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- It is difficult for Russia to talk directly to Ukraine.
- The Minsk agreements allowed Moscow to cause confusion.
- Putin continues to try to manipulate Trump.
Russia faces a bigger problem in the negotiations than Ukraine, but one should not assume that Putin has in any way been cornered by Kyiv or Europe. Russia cannot agree to the negotiations, because that would mean recognizing Ukraine's equality and the supremacy of the US, Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.
«I am waiting for Putin personally in Turkey,» Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said quickly after US President Donald Trump had again invited the parties to negotiations. Some analysts and observers described this as a situation that Putin would find difficult to get out of. This is not the case.
In fact, it would be difficult for Putin to go to the meeting in Turkey, but not to avoid it for now. Russian rhetoric has long been structured in such a way that Ukraine is not a real country. This attack became especially extensive in 2014 after the occupation of Crimea, and the tarnishing and undermining of Ukraine grew even larger three or four years before the full-scale invasion.
Putin cannot actually accept the US-sponsored peace mediation simply because that would be acknowledging the supremacy of the US. Moscow cannot show that the US is the global administrator and Moscow is not.
Putin has also cultivated the view that Zelenskyy is not the legitimate president of Ukraine and has managed to partially sell this narrative to the new US administration. As you may recall, the demand of the US for elections in Ukraine was very strong in January.
So, by all accounts, Putin cannot sit down with Zelenskyy, because that would legitimize the current power in Ukraine and recognize Ukraine as an equal state to Russia. He cannot do that and does not want to do that.
Problem with the US
Moscow also has another big problem, and that is the US. The US has started to engage in peace mediation, in which Russia is playing along with its own game. There are several reasons for this. Russia also wants to change the stalemate somehow, but it cannot end the war on these terms. It wants to do it on its own terms. What these terms are exactly, no one knows, not even Moscow itself. The reason is very simple: when Russia drew its red lines, it did not agree to publish them. The same is true with peace, because Moscow's logic is simple: if you set the terms, it may later turn out that you could have obtained better positions.
I spoke with the President of Türkiye @RTErdogan to discuss key details of the meeting in Türkiye, which could help bring an end to the war. I am grateful for his support and readiness to facilitate diplomacy at the highest level. We share a common view on the need for a… pic.twitter.com/BX1pw28f3x
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 12, 2025
Trump is currently being cleverly hoodwinked, but that could change as the US administration has announced possible new sanctions. It was claimed that they would go hand in hand with the EU, but there is no way to be sure until they are imposed.
Putin cannot actually accept the US-sponsored peace mediation simply because that would be acknowledging the supremacy of the US. Moscow cannot show that the US is the global administrator and Moscow is not. The Minsk agreements allowed Moscow to have a big presence at the table, as they were supposed to be negotiations between Ukraine and its «rebel regions.» Now Russia is a party to the conflict, not a mediator, and this bothers the Kremlin.
The Kremlin wants to gain a better position while keeping Trump reasonably satisfied. Although Moscow would like to, it cannot really upset Trump because he is unpredictable. Doing so could mean more aid to Ukraine and tougher sanctions.
Russia must take into account that its stockpiles are largely empty. Moscow knows that a conflict with the US would not be a ground war in which drones would be at least of some use. At the same time, Russia has not forgotten that the US's superiority in the air and intelligence-gathering capabilities are extremely dangerous in the current situation. It is not possible to carry out frontal attacks with small groups against the US, as in Ukraine.
The Minsk agreements allowed Moscow to have a big presence at the table, as they were supposed to be negotiations between Ukraine and its «rebel regions.» Now Russia is a party to the conflict.
It is now known that Zelenskyy will travel to Turkey, even if there is no clear answer as to whether Putin will do so. It is likely that neither Putin nor Trump will go there. Nevertheless, some change or shift may occur, but what it will be will become clear by the end of the week.