EDITORIAL ⟩ The Reform Party's final lifeline

«One of my poodles is quite tame, but the other one is completely nuts.» – «Where have you put my face, you stupid animal!» Illustration: Urmas Nemvalts

• Government overhaul may still succeed.
• The worldview of the Reform Party and the Social Democrats is very different.
• Estonia 200 has no other option than to play along with the Reform Party.

There have been tensions in the government for some time, which have reached a new level after Minister Piret Hartman (SDE) spoke about requirements for donated food, which Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform Party) publicly criticized. Grumbling has also been heard from others in the Reform Party in recent days.

The differences in worldview with the Social Democrats cannot come as a surprise to the Reform Party, of course. They have been together with the Social Democrats in various coalitions before. But the current Social Democrats are no longer the Mõõdukad (Moderates) they were in the previous century.

Most of the time, coalitions with smaller partners that have agreed to fulfill the Reform Party's most important election promises in order to remain in power have suited the Reform Party. This time, the situation with the Social Democrats in the government seems different, and it finally seems that Newton's third law, which states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, also applies in politics. In this case, we add an exception to the rule that under certain conditions, a larger political body can also revolve around a smaller one.

There are probably other reasons besides the influence of the Social Democrats, but the Reform Party is increasingly losing face in this coalition and it seems that Lauri Läänemets is vying for the position of the real leader of the government. While the Reform Party once stood for a market economy, entrepreneurship and economic development, now the first thing that comes to mind is putting public finances in order and eliminating the tax hump, the former of which remains a substitute activity without significant cuts in the state sector and the latter is not the most important in terms of economic development.

Add to this the contradictions with the definition of the voter base for local elections, where the Social Democrats have reluctantly agreed to strip Russian citizens of their right to vote, but still want to grant voting rights to gray passport holders. There are approximately 60,000 of these stateless persons in Estonia.

The current tussle in the coalition is understandable, as the Reform Party's support among eligible voters has dropped to 16 percent, already behind both Isamaa and Estonian Conservative People’s Party (EKRE). The Center Party is following them quite closely, and the aforementioned Social Democrats are not far behind.

The Reform Party should present the Social Democrats with the ultimatum: either you support the basic policy theses that are beneficial to Estonia, or you leave the government.

Right now is the right time, or even high time, for the Reform Party to rethink its goals and present the Social Democrats with the ultimatum: either you support the basic policy theses that are beneficial to Estonia, or you leave the government. The three whales that would be beneficial to both Estonia and the Reform Party would be the following – local government voting rights only for Estonian citizens (plus residents from EU member states), a review of tax increases, and decisive cuts to the state sector.

Together with Estonia 200, the Reform Party would have a narrow majority in parliament, which can probably count on additional support from other groups and also from the row by the window. Estonia 200 will not be a problem, because the members of the party, the rating of which has been below the election threshold for a long time, are probably already quietly considering what they will do in the future.

The Reform Party still has a chance.