ERKKI KOORT ⟩ The Russian army cannot cease hostilities because the consequences would be even worse

It is difficult for Russia to end the war because it allows it to postpone addressing problems in the regions. The war is economically beneficial both to the oligarchs and even part of the general population. Street sweepers clearing snow near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow. Photo: SERGEI ILNITSKY

• In the short term, the war is beneficial to Russian society.
• After the war ends, uncomfortable societal issues will need to be addressed.
• Developments in Europe are unfavorable for Russia.

Although the US president wants to portray himself as a peacemaker, and Ukraine has already expressed willingness for a ceasefire, Russia cannot easily afford peace, Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.

In reality, both warring sides need a pause. Troop replenishment continues, but it would be wise to restock supplies and restore armored vehicle capabilities.

From Russia's perspective, the first problem is that the objectives of the «special military operation» have not been achieved. Ukraine has neither been conquered nor forced into peace. Military strength in Ukraine has actually increased, contrary to Russia's previous goals. Clearly, Russia has a problem with recognizing Ukraine as a state in its own right. Ukraine has long been portrayed as a failed state and targeted for subjugation to Moscow's control. How does one negotiate with someone they do not consider their equal?

The Kremlin understands very well that the war in Ukraine has helped burn through European and US weapon stockpiles on the battlefield and postponed a direct conflict.

However, Russia needs Ukraine for several reasons. Firstly, it allows for the creation of a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Secondly, Russia itself is facing a dramatic population decline and immense immigration pressure from Central Asia and China. For survival, Russia needs more people, and it considers Belarusians and Ukrainians most suitable for the task. Children kidnapped from Ukraine are being raised as Russians, and new settlers are being brought into occupied Ukrainian territories from other regions of Russia. Last week, Putin announced that Ukrainian citizens must leave the occupied territories. Russian passports are being forcibly imposed, and schools are being used to assimilate the population.

More problems on the horizon

Moscow is waging its war of aggression based on feudal-era logic: conquer land, take control of resources, and enslave the people. Once a population is subdued, it is used to pursue further conquests. The Soviet Union operated similarly, and Russia continues that pattern. The people of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk were the first to be mobilized for further invasions. Crimea was a slightly different case, but mobilization was carried out there too, including among minorities.

Russia mobilized everyone it could from Donetsk and Luhansk to fight against the rest of Ukraine. Had it conquered all of Ukraine, the same would have been done there to launch attacks on other countries. A tank in Donetsk on April 6, 2024. REUTERS Photo: Alexander Ermochenko

Russia has been placed on a wartime footing—hard to reach, and even harder to reverse. The war industry, working in multiple shifts, has reduced unemployment in many provinces and increased incomes. Statistically, Russia shows economic growth, but manufacturing shells and firing them immediately does not create real national wealth. The situation has been aptly compared to an economy on steroids.

Recruitment for war and the use of various methods to pressure vulnerable groups into service has reduced the number of prisoners and thinned out the ranks of ethnic minorities. In more remote regions, there has been a loss of people, but compensation payments, recruitment bonuses, and war plunder from Ukraine have increased local prosperity and purchasing power. The end of this trend will challenge the central government to deal with poverty.

From Russia's perspective, the first problem is that the objectives of the «special military operation» have not been achieved. Ukraine has neither been conquered nor forced into peace.

Reintegrating troops into civilian life will be challenging, as war has broken and hardened people. Many will certainly not return to their pre-war professions. Alcoholism, violence, and organized crime are just a few keywords. Ukraine will face the same issue.

What to keep in mind

Although Russia destroyed its professional army units and special forces in the early months of the war, it now has a more effective fighting force than before. While a variety of «ragtag» troops still reach the front, one must remember that those who could not fight died quickly, and those who survived learned to fight. The Russian military is not the second-best army in the world, but it is one of two militaries with extensive combat experience and readiness.

Russia is continuing full-force recruitment, and its information space tries to convince people that victory is very near. AFP Photo: Olga Maltseva

Another important aspect is that Russian society is prepared for the continuation of conflict. The war remains economically beneficial for both oligarchs and ordinary people, and the vast majority of society lives within an information bubble that promotes the idea of imminent victory. The US president's initiative for negotiations has allowed Russia to show its society that it was the United States that came seeking reconciliation. The key message is that Russia has been fighting the United States in Ukraine, not Kyiv. Putin has managed to convince society that Moscow's victory is near. This message is now used in recruitment campaigns, appealing to people to «join the victorious force before the victory». Everyone must understand that soon it might be too late.

In more remote regions, there has been a loss of people, but compensation payments, recruitment bonuses, and war plunder from Ukraine have increased local prosperity and purchasing power.

Currently, Russia is struggling with its war machinery. According to Ukrainian data, around 10,000 tanks have been destroyed. There is no doubt that this number is inaccurate, as precise battlefield statistics are impossible. Some destroyed tanks have been counted multiple times—such as those hit simultaneously—but even if the true figure were half, it would still be more than any country besides the United States even possesses. Russia's production levels are insufficient, but it continues to seek solutions. Military equipment from Iran and North Korea has been a significant help and will continue to be.

US special envoy Witkoff seems to believe that during a phone call between the presidents, a process was agreed upon to reach a ceasefire. In reality, Trump's peace initiative has handed Putin a strong set of cards. Photo: TIMOTHY A. CLARY

One more risk looms in the future. Fear the young officers. When the old generals leave, the way will be open for a new generation. The experience of older generals comes primarily from the wars in Chechnya and Syria. No actual fighting occurred during the annexation of Crimea, and both that and the war in eastern Ukraine starting in 2014 were primarily carried out by special services and special forces. In the three years since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, young officers have gained real battlefield experience. They are building careers and will eventually replace the old generals. As a result, the Russian army will become more combat-capable.

What can we do?

Estonia must maintain confidence together with its allies and continue investing in protecting society. The European Union has introduced a white paper outlining its strategic direction, but that must now be filled with real content.

The US president's initiative for negotiations has allowed Russia to show its society that it was the United States that came seeking reconciliation. The key message is that Russia has been fighting the United States in Ukraine, not Kyiv.

The good news is that there is much more happening in Europe's defense industry than just a few months ago. At least for now, many European leaders are eager to proceed quickly and enhance defense capabilities. Moscow has repeatedly expressed concern about Europe's rearmament. The Kremlin understands very well that the war in Ukraine has burned up US and European weapons on the battlefield and delayed direct conflict. But more thorough preparation is making Moscow increasingly nervous.

High Representative Kaja Kallas and Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius presenting the white paper at a press conference. Photo: Yves Herman

At the same time, personal vendettas and predictions of troubled times in the next year or two do not help us move forward. Panic and anxiety will not help, but confidence and close cooperation with allies are more important than ever. Preparing for comprehensive national defense in all its aspects is essential.

We need to be consistent, set ambitious goals, inspire others, and remember that our strength still lies in smart and asymmetric problem-solving.