ERKKI KOORT ⟩ New government faces difficult decisions in security

The new government appeared to have come together quickly already at the press conference covering the government crisis. The government must exhibit similar speed when making decisions regarding security. Photo: Tairo Lutter

• Attention cannot be focused only on projectiles.
• Russia will likely increase hybrid attacks.
• Broad-based preparation ensures coping in crises.

The new government faces several challenges in security and broad-based national defense that will test its resolve, Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.

The government has collapsed and the process of forming a new one began already before the decision was announced. However, a new government never starts from scratch, and there would also be no time for that. The world is turbulent, and maintaining Estonia's security requires immediate and at times relatively radical action.

The new potential coalition has confirmed its commitment to national defense, and there are various percentages being discussed for military defense. The news also reported that the minister of defense will again approach the government with a proposal on how to strengthen military national defense.

This is of course the right direction, but simply buying ammunition will not help if we do not know where to fire it in real time and we cannot control the result. I have not heard that in addition to buying shells, we are equally dealing with, for example, artillery radars or other simpler devices that would help us operate more effectively. It is possible that everything has been thought of, but the current debate does not address them, nor does it leave any certainty that this has been thought through.

One can be sure that after Russia emerges from isolation, Moscow will begin planning more hybrid operations and increase intelligence activities.

It is also worth revisiting the experiences of the war in Ukraine. This is a war with drones, but there is a constant perception that the technology is not yet advanced enough to invest in it. Of course, drone technology is developing at a tremendous speed, and the war favors the development of this field. But we cannot wait for the end of the war to then acquire the best technology. Of course, missiles are needed, but is one missile more effective than 1000+ drones for the same money? Not all shots hit the targets.

There has been little faith in drones in Estonia today, although the war in Ukraine suggests otherwise. Rapid development work continues during the war, but we also need to make decisions today. Pictured: The drone Black Widow 2. Photo: Ukrainian TV

Broad-based national defense seems to be slipping into oblivion again, because the minister of the interior is not coming out with proposals for civil defense. It is not developing at the same pace, and that is a problem. We need to move forward quickly with civil defense even when there is no direct military threat, because we buy ammunition even when there is no direct threat.

The foreign minister should also appear before the government to determine how we can achieve a situation where we will be present at the table next time in London or at some other similar meeting. There is no point in reassuring ourselves that things were decided the way we want, because the world is too unpredictable. In order for the decisions to be suitable for Estonia also in two months, we need to be at the table today.

Defending Estonia is not just about the military. It is a whole, where the task of the defense forces is to fight battles. One can be sure that after Russia emerges from isolation, Moscow will begin planning more hybrid operations and increase intelligence activities. To counter this, attention must also be paid to the special services.

The challenge is very simple – if we invest enough in the military but not in broad-based national defense, then that is a problem. An example is Iraq, which invested huge sums in tanks and helicopters with US help, but terrorists armed with machine guns destabilized the entire country.

Broad-based national defense has been on the sidelines for some time, but it should be brought back to the center of the table, because then we will be stronger as a society and will be able to cope with crises.

The process of updating the Estonian security policy framework is underway. Previous versions have always referred to the alliance with the US. Let us hope that this will continue to be the case and that all our agreements will be upheld, but the US is nevertheless currently pressuring Ukraine to make peace in a way that will not bring a just peace and does not meet Estonia's interests. Putting together this version of the framework will be a major challenge for the government.

In fact, in a rather complicated security situation, the government has a lot of challenges. By now, the Social Democratic Party (SDE) has left the government, but it did not seem that these decisions were solely the responsibility of the SDE. Broad-based national defense has been on the sidelines for some time, but it should be brought back to the center of the table, because then we will be stronger as a society and will be able to cope with crises.