EDITORIAL ⟩ An ever less likely truce

Oh, you wanted a truce for the holidays? Hang on, I'll get you one. Illustration: Urmas Nemvalts

• The United States is threatening to pull out of peace mediation.
• This might open a door for Europe.

The short-term truce declared by Putin once again turned out to be a mirage. Even the US mediators have now begun to doubt that a ceasefire is possible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a truce for the Easter holidays, intended to last from 6 p.m. on April 19 to the evening of April 21. This year, both Western and Orthodox churches are celebrating Easter on the same weekend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promised that Ukrainians would also stop firing if the enemy did the same.

However, reports from Ukraine show that Russian forces did not keep that promise. Their activity did slow down, but in some places on the front, they did not stop the shelling and attacks. It rather seems they were trying to give the impression of a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Sunday, April 20, marked the date that Finnish President Alexander Stubb had earlier suggested might be a possible deadline for a truce agreement between Ukraine and Russia. There is no truce in sight.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Friday that the United States might soon give up efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia unless there are signs of progress. He was backed the same day by President Donald Trump, though Trump did not set any deadlines. The US leadership is likely frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations to secure a truce in a war that Trump, during his presidential campaign, promised to end within 24 hours.

But if the United States does back out of the talks, perhaps it is finally time for Europe to step up and prove itself as a credible peace broker.

Rubio and Trump's statements raise the question of whether the United States is even still interested in achieving a truce between Ukraine and Russia?

Another question arises about whether it makes sense in this case for Ukraine to sign a minerals deal with the United States if it is meant to be, in a way, compensation for US mediation. The counterargument, of course, is that the presence of US economic interests would already provide Ukraine with a degree of security guarantee.

But if the United States does back out of the talks, perhaps it is finally time for Europe to step up and prove itself as a credible peace broker. This would immediately raise a host of issues, such as acceptable terms for peace, the deployment of European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, and so on.

Ultimately, everything still hinges on Russia's actions. It is unlikely that the West can sway Vladimir Putin with talk alone. Additional sanctions and other means of pressure will likely have to come into play.