A sleepless night spent in Minsk, Belarus by four heads of European states has yielded a rather vague-worded declaration regarding the conflict in Ukraine while still stressing two vital principles – territorial integrity or Ukraine (without a word, though, on Crimea), and the need for a peaceful solution.
The more detailed part of the agreement was signed by representatives of OSCE, Ukraine and Russia, plus two private persons – Mr. Zahhartšenko and Mr Plotnitski (factually representatives of the unrecognised «republics» but never named as such). The agreement promises ceasefire in the conflict area of Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts starting midnight of February 15th, an essential measure thereof being drawback of heavy weaponry from the front during two weeks so that, depending on types of weapons, there would be a minimum 50–140 kilometres between the two sides.
Also important is the «all for all» prisoners swap though far from unclear, for instance, whether that would oblige Russia to release the Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko illegally held there.
In Europe and the world, the agreements drew comments very cautious: in Ukraine, ceasefires have been declared before but they have not held. The main observer of the situation should again be OSCE – whose earlier such endeavours have not proven overly fruitful.
Glancing at the agreement, one notices that no Donetsk or Lugansk «people’s republics» are mentioned therein. The conflict area is Ukrainian territory where Ukrainian law applies. Local elections are promised (ergo the «elections», some time ago held by the Moscow-minded separatists meant nothing). Ukraine promises this year to ratify a new constitution, one considering the Donbas region peculiarities. A weighty item indeed is that latest by the end of this year, Ukrainian central authority must regain control of the state border.
A large question mark, however: how will all that be executed? The agreements offer much space for interpretations; lots or real concerns are essentially avoided (understandably, or else there’d have be no agreement achieved at all). Obstacles and opportunities for the peace plan to fail abound.
Nevertheless, one needs to recognise the EU heads of states, the French President François Hollande and especially the German Chancellor Angela Merkel who have toiled hard to reach at least some kind of a solution in Ukraine, so as to keep the war from further escalating. These past days, Ms Merkel’s shuttle diplomacy has been rather impressive. We don’t know today what the final outcome of this might be. Obviously, however, Europe is lucky to have an experienced, energetic and vigorous leader at helm of Germany, a key country of the continent, in such a troubled time as this.