SANDRA LAUR ⟩ Has the war in Ukraine actually opened the Reform Party’s eyes?

Landmines during the military exercise of the Estonian Defense Forces. Photo: Eesti Kaitsevägi

• The Reform Party discovered the importance of national defense when the full-scale war broke out.
• Looking at our neighbors, the score is 2-0 in their favor.
• There is very little time left to correct errors.

The recent war of words between former Defense Ministry secretary general Kusti Salm and Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur raised a necessary question among the public: is national defense actually being promoted or is it just a conjuring trick, Sandra Laur (Center Party), a student of international relations at King's College London, writes.

It's an old adage that when it comes to politicians, one should not look so much at what they say, but what they do. But did we get a convincing answer to the question? The debate tended to get bogged down in technicalities, leaving us wondering whether the truth lies with Salm or Pevkur.

Sometimes a historical perspective helps to clarify the picture. A look at the Reform Party's national defense initiatives and failures gives the public reason to be skeptical. We cannot be sure that the Reform Party has understood the need to increase defense capabilities and is not presenting us with political-technological conjuring tricks.

Let us recall that the Reform Party only discovered the importance of the issue of national defense for itself when the full-scale war in Ukraine broke out, and this paved the way for their election victory in 2023. However, if we look at the Reform Party's attitude towards the development of national defense over the past couple of decades, a much sadder picture emerges – the history of the Reform Party can be called the history of dismantling Estonia's national defense. It has systematically acted contrary to the recommendations of military experts, while simultaneously proclaiming to the public how «civilian control must be maintained» and how «Estonia is better protected than ever before.»

As the party that has been in power the most in the last two decades, the Reform Party is responsible for the fact that the defense forces have been chronically underfunded. They did not wake up in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, or in 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and began military operations in Donbas.

As a result of the Reform Party's inaction, Estonia continues to lack a strong defense industry that would help finance the defense budget.

Several minesweeping ships were purchased for 800 million kroons, while minelaying and anti-ship capabilities were neglected for decades. Equipment essential for warfare – tanks, howitzers, etc. – was not purchased even when Western countries offered it to Estonia at a so-called friend price. No one is offering us military equipment at a friend price anymore.

As a result of the Reform Party's inaction, Estonia continues to lack a strong defense industry that would help finance the defense budget. Although we have the capacity to produce cartridges, projectiles, mines, and assemble small arms, there is no clear national strategy for how to harness this potential. This would require investment from large manufacturers, cooperation between companies, and a willingness by the state to purchase local production.

Looking at our neighbors, the score is 2-0 to our disadvantage. Latvia has built a Patria armored vehicle assembly plant, while Lithuania operates a projectile component factory. Estonia initially signed a memorandum of understanding with Finland and Latvia, but then decided to withdraw from the offer, citing its plan to start producing similar armored vehicles itself. Sweden and Germany have now also joined the CAVS program, from which Estonia withdrew. Patria was ready to deliver 20 armored vehicles to Estonia already before the end of 2023 if we had rejoined the program. Unfortunately, our promised independent production fell through and now we are sourcing the necessary components from Turkey – a move that does not support either our economy or military independence.

No military expert worth their salt has ever recommended a professional army for a country like Estonia, yet the Reform Party – Jürgen Ligi was Estonia«s minister of defense from 2005 to 2007 – seriously wanted to abolish conscription and switch to a professional army. Even as late as 2010, two years after Russia»s attack on Georgia, Ligi called conscription service costly and irrelevant. According to him, Estonia does not need a mass army, but professional units.

In the late 2000s, once again after the Russian invasion of Georgia, the Reform Party government, under the pretext of cost-cutting, disbanded Estonia's militarized border guard, which had been built up since the 1990s on the Finnish model. The task of the military border guard is to ensure the first line of resistance on the state border. Currently, Estonia is the only country in our region whose borders are guarded by the police.

The Estonian state could have withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines and limits our war-fighting capabilities, long ago, but the Reform Party was against it even in 2023. And this was the case in a situation where a member of their own party, former defense chief Ants Laaneots, was one of the MPs who submitted the bill to withdraw from the convention. On the other hand, the Reform Party, represented by Marko Mihkelson, informed us from the Riigikogu rostrum that withdrawing from the convention is unconstitutional, does not comply with the principles of Estonia's foreign policy, and is almost comparable to a call to have Estonia withdraw from NATO. If you don't believe me, read the Riigikogu transcript (12.01.2023).

Even immediately after the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, the Reform Party argued that Estonia did not need air defense and other new capabilities. However, the government considered it necessary to give a large part of our cannons and ammunition to Ukraine, even though it would take years to procure replacements.

The government introduced a «security tax», but it is unclear how much of it will actually go towards defense spending.

It is no less important to note that in 2021, one year before the full-scale war against Ukraine, a record 459 active-duty soldiers left, were laid off or were discharged from service in Estonia. Active-duty soldiers who were not vaccinated against the coronavirus were dismissed without legal basis or military necessity. This action cannot be interpreted as anything other than further thinning out the already thin national defense.

Has anything improved? The share of defense spending in GDP continues to increase, as if the country has embarked on a course of correcting its mistakes. At the same time, the government introduced a «security tax», but it is unclear how much of it will actually go towards defense spending. Recently, the media reported that a swimming pool and spa center will be built from the defense budget in Tapa (which is Pevkur's electoral district). There have also been delays in the construction of bunkers on the Estonian-Russian border under Pevkur»s leadership. Now that it has finally been decided to leave the Ottawa Treaty, Defense Minister Pevkur has announced that Estonia has no plans to develop, stockpile, or use anti-personnel mines, which have been banned until now. This is reminiscent of the anecdote about Winnie the Pooh, who hid a jar of honey and, as a deception tactic, left a sign saying «There is no honey here».

If Danish intelligence is to be believed, then the possible scenario after the war in Ukraine ends is that in six months Russia will be able to wage a local war in one of its neighboring countries. There is very little time left to correct errors. The time for the Reform Party's conjuring tricks should be irrevocably over.