus reading it to not stumble over childishness. Regrettably, such undesirable experiences are indeed on offer.
Namely, the document is built on the premise that in 2016–2030 global oil prices fill fluctuate from $90 to $110 per barrel.
Meanwhile, institutions like World Bank in its prediction this year suggests oil to average at $61.2 in 2016, $71.9 in 2020, and $88.3 in 2015.
«At the moment the analysis was being compiled, these assumptions about oil price were totally normal. At that moment, a substantially lower assumption would have seemed extremely unrealistic,» said environment ministry’s vice chancellor Ado Lõhmus, to explain the weirdish figures.
One can but shrug at the reply by vice chancellor defending the incompetent price prediction as, according to World Bank data, in January 2001 oil stood at the average of $25 a barrel while four times higher in January 2014 – $102.
«In a fifteen year perspective, I’d suggest the realistic oil price fluctuation to be $20–$200 as during the past half century the oil price has not stayed within the narrow bracket proposed by environmental ministry,» said Tõnis Oja of Postimees writing on finances.
Incompetence of environment ministry in regulating oil shale industry was already a year ago underlined by National Audit Office while oil shale business was fighting the state over environmental fees. «Environmental fees do not fulfil their intended purpose and the alterations/dimensions of said fees are not based essential analysis,» the office said in its memo, advising that the ratification of the development plan be postponed.