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- Iran poses a deadly threat to Israel.
- The question is whether a major war will break out in the Middle East.
- The acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran has been delayed.
Israel's attack on Iran could escalate into a full-scale war in the Middle East, but the undeniable positive is that Iran won't succeed in obtaining a nuclear bomb anytime soon.
Early on Friday, Israel attacked Iran's main nuclear program facilities with approximately 200 fighter jets, killing three of the country's high-ranking military and several nuclear scientists. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the strike was not a one-off, but that attacks against Iran would continue. Iran has responded by sending 100 drones towards Israel.
It is clear that the attack by Israel marks a sharp escalation of the long-standing conflict between Israel and Iran. But apparently Israeli intelligence had information that suggested Iran was very close to obtaining a nuclear bomb. This would be dangerous for Israel because the ayatollah regime is hostile to Israel's very existence, as is the terrorist group Hamas.
Named after former Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, the Begin Doctrine states that Israel may carry out a preemptive strike if the survival of the state is at stake. Israel has previously acted in accordance with this doctrine – for example, during Begin's tenure in 1981, when it struck Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor, and again in 2007 when it targeted a nuclear reactor in Syria.
Although this is undoubtedly an escalation in the Middle East, the key question lies in the degree of escalation. That is, whether it will lead to a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, and whether other countries will become involved. The extent of escalation also determines how much, if at all, Russia will benefit from the conflict. A prolonged war in the Middle East could divert the West's attention away from Ukraine. Additionally, rising oil prices would bring extra revenue to the Kremlin.
At the same time, Iran's weakening – because Israel's attack and future attacks will cause this – means that one of Russia's main allies in the war with Ukraine is no longer as strong and must increasingly focus on the survival of its own regime. A regime change in Iran would signify a geopolitical earthquake similar to what happened in 1979 when the theocratic regime came to power, but this time it would be in the opposite direction.
Everyone in the West understands that a nuclear-armed Iran that tramples on human rights clearly poses a greater threat to global stability than the Iran of today.
Unlike the situation in the Gaza Strip, where Western opinions are clearly divided, there is much stronger consensus regarding Iran. This was also demonstrated last year during Iran's missile attack on Israel, which was intercepted with the help of several Western allies. Everyone in the West understands that a nuclear-armed Iran that tramples on human rights clearly poses a greater threat to global stability than the Iran of today. Israel has also received support in its current offensive from US President Donald Trump. However, unlike in the past, Iran is not backed by Syria, whose new regime would rather have good relations with the West.
What must Estonia do? Estonia must continue to help secure military and moral support for Ukraine in the West. Although the West's attention is currently understandably on the Middle East, the war in Ukraine isn't going anywhere. The Middle East meanwhile is an issue for the EU as a whole to address.