ERKKI KOORT ⟩ Putin is again doing what he does best

Russian ruler Putin has been lying to Western leaders for decades. Now he's been given another chance to do so by the Trump administration. Photo: Maxim Shemetov

• Russia has not abandoned its goals.
• The assumption of the United States seems to be that Russia cannot be changed.
• Trump offered Putin an opportunity to lie confidently.

The US-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have offered Putin a rare opportunity to emerge from isolation and do what he is, unfortunately, good at, Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.

It is clear that Russia has not abandoned its goals regarding Ukraine. Given the unexpected situation, the Kremlin sees very clearly that a window of opportunity has opened. Russia naturally understands that it is currently impossible to defeat Ukraine militarily, but the intensity of hybrid attacks and intelligence operations continues. Moscow's hopes may never be fulfilled, and achieving a 100 percent result is likely impossible under current conditions, but the problem also is that Putin has been given the impression that it is worth trying.

«A stable genius». Donald Trump has consistently delivered Russia's talking points and offered Putin a way out of isolation. Meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office of the White House, he accused the latter of being unwilling to make peace. Photo: CNP/AdMedia/SIPA

The US, led by Trump, has adopted a plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. In general, when resolving conflicts, it is necessary to make concessions or exclude those who are unwilling or unable to make concessions. In the equation for ending Russia's war of aggression, the US seems to have chosen a path according to which the constant is Putin and the variable is Zelenskyy. The US is undoubtedly taking into account which of the countries is a nuclear power and which is not. The possible chaos in Russia after Putin has the same frightening effect on the US and, in fact, on many other Western countries as the collapse of the USSR did. Back then, many countries also chose the USSR as the constant in this equation, while we were supposed to be the variables.

Breaking out

The logic of the current US administration is actually very similar to that of the early 1990s. A weakened but still belligerent nuclear power is teetering. It could break up into even smaller pieces, and the consequences are considered unpredictable. The most dangerous thing was then and is still considered to be the uncontrolled spread of nuclear weapons and their possible falling into the hands of terrorists.

Moscow cannot conclude a ceasefire with Ukraine, because from their point of view Ukraine is not a state. Besides, there is no ceasefire in a «special military operation». There can only be victory.

Attempts are made to maintain nuclear weapons as constants, but it was precisely the abandonment of nuclear weapons after Ukraine's independence that has partly brought us to the current war. At the same time, developments have led to a point where several European countries are talking about the need to have nuclear weapons.

It is certainly in the US interest to end the war, because it is too expensive and distracts from other things. What the price will be is a separate matter. At the moment, the price seems very high for everyone except Moscow.

Russia has constantly threatened to use nuclear weapons and violated the Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. However, a situation has now arisen where more and more countries are talking about the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Photo: Sergei Bobylev / TASS

The Kremlin has seized the opportunity offered to Russia to break out of isolation. As expected, Putin immediately rejected the US ceasefire proposal and put forward additional conditions. The negotiations largely fell back to 2021, when it was demanded that NATO troops be moved to the 1997 line.

The Russian leader's reaction to the 30-day ceasefire was cautious. A ceasefire would allow Moscow to gather troops, ammunition and drones for a new attack. However, Russia seems to understand that a pause would also give Ukraine an opportunity to prepare better. This is how Vladimir Putin expressed his fears about the ceasefire at a joint press conference with the Belarusian leader. He specifically mentioned the continuation of mobilization and training for soldiers, as well as the continuation of weapons supplies.

Lying

Putin appeared much more confident at this press conference with the Belarusian ruler than he had been just a few months ago. He did what he has been doing for the past 25 years – lie confidently.

Russia also needs an end to the war, but not in the form of a truce, but in the form of a victory. Right now, the potential truce is being packaged as their victory. Moscow cannot conclude a truce with Ukraine, because in their view the two sides are not equal. At least they themselves feel this and have repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine is not a state. Besides, there is no ceasefire in a «special military operation». There can only be victory.

Achieving a 100 percent result is likely impossible for Russia under current conditions, but the problem also is that Putin has been given the impression that it is worth trying.

Putin has been lying blatantly for a very long time. His behavior is very KGB-like, where promises made to the enemy are not to be kept. Negotiations with the US have opened up this possibility again, because at least Putin thinks he has found someone who is willing to believe his lies.

Unfortunately, the actions of the US administration leave no doubt that Putin and the Russian system are being underestimated. People with 25+ years of experience are being met by officials who have little knowledge of global politics but are very loyal to Trump. Based on the current situation, it is clear that they cannot recognize moments when the other side pretends to play along.

The US administration underestimates Russia's ability to negotiate. Russia is essentially a large intelligence service without civilian control, and Putin has always been able to make Western leaders believe that there is something to talk to him about. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz during negotiations with Ukraine, during which the latter accepted the proposal for a ceasefire. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

There is nothing particularly strange about Russia not immediately agreeing and presenting its own conditions. This is the point of negotiations, to set better conditions for oneself. It is also clear that Moscow is trying to play the game in a way that makes everyone feel that Ukraine is dragging its feet. The only thing needed is to set conditions that are essentially impossible to fulfill.

Even if a ceasefire is agreed, it will not last. This was also shown by the war to occupy eastern Ukraine in 2014. Constant ceasefire violations and provocations could become a daily part of life in this case as well.

In the equation for ending Russia's war of aggression, the US seems to have chosen a path according to which the constant is Putin and the variable is Zelenskyy.

Putin has no problem confirming his «readiness» for negotiations, blaming Ukraine, and pretending to be looking for solutions. The worst thing is that he has been doing this to world leaders for 25 years, and even now there is a man who is trying to find a solution, even though it's obvious where it will end.