EDITORIAL ⟩ The masks have fallen

US Vice President JD Vance (R) speaks during a meeting between US President Donald Trump (C) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 28 February 2025. Photo: CNP/AdMedia/SIPA

• Ukraine's exit from the war with security guarantees is of utmost importance to Estonia.
• Trump does not understand the nature of this war: it is a fight for survival for Ukrainians.
• The EU must abandon budgetary rules and begin to rapidly arm itself.

Friday's conflict in the White House between Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has cleared the air like a thunderstorm after a heatwave. Until that moment, it was not entirely clear what to expect from Trump and what his policy on Ukraine would be.

Considering Estonia's national interests, Ukraine's exit from the war with security guarantees is of utmost importance to us, as is the preservation of an international order that precludes the forcible alteration of national borders, as was done in the 19th century and still in the first half of the 20th century. We, like other small European countries, do not want to be pawns in the division of spheres of influence between the great powers.

Considering Estonia's location, debates about whether Trump is better than Biden or whether his fight against illegal immigration or culture warriors is a good thing are completely secondary at the moment. Donald Trump has essentially accepted that changing borders by force is conceivable in the world (according to him, Ukraine must make concessions too) and that an aggressor should be appeased (Zelenskyy supposedly hates Putin too much to negotiate with him).

True, when answering journalists' questions at the meeting, Trump replied to a Polish journalist's question about whether US support for Poland would also extend to the Baltic states: «The Baltic states... It's a tough neighborhood too. But we're committed. We're going to be very committed. And we're committed to NATO.»

Unfortunately, by demanding concessions for peace from Zelenskyy, Donald Trump has demonstrated his weakness as a geopolitical actor. We can state this based on Estonia's historical experience since the Great Northern War. We know Russia well, for whom borders are where its troops are, and for whom negotiations and peace agreements are only necessary to buy time in a difficult situation.

«I will sign this peace treaty,» Adolf Joffe, the representative of Soviet Russia, is said to have said at the Tartu peace negotiations in 1920, «but I do not believe that the Republic of Estonia could last even ten years.»

Indeed, on December 1, 1924, a coup attempt took place in Tallinn, instigated by Russia, which was suppressed unexpectedly quickly, to Moscow's surprise. The intelligence was wrong. People supported their state. What followed in 1939 and 1940 is, of course, a separate story, but it proves once again that Russia is dangerous as long as its imperial mindset persists – which, unfortunately, is very much alive today.

In Postimees' view, it remains in Estonia's interest for a peace to be agreed in Ukraine that includes collective security guarantees for Ukraine.

We can see that Trump wants peace at any cost – which undoubtedly suits Putin well, as he desperately needs a temporary respite. One of Trump's motives is likely to send strong messages to the domestic audience: everything Biden did was bad, the war would not have broken out under Trump's presidency, and now he can quickly bring peace. However, Zelenskyy's person prevents him from fulfilling this promise, which is infuriating.

Unfortunately, the passionate press conference in the Oval Office also showed that Trump does not understand the nature of this war for Ukrainians: it is a fight for survival for a nation threatened by genocide.

It is equally regrettable that hostility towards Ukraine has started to spread more and more also in Estonia. Martin Helme wrote on Facebook on Saturday: «...the insolent Slav went to Trump to brag and demand things, he got what he wanted.» On social media, several people who consider themselves conservatives are fielding a plethora of arguments that Ukraine is somehow to blame for what happened, that the war started because Ukraine wanted to join NATO, and that Ukraine will collapse immediately if the peace agreement offered by Trump is not accepted right away.

Let's put things in perspective. While the aggressor state, Russia, assumed that the war would be over in three days, it had lasted for 1,102 days as of March 1. Thus, only 316 days less than the Great Patriotic War, Russia's heroic self-myth. While the Soviet Union was also to blame for the outbreak of that war, Ukraine is not to blame for anything now. When it comes to Ukraine, this war is as moral as any war can be. Standing up to the attacker was necessary, inevitable, and, as we now see, possible. What would have been the alternative? Silent surrender, like Estonia in 1939, which would have been followed by looting, deportations, and killings. In short, the systematic Russification of the Ukrainian people?

Now, the masks have fallen. It is not Zelenskyy's stubbornness that threatens us with World War III, but Donald Trump's appeasement policy. Let us remember how Neville Chamberlain's appeasement policy in 1938, when Czechoslovakia was pressured into a «sensible peace», led to World War II.

In Postimees' view, it remains in Estonia's interest for a peace to be agreed in Ukraine that includes collective security guarantees for Ukraine. Fortunately, statements of support for Ukraine from all other democratic countries came in on Friday evening and Saturday morning. If the US does not wish to provide security guarantees, European countries must do so.

The moment has now arrived for the European Union to abandon budgetary rules and begin to rapidly arm itself – while continuing to support Ukraine. The financial gap left by the US can be filled. Whether the same applies to (intelligence) technology is a more complex question, but in that case, the necessary actions should be started immediately. If Europe can pull together, we have every chance to emerge successfully from this difficult situation. Ukraine is not alone. Unlike in 1939, Estonia is not alone either. The US and Donald Trump, however, are being left alone with their policy of appeasement. Hopefully he will nevertheless be able to see through Putin, or domestic political processes, which may still take a year or two, will force him to change his mind.