RAUL EAMETS ⟩ Coincidence, buddy, it is just coincidence!

Raul Eamets Photo: Rene Lutteru

• Mistakes by people with links to power are treated leniently.
• Force is used against members of the opposition.
• Entrepreneurs are treated as criminals at the first sign of suspicion.

There are too many coincidences in Estonia to write it all off as chance. Decisions are made with bias, and the influence of power structures on everyday life exceeds what is appropriate in a state governed by the rule of law, Bigbank's chief economist Raul Eamets writes.

I am not a fan of conspiracy theories. I do not collect books on the topic or clip articles from newspapers that deal with it. I have also previously been rather skeptical of the term «deep state», which was introduced into our political vocabulary by the leaders of the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE). Especially considering that the term is used in two different senses. Some believe that power structures influence our lives far more than the public sees. Others are convinced that our country is actually run by officials who, when needed, feed politicians decisions that serve their interests and, when needed, apply the brakes to inconvenient ones. In the big picture, it does not really matter which version you choose, both approaches assume that the people actually running the show are not the ones elected to do so.

The credit of trust is not unlimited

Here are some examples. I'm sure it was just a coincidence when the leadership of the Center Party was «taken down» by our power structures one day before a major referendum that deeply polarized society. The result was the resignation of the prime minister and a change of government.

For those interested, I highly recommend the book «Sündikaat,»* which covers drug trade and money laundering, blending real events in Estonia with fictional elements. The picture that emerges vividly illustrates how our power structures operate in cooperation with organized crime in Estonia. Many of the characters are rather easily identifiable, and most of the events described in the book have actually happened. What is somewhat alarming is that we do not really know whether 40, 60 or 80 percent of the book's depiction of this cooperation is true. Any of those numbers could be plausible.

There are quite a few examples where no one was actually convicted. All the cases mentioned involve the same political party. I am sure it is just a coincidence.

We also have numerous examples of the opposite — processes where those at fault (at least based on media reports) were never convicted. For instance, the incident six years ago when Mary Kross, the wife of MP E.-N. Kross, accused EKRE members before an election of throwing stones at her and her dog on a beach. A later investigation found that she simply lied, as mobile phone location data showed she was not at the scene at the time. The criminal case was closed due to lack of public interest. The accusation came before the parliamentary elections and was clearly part of a campaign against EKRE. There are other similar incidents that were brushed under the rug, for example, decisions made during the COVID crisis by Liina Kersna and her adviser Mario Kadastik when purchasing rapid tests without considering competing offers, allegedly resulting in a two-million-euro overpayment compared to market price. The Ministry of Finance opened and soon after closed a misdemeanor investigation. Keit Pentus-Rosimannus' Autorollo saga was under investigation and media scrutiny for years. The case went through all court levels, and the Supreme Court ultimately rejected creditors' claims against Pentus-Rosimannus in a civil suit. All these cases involve the same political party. I am sure it is just a coincidence.

Whose interests are at play?

The next example is about a state run by officials. Everyone involved (researchers, entrepreneurs, politicians) has been made to understand by Finance Ministry officials that it is impossible to implement a NUTS2 regional division in Estonia. First, they say it simply cannot be done, and second, it is not practical. The idea would be to split Estonia into two notional regions: Harju County and the rest of the country. The European Union has a rule that regional aid can be granted to areas where GDP per capita is below 75 percent of the EU average. In Tallinn, GDP is at 120 percent of the EU average; elsewhere in Estonia, it is below 60 percent, and in Lääne County, only 47 percent. We are now in a situation where Tallinn's high living standards push Estonia's overall GDP figure above the 75 percent threshold, which means the country is likely to lose eligibility for aid in the next budget period. Wealthier EU countries use this kind of NUTS2 model to support their peripheral regions. Our southern neighbor, Lithuania, was the latest to implement such a two-region system. But here, our officials have closed ranks and declared that it simply cannot be done. Instead of exploring how it could be done in a way that would prevent Estonia's peripheral regions from dying out. Of course, that would be extra work.

It was likely just a coincidence when the leadership of the Center Party was «taken down» by our power structures one day before a major referendum that deeply polarized society.

Recently, Heiti Hääl wrote a rather emotionally charged piece in Eesti Päevaleht about a number of court cases where the circuit court completely overturned county court rulings or where power structures openly flexed their muscles in broad daylight. He cited the cases of Küllike Namm, Hillar Teder, Baltic Workboats and Parvel Pruunsild. Some of these cases have only had a first-level court decision; some have reached the Supreme Court, and some have not gone to court yet. In summary, the author draws the logical conclusion that our country is not governed by elected politicians but by power structures, officials and, to some extent, the media. The list of cases could be extended, for example with the long-running court saga of Kajar Lember, or with the many deputy mayors of Tartu who have been «taken down» by power structures.

Read between the lines

This list of cases is by no means exhaustive. These are merely examples that have received media coverage. In light of all this, one must give credit to entrepreneurs who still dare to do business in Estonia, because you never know where the next blow might come from. Estonia is so small that, past a certain level, everyone knows everyone else, and sometimes work matters are discussed in the sauna or during a coffee break at a conference. The media has clearly assumed the role of judge, as all the individuals mentioned have already been declared guilty and publicly impaled in the media long before any actual court rulings.

Our state is not run by those elected to govern it. One must give credit to entrepreneurs who still dare to do business in Estonia, because you never know where the next blow might come from.

These stories reminded me of a cartoon published during the Soviet era, more precisely, a comic strip by Priit Pärn. The idea of the strip is as follows. A man watches ants on the ground and comments: «I wonder, what these ants are up to?» «Aha, it seems they are starting to form a shape.» «Looks like they are forming letters, very, very interesting.» In the final panel, the ants have formed the sentence: «COINCIDENCE, BUDDY, IT IS JUST COINCIDENCE.»

«Ants» (1981), by Priit Pärn

«Sipelgad» 1981 Photo: Priit Pärn

1. Ha! Ants! Such tiny creatures — downright insects — but just look how they scurry... scurry around with no purpose...

2. But what if it is not meaningless... Maybe there is a purpose... No, surely not... But there seems to be some pattern... Or maybe it just looks that way... But still...

3. But indeed — there seems to be something... Or perhaps not? They might just be oscillating back and forth... But no... Such order is unlikely to be random... Must investigate...

4. No, no, that cannot be! It seems like they know why and where they are going... As if they are gathering... But no, that must just be coincidence... A fluke...

5. But what if it is not a coincidence? Maybe they do have... intelligence... Maybe they want to send me some kind of message through their movement...

6. No, surely they do not... But what if they do?... I can clearly see some shapes... No, that cannot be... Just random convergence...

7. Better jot it down, just in case... So that I have something... that...

8. Write it all down, quickly... — COINCIDENCE, BUDDY, IT IS JUST COINCIDENCE

9. So it was coincidence after all... Well, that figures.

* «Sündikaat» means «Syndicate» in English. The book, by Roland Tamm, has not been translated into English.