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- Putin has staked all his political capital on the war in Ukraine.
- The hesitant West is prolonging the war, allowing Putin to keep his regime alive artificially.
- Estonia could become attractive to investors again and serve as an anchor of regional stability.
Russia's aggression in Ukraine is not merely a military conflict – it is the last, desperate attempt of a war criminal, the autocratic dictator Vladimir Putin, to hold on to a throne that has begun to wobble beneath him, former politician and military officer Jüri Toomepuu writes.
It is clear that Putin's power now survives only thanks to the war, which has become the guarantor of his personal security. The initially promised quick victory has turned into endless agony.
The hours of Putin's political bankruptcy
Putin has staked all his political capital on the war in Ukraine, gambling like a player who throws all his chips on a single roulette number. A loss in Donbas or, worse, the Ukrainians taking back Crimea, would be the political death sentence of his regime and the end of his life in the way usually reserved for toppled dictators. He can prolong the war until the inevitable end arrives. That end may play out in one of the following scenarios:
Political collapse – the «Prigozhin moment» – a palace coup in which a trusted confidant, already sharpening a knife, takes power.
Military collapse – the disintegration of the Russian army, reminiscent of a Russian tank column running out of fuel before reaching its target.
Economic catastrophe – hyperinflation or a total economic crash. 38 percent of Russia's budget depends on oil exports, which mainly flow to China and India. If the United States tightens sanctions on those countries, as proposed in a bill under discussion in the US Congress, it would be the final nail in Putin's coffin.
Most likely, all three of these will interact to bring down Putin's regime.
Ukraine's strike on Russian nuclear capability – a strategic breakthrough
Ukraine's June 1 strike against Russia's nuclear arsenal was not just another drone attack. It was a serious blow to Putin's strategic air force. In a single night, Ukraine managed to destroy about a third of Russia's strategic nuclear air power.
This operation, codenamed Pautina, or «Spiderweb,» inflicted real damage to Putin's strategic capability, significantly limiting the Kremlin's ability to carry out large-scale nuclear strikes and deterrence operations against NATO and Ukraine. Pautina was followed by a strike on the pillars of the Kerch Bridge, which is a step toward the liberation of Crimea.
Putin still has not dared to say anything about it, but it can be assumed that the Ukrainians also triggered a widespread new witch hunt for scapegoats, further weakening the Russian military and Putin's power.
For Estonia, this was an important security signal: a strong and successful Ukraine is the most certain guarantee of security for the Baltic states. This means that Russia's ability to launch new aggressions in the region has been significantly reduced, providing Estonia and the entire region with real breathing room and an opportunity to focus on future-oriented development.
Half-measures – the «insufficient dose of antibiotics»
The West's current sanctions have been compared to antibiotics given in doses too weak to cure the disease. With this «IV drip tactic,» Putin has been given time to adapt to the virus, becoming increasingly resistant and dangerous.
The hesitant West is prolonging the war, giving Putin the opportunity to keep his regime alive artificially. Ukraine pays a bloody price for this every day, and Europe's security has become a betting office, where wagers are placed on Putin's every next move.
The myth of a post-Putin nightmare
It is a common fear that Putin's successor might be even worse. But Putin's regime has already created such a humanitarian catastrophe and security crisis that it would be nearly impossible to surpass. Even if a new despot seized power, it would take years or decades before Russia could again head down the path of foreign aggression. It also took Stalin more than ten years to consolidate power before he could start exporting communism, thanks to president Roosevelt's naivety in the final days of World War II, which allowed Stalin to redraw the map of Europe.
Today, Russia can be compared to a terrorist network that resembles Al-Qaeda more than a state. Its cooperation with Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela underscores this dangerous comparison. Russia has become a «mafia empire,» where the state apparatus and organized crime are like twins that even the best surgeon cannot separate.
Putin's Russia is like a dangerous tumor on Europe's body – the only effective way to remove it is by breaking the country into smaller units. Such fragmentation would allow the West to manage the security threat and encourage the emergence of democratic processes.
Russia has become a «mafia empire,» where the state apparatus and organized crime are like twins that even the best surgeon cannot separate.
Putin's fall is inevitable, and his departure is not merely an opportunity but the only path to restoring peace and security. The fall of the dictator would open the door to internal restructuring in Russia, offering hope not only to Ukraine but to the entire world. For that to happen, the West must finally abandon its hesitation and support Ukraine fully and unconditionally.
Post-Putin Estonia
The collapse of Putin's regime and the fragmentation of Russia would create a rare breathing space in terms of security for Estonia. The burden of the defense budget could be significantly reduced, allowing focus to shift to economic growth and social stability. Estonia would once again become attractive to investors and could serve as an anchor of regional stability.
In addition, Estonia would have the opportunity to lead cooperation among the Baltic and Nordic countries in a post-fragmentation world, supporting the emergence and flourishing of democratic processes in Russia's regions. It would be a «new Singing Revolution moment» for Estonia, where geopolitical fear is replaced by confident optimism.
Ultimately, Estonia's security depends on the consistency of Europe and the West in their approach to Russia. When Putin falls, it will open a historic opportunity not only for Russia but for all of Europe – including Estonia – to move toward a peaceful and secure future.