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- The emergence of a new power alliance in Tallinn is likely.
- The Reform Party and the Center Party have something to gain from this.
- But could what is happening please the voters?
It may happen that a few months before the local government elections, the ruling coalition in Tallinn will fall apart and a new one – a coalition of the Reform Party and the Center Party – will emerge. This assumption is supported by the cooperation of these parties in preparing the supplementary budget for Tallinn, where both want to abolish kindergarten place fees. This is a new large fixed expense, which has not been discussed with the current coalition partners.
This does not mean that a new ruling coalition will definitely come, but looking at the history of Estonian local government politics, it must nevertheless be considered likely. Of course, the issue does not lie in abolishing kindergarten place fees. The real reasons and agreements are elsewhere, and place fees are an important issue for residents, which can be played up in the media and used as an excuse to leave the existing governing coalition, while at the same time keeping it in the picture, hopefully picking up plus points before the local elections.
A new coalition also cannot be ruled out because the Reform Party and the Center Party have cooperation experience in both Toompea and Tallinn. For example, in December 2001, the Reform Party left the triple alliance with Isamaa and Mõõdukad (Social Democrats), Maret Maripuu became the chair of the city council and Edgar Savisaar the mayor. The coalition lasted until the 2005 parliamentary elections, which is quite a long time.
Secondly, both parties have been pragmatic in forming governing coalitions. Together, they currently hold the most seats in the Tallinn city council. The Center Party with 32 seats and the Reform Party with 16 seats would form a stable majority that would be easier to manage than the current four-partner coalition, which inevitably has more opposing political interests. The question is, would it make sense to do this for just five months?
Has the new way of doing things taken root in the capital? Has the Center Party changed in the meantime? Not really.
But as hinted above, the Reform Party and the Center Party would look further into the future, as in 2001, or to a longer period already after the local government elections. The issue of the participation of citizens of Russia and Belarus in local elections has been resolved for the time being, and there may not be any other major bone of contention at the parties’ local level. Both parties would have something to gain from this coalition. The Center Party – and Mihhail Kõlvart – would get back into the picture, for example in the position of council chairman, and the Reform Party would get the mayor's position and something positive in the budget that would please the voters.
But could what is happening please the voters? Let us recall that the current Tallinn ruling coalition was born with the promise of doing politics differently in Tallinn. To break the exclusive power of the Center Party and the party-based municipal food chains, to bring more transparency to the city's governance, and to speed up the way things are done. Has the new way of doing things taken root in the capital? Has the Center Party changed in the meantime? Not really. Therefore, a new ruling coalition in the capital, should it be born, would be more of an example of politicking.
*Here, the rhinoceros refers to the mascot of the Center Party