TAAVI MADIBERK ⟩ Estonia has always been a nation of winners—and we must believe it

A ceremony for the raising of the national flag took place early on Estonia's Independence Day at the Governor's Garden in Toompea, Tallinn. Photo: Madis Veltman

• Our success has been built on intellect and hard work, not on natural resources.
• The time for political bickering is over—Estonia needs action now.
• The reality is that economic development is secondary to freedom.

Do you also believe that nothing depends on Estonia, that we are a nation caught in the winds of history, left to rely only on good fortune, hoping that the storm will pass so that our freedom endures? That is not true. Estonia has always been, and will remain, a nation of winners. And our future depends first and foremost on us, Taavi Madiberk, CEO of Skeleton Technologies, writes.

We have much to lose—we are one of the most successful small nations in the world, having undergone an extraordinary success story over the past 30 years. In 1992, the average salary in Estonia was 35 euros, while in China, which was impoverished at the time, it was 42 euros. Today, our average salary is 2,000 euros, and our wage growth has far outpaced that of China, which has been considered the economic miracle of the century.

Estonia has produced some of Europe's most successful companies. And not just startups or tech firms, but enterprises of substantial scale. It is important that our success has been built on intellect and hard work, not on natural resources that fell into our lap.

Estonians have made their mark at the very top, from Arvo Pärt to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Estonians are racing ahead—Ott Tänak is a world champion, we have had an Estonian in IndyCar, our supercapacitors have powered IndyCar victories, and now an Estonian is in Formula 1.

We have built a country that stands in stark contrast to the Russian world that is pressing in on us—a world where human life is worth nothing, and where people are only allowed to think and act as the head of state dictates. Despite all the shortcomings and growing pains of our country, we remain free people in our own free land. Estonia is still one of the freest countries in the world.

We genuinely have a lot to lose.

I was recently in California, where someone asked me: «What does it mean to be Estonian?» Are we like the Finns, who won the Winter War and brought Nokia to the world? Are we like Israel, a country in the desert, without accessible fresh water, yet one that has overcome overwhelming odds, become a nuclear power, and now has some of the world's most successful businesses?

At first, I wanted to say that Estonia is a small country with pristine nature and a difficult history—that we have suffered greatly. But then my reasoning took over, and I spoke instead about our clean environment and technology companies. Yet that moment made me think...

Our historical narrative is largely one of suffering—deportations, war hardships, preceded by 700 years of serfdom, with a brief period of independence, only to be crushed again by Russia, until we finally regained our freedom through song when the Soviet empire collapsed.

When we are attacked and refuse to be victims, we have often found solace in nature—retreating into the forests or bogs, merging with the wilderness, perhaps even befriending a moose bull, drawing strength from our connection to the land.

In this narrative, we are victims who hide away, occasionally resurfacing when the enemy weakens.

Estonia at a crossroads: do we believe in victory?

Now, we are at a new crossroads—our success story is stalling, and our confidence is fading. The issue is not just defense spending, but whether our politicians even believe we can stand against Russia. Many likely do not. Like the Sovietologists of the late 1980s, who thought the Soviet Union was eternal, our leaders are coldly analyzing numbers and concluding that allocating two, five, or even ten percent of GDP to defense would not change the outcome.

What is even worse—some politicians do not grasp the seriousness of the situation, while others remain silent, fearing panic or the departure of foreign investors.

If the prevailing mindset is that Estonia's actions do not determine the final outcome, and that our fate depends solely on great powers, then the motivation to act quickly disappears. A comfortable self-deception sets in: we convince ourselves that we have already «done our part» and shift the focus to others—like demanding that Portugal invest more in defense, as if that would somehow improve our security or strengthen our national defense.

The people have more faith in victory than many politicians, because they have nowhere else to go.

In this situation, we lack a real understanding that defense spending must happen immediately, not be dragged out over years with bureaucratic debates. Instead, we waste time on institutional and domestic political rivalries, where everyone tries to shift responsibility or secure their own position.

This mentality is dangerous because it reflects a subconscious desire to escape reality. Instead of seriously strengthening our defense, we comfort ourselves with the idea that NATO's collective deterrence and our geographically distant allies, such as those on the Iberian Peninsula, will keep threats beyond Narva. However, history has shown that small nations that solely relied on allies, instead of their own preparedness, have often been sorely mistaken.

The public sees this far more clearly. The people have more faith in victory than many politicians, because they have nowhere else to go. The time for political bickering is over—Estonia needs action now. The public mandate for this already exists.

A new narrative: Estonia, the nation of winners

As a practitioner, I can say that in business, a company's culture is ultimately what determines its success. I do not believe that a victim mentality, the idea that «nothing depends on us,» can build global companies, restore economic growth, or stand up to an aggressive eastern neighbor.

I propose a new narrative for our history and future—Estonia is a nation of winners.

The existing narrative of suffering must be replaced with a confident, winner's mentality. This is not difficult, because in reality, we have moved from victory to victory throughout history, emerging triumphant even from the most unlikely situations.

But first, we must change our mindset. We are not victims, but a nation that chooses its own destiny and future. Estonia is a nation of winners.

War of Independence – the victory of the century in Europe

For example, when it comes to the War of Independence, it should be unmistakable that we are the winners. Yet, in our interpretation of the War of Independence, for instance in the film «Names in Marble», the story is more of a lament that war is horrible and has devastating consequences for many.

