VESA VASARA ⟩ Ukraine will determine its own peace

Vesa Vasara. Photo: Sven Tupits

• Finland fought alone and received too little aid from the West.
• Is history now repeating itself in Ukraine?
• Ukraine's fate will not necessarily mirror Finland's.

March 13 marks 85 years since the signing of the Winter War peace treaty. Finland's Ambassador to Estonia, Vesa Vasara, writes about the significance of that day and the current situation of Ukraine.

My first discussion about foreign policy happened when I was a preschooler, with my father's uncle Taavet. He was hewing a fence post with an axe in the woodshed. My older relatives always talked about the war and the ceded Karelia. A child's ears hear everything, and the stories stuck with me. My uncle had served in the Winter War as a horseman—he had already been too old for frontline combat. He recalled how the Russians wasted his horse—those too were taken to war. Some of the surviving, terrified horses could be reclaimed from Lappeenranta after the war. I asked him why we had given Karelia to the Russians. My always-grumpy uncle slammed his axe into the chopping block and snapped at me: «Otherwise, the Russians would have taken all of Finland!» That single axe strike made things clear to me for life.

The Moscow Peace Treaty ended the Winter War 85 years ago, on March 13, 1940. A war that Finland did not start. A war made possible by the monstrous deal between Stalin and Hitler, where the latter sold Stalin something that was never his to give. Estonians know this deal well from their own history and are likely familiar with Finland's story—thousands of fallen, hundreds of thousands of evacuated Karelians, and territory taken away by an imposed peace. Finland fought alone and received too little help from the West. Independence barely survived, partly because the Soviet Union feared it might still be drawn into war with the United Kingdom and France. After all, Hitler did not defeat France until April 1940, and he never conquered the United Kingdom.

Finns do not commemorate the start of the war on November 30, 1939, but families remember their fallen on the day of peace. The Association of Fallen Soldiers' Relatives used to organize memorial services to mourn the dead and give thanks for independence. On the day of the peace treaty in 1980, I accompanied my mother, who had lost her father as a little girl, to the cathedral. Even President Kekkonen was there—perhaps that is why it remains in my memory. During his long tenure, Kekkonen tried to teach Finns how to coexist peacefully with a dangerous neighbor and endure limitations on foreign policy sovereignty. Some accepted the lesson, but few truly believed in this so-called friendship. Everyone remembered all too well what the neighbor was capable of.

Now, efforts are being made to achieve peace in Ukraine. Ukraine, too, has been fighting alone. However, it has received aid from the West, including weapons. Not enough to win, but not so little as to lose. Finland, Estonia, and other neighbors of Russia have done much and continue to support Ukraine. After three years of war, Ukraine is being given advice, and now even orders are coming from across the Atlantic. There is talk of ceasefires, security guarantees, and territorial concessions. Finland, too, was advised and encouraged in the winter of 1939-40: hold on a little longer, and we will send 50,000 British and French troops to help. Alongside their selfless aid, they also had their own interests—securing Norway's ports and Northern Sweden's iron ore from Hitler's Germany. Later, during the armistice, Finland's nickel reserves in Petsamo became strategically important, but that is another story. No one had even heard of rare earth metals back then.

Ukraine's fate will not necessarily mirror Finland's. Despite all the pressure, Ukraine will ultimately decide for itself what it will do.

The Finnish government and especially Field Marshal Mannerheim knew that help would not arrive in time, and if peace was not made through concessions, occupation awaited. Since the front had been holding for some time, the bitter Moscow Peace Treaty came as a surprise to some in the rear. In the Continuation War, Finland sought compensation, with well-known results.

Is history now repeating itself in Ukraine? Of course not. History is not a photocopier, and we are not robots, although there are long periods in history, such as Russia's centuries-long imperialist and autocratic traditions, that have tormented its neighbors. Russia has not come to terms with its past. It is often said that those who do not learn from past mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Germany learned and became a democracy; Russia did not.

Ukraine's fate will not necessarily mirror Finland's. Despite all the pressure, Ukraine will ultimately decide for itself what it will do—just as Finland did. Ukraine continues to receive support; it is not as alone as Finland was in the spring of 1940. While Finland was fighting for its survival, Western Europe was already engulfed in a major war, leaving little chance to help small peripheral states, even if they had wanted to. Now Europe has the opportunity and the duty to learn from history. Evil does not stop unless it is stopped. In the spring of 1940, the United States wanted to stay far from European wars. How did that story end?

On March 14, 1940, Marshal Mannerheim issued his final order of the war to his soldiers. It ended with these words: «We are proudly aware of our historic duty, which we have fulfilled: the defense of Western civilization, our heritage for centuries. But we also know that we have paid, down to the last penny, the debt we owed the West.»

Ukraine does not owe the West anything either. Slava Ukraini!