ERKKI KOORT ⟩ Four scenarios for Europe's future

The US secretary of state has said that the US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia were meant to probe the other side's intentions. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry

• The United States underestimates Russia's negotiation skills.
• The idea that this is part of a bigger plan seems unlikely.
• Europe's strategic autonomy is inevitable.

US President Donald Trump has thrown the security policy chessboard into disarray, and Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin is eager to return to the stage. What scenarios lie ahead? Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, explores the possibilities.

The «stable genius's» statements in recent weeks and days have caused significant turbulence. Broadly speaking, experts commenting on the situation fall into two groups -- those who see it as an apocalyptic scenario or a new Yalta agreement, and those who act as if nothing has happened, arguing that Trump's day-to-day political remarks should not be taken too seriously.

In the past few weeks, conditions have indeed been created for the emergence of a new world order, but at this point, it is impossible to say what exactly it will look like.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between. There are alliances and treaties that will not change overnight, but their implementation can shift dramatically in a short time. Dismissing the issue is not the right approach, and discussing different future scenarios is necessary to be better prepared for the possible outcomes.

Here are some potential developments that would undoubtedly shape Estonia's security.

Nothing changes

Despite Donald Trump's statements and negotiations with Russia, no major security policy shifts occur. Trump has made bold claims before, but his subsequent actions have not always aligned with his words.

A US ATACMS missile, which was finally delivered to Ukraine after a long wait. Photo: John Hamilton

This scenario ensures the continued presence of US forces in Europe and the Baltics, as well as ongoing military aid to Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already stated that the Riyadh negotiations were meant to test the Kremlin«s willingness for an actual agreement. Rubio claimed that the Trump administration has no plans to make any secret deals with Moscow behind Ukraine's or Europe»s back.

To some extent, this isolationist policy has already begun, as the act of bringing Moscow officially to the negotiating table and the ongoing clash with Ukraine have pushed the United States further away from others.

At the same time, Trump's public criticism of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has been openly disparaging and filled with Moscow's talking points. For this scenario to come true, the United States and Ukraine would need to hold de-escalation talks soon, along with credible assurances to Europe that the United States will continue to honor its commitments.

It is all part of a bigger game

There is speculation, based on references to several US officials, that Trump's chaotic policies are part of a larger strategy. This view is also shared by some long-time members of the US government apparatus.

The Americans have called the Riyadh meeting the first test and stated that they are not rushing to ease or lift sanctions against Russia. According to Rubio, discussions included lifting restrictions on embassies, which had expelled diplomats over the course of the war. Test or not, Russia has already managed to broaden the agenda far beyond Ukraine.

Additionally, Reuters has reported that, alongside the Munich Security Conference, US and Russian delegations met in Switzerland. Whether this is speculation or fact will become clear in the near future. But it would be naive to think such consultations have not taken place. There have certainly been informal meetings and probes throughout the war.

This is an extremely dangerous scenario because both the US administration and government officials appear to underestimate Russia. It is especially risky due to the administration's lack of experience in global politics and dealings with Moscow.

Although Russia has fallen behind significantly in geopolitics and many of its tactical successes have turned into strategic failures, negotiations with them must not lead to complacency or the assumption that they have not calculated every possibility.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 #RussiaUS talks in Riyadh commence pic.twitter.com/CybA6A3IPC

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) February 18, 2025

US retreat and self-isolation

In the long term, this scenario is unlikely, but in the short term, it has already damaged both European security and the United States itself. Trump's demands on allies and his direct accusation that Ukraine triggered the aggression are irreversible. The United States' credibility has suffered—not just among its allies, but even more critically, among its adversaries. Trump's statements and actions are being closely watched not only in European capitals but also in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and beyond.

President Donald Trump has directly attacked President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine, blaming Kyiv for causing the war. This has been noticed by both allies and adversaries. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson

While troop withdrawals would not happen immediately, under this scenario, they would occur on a significant scale. US aid to Ukraine would cease entirely, and Europe would have to fill the gap. Ukraine would struggle, as restrictions on arms sales to Kyiv would likely follow. This is especially probable if the White House realizes that its desire to strike a deal with Moscow is ineffective, prompting it to tighten arms exports as a means of asserting control.

Underestimating Russia is especially risky due to the administration's lack of experience in global politics and dealings with Moscow.

To some extent, this isolationist policy has already begun. By officially bringing Moscow to the table and clashing with Ukraine, the United States has distanced itself from its allies. However, Washington seems aware of this problem, as the administration has made conciliatory statements on multiple levels.

Europe's strategic awakening

This will not happen overnight or without shocks. In fact, three major shocks have already pushed Europe toward strategic awakening. Firstly, Europe was alarmed when the United States criticized it and invited Russia back into diplomatic circles. Secondly, Russia was startled to discover that Europe was not simply following Washington's lead—apparently, years of inaction by Europe had created that expectation. Thirdly, the United States was taken aback when Europe did not immediately comply with its demands. Instead of going along with the plan, European leaders began internal discussions, engaging other NATO allies while sidelining some Russia-friendly EU states.

Europe choosing which NATO countries to engage with—and which to exclude—seems to annoy Washington the most. The outcome of this scenario could be a NATO without the United States, but with Ukraine. While NATO's military capability would be significantly weaker without the United States, Ukraine's accession and increased European defense investments could ensure the continent's security.

The current situation has shaken Europe, but it remains to be seen whether it has also awakened it. On February 17, a selected group of European leaders gathered in Paris under the leadership of French President Emmanuel Macron, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also in attendance Photo: Gonzalo Fuentes

 A strong strategic autonomy would put the United States in a world where it no longer has anyone to negotiate about. European autonomy would be a positive development, but US disengagement from Europe would not be. It is worth noting that Estonia itself has previously opposed strengthening the EU's defense capabilities, relying instead on NATO unity.

What kind of future awaits us?

It is a fact that the United States has distanced itself from its traditional allies, providing Russia with an opportunity to break out of isolation. High-level negotiations are ongoing, and for Russia, they likely started from the same position as their ultimatums in late 2021, which included demands for NATO to retreat to its 1997 borders.

Although conditions have been set for the emergence of a new world order, it is impossible to predict what shape it will take. No scenario will unfold in its pure form; instead, the future will be a combination of various factors, including some that we cannot yet foresee.

One thing is clear: the United States is undoubtedly underestimating Russia's negotiation skills and slightly taken aback by its allies' reactions. If the United States expects its criticism of Ukraine to lull Russia into complacency, that would be a grave miscalculation.

At this point, we have no way of knowing the final outcome. The United States could find itself in a world where it no longer has anyone to negotiate about, or the situation could lead to a significant weakening of Russia's influence. One thing is clear—Russia will escalate its intelligence operations and hybrid warfare across Europe to advance its interests. This is underscored by a warning from Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), which claims that Ukraine is planning attacks on Russian embassies in Europe.

After the negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated that Ukraine could join the EU after a peace agreement, but not NATO. This is actually a positive sign, as it indicates that Moscow still regards NATO with caution. And Estonia is a member of NATO.