But the victory in the War of Independence was not merely a lucky coincidence, nor was it just a side effect of great powers' conflicts—it was a strategic triumph, proving the true ability and self-confidence of Estonians. Throughout the 20th century, there is no other example of a nation with one million inhabitants managing to defeat an enemy with hundreds of millions of inhabitants and even seize part of its territory. This was more impressive than all the «Rocky» movies combined—we pushed back Russia with its 130 million people, took control of northwestern Russia, and only refrained from capturing St. Petersburg due to alliances. At the same time, we crushed the remnants of the German Empire on the southern front—the same Baltic Germans who had oppressed us for centuries.

Those who argue that we won solely due to luck and internal power struggles among the great nations sound like someone trying to explain Estonia's basketball victory over Lithuania by pointing out that Domantas Sabonis or his father Arvydas were absent from the game.

The Treaty of Tartu was not a compromise born of war fatigue, either, but a formal recognition of our victory—we expanded our territory and secured international recognition for our independence.

Although in 1919, the enemy reached the outskirts of Tallinn, and morale was low, there were still enough people who refused to give up and believed in victory. We won because there were enough Estonians who believed in victory, even when many considered independence an impossible dream. They were winners.

When we celebrate Victory Day on Midsummer's Eve, let it be a day of recognition for those who have believed in Estonia's victory and have secured victories for Estonia. And may the team that believes in defeat fall into the bonfire.

Our choice is not between the economy and national defense—it is between winning and losing

If the Estonian people were asked to choose, in 1930s terms, between a slightly slower economic growth and a slightly higher debt burden or decades of occupation, deportations, and mass executions, which would we choose?

It may sound dramatic, but the reality is that economic development is secondary to freedom. Even for a cynic who does not care about Estonia's fate, it should be clear that the best way to protect both domestic and foreign investments is to strengthen national defense.

Even for a cynic who does not care about Estonia's fate, it should be clear that the best way to protect both domestic and foreign investments is to strengthen national defense.

Currently, the interest rate on Estonia's ten-year government bond is about half a percentage point higher than Finland's, even though Finland's border with Russia is longer and harder to defend. Considering the current security environment and the discussions at the Munich Security Conference, there is no reason to believe that this gap will shrink in the near future. But the issue is not just a matter of percentage points—it raises doubts about whether anyone will even want to invest in us under difficult security conditions.

Israel is a positive example in this regard. Despite the October 7 attacks, Intel announced a 25 billion dollar investment in Israel. Even though their security situation is more complicated than Estonia's, the country remains attractive because Israel has a credible defense capability and a strong technology sector.

The first step: a real and well-funded defense plan

Our first task is to restore our national defense capability, starting with a clear plan that every citizen can understand—how we can repel the enemy and win. The Estonian defense forces are capable, but at the political level, we must ensure that the implementation of our plans does not stall. We must learn from 1939—then, we did too little, too late. And we must remember that while NATO is a strong pillar of support, our freedom is first and foremost our own responsibility.

Security creates the foundation for economic growth—everything else comes after that. That is why national defense is the highest-return investment in Estonia's future, supporting both local businesses and foreign investment.

Defense industry exports should reach five percent of GDP by 2035

We often talk about defense spending targets, but winners do not just focus on costs, they also focus on revenues. I propose that Estonia set a goal: by 2035, our defense industry exports should reach five percent of GDP, which would amount to approximately two billion euros per year.

The goal is not just economic growth and higher wages, but to give Estonia a strategic advantage—to develop technologies and weaponry that other nations cannot, making us indispensable. Among small countries, only Israel has achieved a comparable level, with defense industry revenue making up 2.7 percent of its GDP.

You may ask, is it really possible for us to have the largest defense industry per capita in the world? Is that goal any less realistic than winning the War of Independence or having the highest number of unicorn startups per capita in the world? A nation of winners has only one answer: we act, we win, and we do it on a global scale.

Estonia – Europe’s Rocky Balboa

Estonia's historic victories—the War of Independence, regaining our independence, and rapid economic and digital development—were not accidents or gifts from external forces. They were achieved by Estonians who believed in victory, took risks, and acted fearlessly. We have never been passive victims of fate; instead, we have overcome obstacles that seemed insurmountable. This winner's mentality is at the core of our history—it is what drives us forward and sets us apart from nations that merely exist without determining their own future.

If we want to secure our freedom, we must recognize that freedom is never guaranteed: it must be earned every day through defense, economy, education, and self-assertion. Prosperity cannot be taken for granted, either, and we must not rest on our laurels or view the past solely through the lens of suffering. Instead, we must look to the future, make bold decisions, and keep Estonia a competitive and innovative small nation that is unafraid of ambitious goals.

We have never been passive victims of fate; instead, we have overcome obstacles that seemed insurmountable.

Estonia's success does not rest on victimhood, but on confidence, courage, and work. We must restore the same national mentality that secured victory in the War of Independence, helped us break free from Soviet occupation, and made us a leader in the digital sphere. Our belief must be that Estonia is a nation of winners—because winning is better than losing.

Just like Rocky Balboa, who faced the seemingly unbeatable Ivan Drago, we too must train, prepare, and above all, believe in our own victory, even with limited resources. In the War of Independence, we already proved once that we can take down our opponent. Now, we are once again facing our own «Ivan Drago», and just like Rocky, who ultimately defeated Drago, Estonia will also prove itself as a winner—because we invest, we prepare, we believe, and most importantly, we win.

Happy Independence Day!