ERKKI KOORT ⟩ Russian intelligence and army fell through the floor

Ukraine attacks military targets, but Russia responds by bombing civilians. Russia's April 24 attack on Kyiv with drones and ballistic missiles. Another bloody attack is also expected in the near future. Photo: Gleb Garanich

• There is no doubt that new attacks will come.
• Ukrainian special services are very effective in Russia.
• Estonia should reconsider its weapons systems procurement.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) organized a spectacular and insanely destructive attack on the Russian Air Force. There is no doubt that Russian intelligence failed, but what should Estonia learn from this, Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.

On June 1, 2025, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) launched an attack on Russian long-range bombers. Both the bombers and an A-50 reconnaissance aircraft, several of which Ukraine has also managed to destroy during the war, were hit.

There have already been assessments that the Ukrainian attack could trigger changes in this war and in military history in general. This is probably true, but let us remember that the attack was planned, prepared and carried out by the civilian service SBU, the Estonian equivalent of which is the Internal Security Service (ISS).

Thus, this time, the attack was not carried out by the army, nor by the Defense Intelligence (HUR), which has previously organized very successful operations in Russia and the occupied territories. These include the attack on the Crimean bridge, the sinking of the flagship Moskva, as well as the killings of war criminals in Russia. With its «military special operation», Russia has created a situation where the only country capable of planning and carrying out special operations of such a scale is Ukraine.

In the wake of this attack, it seems that Russian services are unable to operate even within Russia. The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), and the Federal Security Service (FSB) were unable to obtain advance information about the attack, detect its occurrence, or prevent it.

It is noteworthy that Ukrainian services are able to operate more freely in Russia than Russian special services in Ukraine. In the wake of this attack, it seems that Russian services are unable to operate even within Russia. The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), and the Federal Security Service (FSB) were unable to obtain advance information about the attack, detect its occurrence, or prevent it. The damage from the attack is immense, because Russia does not have the capacity to produce new aircraft in the necessary volume. The resources of the special services are also directed towards the war against Ukraine, and organizations in Russia have weakened. However, previous failures have not led to the dismissal of senior management. Remaining in office after each failure must cause an even greater outburst of loyalty to the ruler. Moreover, according to official reports, «only a few aircraft were damaged and there were no victims».

The SBU did not forget to tease Russia either. The day before the attack, it posted the following message on its X account: «Target. Strike. Destruction. The drones of the Central Operational Command «A» of the SBU work precisely and ruthlessly. We disable the enemy's equipment, warehouses, and manpower. Each of our sorties is minus one advantage for the enemy. Do you want to be part of the team that destroys the Russian Army from the air? Fill out the form.» After such a campaign, there is likely no reason to complain about competition.

There is no doubt that through this operation the world once again witnessed the classic David and Goliath battle. Interestingly, there are other parallels with Israel. Namely, the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, or Mossad, has repeatedly organized similar attacks, where, for example, remote-controlled devices have been brought to Iran to eliminate targets. True, the targets have not been 40+ bombers. Attack drones hidden in trucks were a very simple, effective and simply brilliant solution. In addition, it was also cost-effective, which would appeal to any country's finance minister.

There will definitely be a response to Ukraine’s attack. Given Russian practices, it will be brutal and directed against the civilian population. However, the effects of this attack will not go unnoticed by Russia itself, and the reason is not the large financial impact of the attacks, which allegedly reached seven billion US dollars. The cost of the war has not in any way affected the Russian leadership or deterred it from new attacks.

What could be the lessons for Estonia? The main conclusion could be asymmetry and surprise. Being prepared to launch attacks on the aggressor's territory is the only possible way. In addition, it is worth sending to training all those politicians, officials and officers who said a few months ago that drone technology is developing so quickly that there is no point in buying anything in stock and that it is not certain whether they justify themselves. Interestingly, the same people do not think that missiles and rockets expire. It is worth reviewing once again how many attack drones we can get for the money of «two rockets» and giving them to people who know how and want to deal with the field. Anyone who is currently considering not funding any of the structures dealing with drones in Estonia is acting against our security or is incapable of understanding the future. Oh yes, tanks should not be bought right now after all.

According to information circulating on social media, Putin has left Moscow. There is no way to actually verify this information. It is not impossible that it is assumed that there are «Ukrainian aircraft carriers» still hidden somewhere near Moscow with the aim of attacking the Russian leadership. At least, this is something that Russia itself would do, and therefore Putin’s evacuation is not at all impossible.

Anyone who is currently considering not funding any of the structures dealing with drones in Estonia is acting against our security or is incapable of understanding the future.

The Ukrainian and Russian delegations are scheduled to meet in Istanbul on Monday. Although the Russian delegation is already there, the meeting may not take place. However, the meeting taking place or being cancelled will indicate quite a few things. If the meeting does take place after the June 1 attack, it will indicate Russia's position at a critical juncture in the ongoing war.

There is no doubt that this is not all. The massive wave of attacks against the Russian Air Force and the blowing up of bridges leaves no doubt that more is coming. The Ukrainians will certainly push, but the question now is how the allies will respond.