Spring-coalition in portfolio-gear

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A new Reform Party/Soc Dems government aka spring-coalition now sounds like a fact. Today, hardly anybody believes in the current coalition – with trust lost towards existing partners.

Considering character traits of Siim Kallas and the fact that the new government forms for less than a year, Reform Party will rather stick to ministers-that-be. Why rattle the ministries with fresh faces?

No need to change or replace foreign minister Urmas Paet, the recently appointed culture minister Urve Tiidus, nor justice minister Hanno Pevkur in office a bit over a year.

No-one will be robbing Mr Paet of his opportunity as foreign minister to «stay seen» before EU elections (his chance to be prime minister gone, for now) and, should the minister land in Brussels, for a warm and well-paid job, Reformers will need to launch a new star into the foreign policy orbit. The star launched might be Arto Aas, author of the party’s EU elections programme, heading the European Union Affairs Committee at Riigikogu.  

Considering the strong position maintained in the party by family Rosimannus, environment minister Keit Pentus-Rosimannus will hardly be replaced, though the couple is nastily plagued by messy transactions related to minister’s father’s company Autorollo. Even so, the Reform Riigikogu faction head Jaanus Tamkivi might seem worthy of said portfolio.

Economy to one

Reform might manoeuvre with finance minister Jürgen Ligi and social minister Taavi Rõivas. Mr Kallas may want to keep the tough-talking Mr Ligi in his government as an old brother-in-arms from decades past, a rare liberal still left in Reform Party.

Definitely, Reform will reach to grab the economy ministry, long led by the current coalition’s troublemaker Juhan Parts. (Should the current coalition continue, by some miracle, the squirrels would surely try to replace Mr Parts.) In the new government, Mr Ligi could emerge as economy minister.

For the new-generation minister-politician Taavi Rõivas, a weightier portfolio would look appetizing. The financial one, perhaps.

A question mark would hover over Ministry of Education. Could this come over to Reform Party, from the old coalition’s greatest reformer Jaak Aaviksoo? That depends whether the leading partner will want extra portfolios this time, or will they settle for the existing six-and-six situation.

To find a strong and professional education minister would not be easy for Reformers, nor for soc dems. 

At the same time, there’s no chance and no need to do anything much in education. Considering the short time left for the Kallas coalition – just one year – difficult for them to turn back the great reforms done in higher and general education.

Except for the most contentious changes, firstly in financing of gymnasiums. At that, it would be difficult and meaningless to start turning back gymnasium reform, the creation and strengthening of state gymnasiums.

Looking to upcoming elections, it would surely be good to try and please communes with small gymnasiums – even if short-sightedly. Surely, the voters would love for school support specialists to be taken under the protective wing of state budget.

Who might be Reform Party’s candidate for education minister? Surely Urmas Klaas, chairman of Riigikogu’s Cultural Affairs Committee, would like to carry a ministerial portfolio. 

Social affairs to the other

Who could soc dems think of, as education minister? After the long and torturous time in opposition, the list of those eager to be minister must be long indeed. It’s another matter if any would be fit to manage education. By position in the party, the soc dems faction chief Indrek Saar could be the man; looking around, the post could be attractive for the Narva College headmaster Katri Raig, running for Narva council in soc dems list. Alas, she’s in the «wrong» party – IRL.

To make their face known to voters, in a Reform Party government, soc dems need to grab power in social ministry – for seven long years under Reform Party command.

Eiki Nestor who served as social minister at the turn of the century has no more appetite to be one. As a soc dems figurehead, he has deserved the President of the Riigikogu post. Riigikogu’s Social Affairs Committee member Heljo Pikhof would long to hold a portfolio, having some experience as adviser to minister Nestor.

Also, soc dems might go for Helmen Kütt, member of the same committee and educated as social worker; or, rather, Andrus Ansip’s first government population minister Urve Palo. Ms Palo is the most likely to end up in the government.

The soc dems chairman Sven Mikser simply has to go in the government. The most logical and likeliest place, for him, would be defence ministry – which he led in Siim Kallas’ first government in 2002–2003, while a Centre Party member. Also, Mr Mikser may desire the foreign minister’s portfolio, which also weighs a lot. Still, Reform Party cannot take that away from Urmas Paet, before EU elections.

Minister of internal affairs? A policeman in his soul and by education, the soc dem Andres Anvelt would love to be appointed. Considering his position in the party, who would deny him?

As regional minister, a symbolic Russian person would do soc dems some good. Jevgeni Ossinovski is a fresh face in the party; this fall in Narva, he did a remarkable job at elections.

Agricultural minister’s post would fit a former People’s Union person. Would Kajar Lember, the freshly appointed Tartu vive mayor, be ready to make a switch? Or, perhaps, Riigikogu Environmental Committee member Karel Rüütli?

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