ERKKI KOORT ⟩ How US-Russia relations are shaping European security

Alleged US interference in elections and Nazi past have emerged as topics in the German polls. Meanwhile, Scholz himself has repeatedly called Putin, whose country continues to commit war crimes. Pictured: US Vice President J.D. Vance meets German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Photo: LEAH MILLIS Photo: LEAH MILLIS

• Excluding Europe is dangerous.
• The leaders of France and Germany have not been up to the leadership role.
• Europe must act very quickly.

Statements by the US president and his administration have made Europe uneasy. Erkki Koort, a security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes about the European security situation.

The global security order has changed significantly, and America has changed. More precisely, the global security order has changed for the very reason that America has changed. While Trump acted calmly during the previous presidential term, now it can be seen that he has learned – action must be taken immediately, and this is supported by strong statements.

His administration is also different. Likewise, the situation in which the new term began is different. Trump has declared the need to end the war, and that is true. However, the question remains at what price and under what conditions. The US has demanded that Europe take greater responsibility for its own security and has stated that ensuring peace in Ukraine will also fall on Europe's shoulders. However, Keith Kellogg, the president's special envoy on ending the war in Ukraine, said that Europe was not welcome at the negotiating table.

The EU has long avoided responsibility

The US demand may seem surprising, but it is at the same time logical. From the US perspective, Europe is a wealthy enough region to manage its own affairs. Europe can afford to pay for its defense, but must also be able to take responsibility in its immediate neighborhood.

The EU and the UK must make rapid changes in rhetoric, real behavior, and investments.

However, what is the reality? In the three years of war, Europe has failed to get its war industry off the ground. Even allocating two percent to defense is beyond the means for several countries, who ridiculously justify it by citing overly rapid GDP growth. Meanwhile, there are those among European nations and NATO allies who directly flirt with Putin and Russia. It is completely absurd to think that Hungary and Slovakia could somehow remain neutral in the event of a conflict. Such opinions also occasionally come up in Estonia. No, it is not possible to stay out, and if Budapest and Bratislava wish to stay out of collective action, this must be taken into account in planning now.

Europe is, of course, facing a very big challenge, which is to increase its military capabilities. The US taking a back seat will require a greater role, but also a mental change.

Europe is lacking a leader to rally behind, yet such leadership is urgently needed. All the conditions were in place for French President Emmanuel Macron to take on this role, but he has not emerged as one. Macron's bold statements have often, unfortunately, turned out to be empty rhetoric. For a long time, France was the main champion of the idea of European strategic autonomy. Macron's statement last year about the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine gave Moscow a real scare, but it ultimately amounted to nothing, and France has not significantly increased its military aid either. At the same time, Paris has largely withdrawn from its previous areas of operation in Africa under pressure from Russia and its shadow army, Wagner. As a result, France is currently neither autonomous nor strategic.

Now, Macron has once again taken the initiative by calling a summit in Paris with selected countries. However, given his previous initiatives and their outcomes, unfortunately, one can expect this one to fade soon as well.

The rumble of German elections

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, too, has not emerged as a European leader. Next week's elections, which will apparently leave him out of power, have provoked strange reactions. As we know, Scholz had a big problem with statements by businessman Elon Musk that supported the Alternative for Germany (AfD). US Vice President J.D. Vance also met with the co-leader of the AfD.

Russia continues to commit these crimes in Ukraine, and Putin is a direct heir of the NKVD and the KGB, as well as the FSB, which goes on committing crimes against humanity to this day.

Both of these public endorsements of the AfD irritated Scholz so much that he accused the United States of interfering in German democracy. AfD members have been downplaying Nazism, and the chancellor has mentioned that Germany can never again support fascism, racism or a war of aggression.

These statements illustrate the current situation quite accurately. Scholz's statements about the AfD have at times been panic-stricken, but nothing has stopped him in the past from speaking with a regime that has committed similar crimes. Russia is the legal successor to the USSR, and that country committed war crimes and crimes against humanity on a massive scale before, during and after World War II. Russia continues to commit these crimes in Ukraine, and Putin is a direct heir of the NKVD and the KGB, as well as the FSB, which goes on committing crimes against humanity to this day. This does not seem to bother the chancellor as much. The arming of Germany proclaimed by Scholz has proved to be hollow and, judging by the latest reports, the Bundeswehr's combat capability has been decreasing further.

Choices?

Europe is now facing very tough choices. It doesn't look like the EU is expected to be at the US-Russia negotiating table. When the Russian president's advisor and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev spoke of this demand, it did not seem credible. Moscow wanted to exclude Europe because it seemed that someone somewhere indeed wanted to negotiate. The exclusion bore fruit, and Europe is not expected at the table. Of course, this may change, but Europe needs to assert itself.

Macron's bold statements have often, unfortunately, turned out to be empty rhetoric.

We have also lulled ourselves with talk about the Ramstein Group or the EU having an economy many times larger than Russia's. This is a fiction because we are not waging a war, but Russia is. The EU's GDP may be dozens of times larger, but that money is not just sitting idle. As things stand, governments are spending more than they earn – us included. These funds cannot be redirected without major reforms. At the same time, Russia is waging a war and can even strip its treasury down to the studs if necessary.

Europe must quickly pull itself together and show unity. Countries have no choice and the US cannot be relied on unconditionally. The EU and the UK must make rapid changes in rhetoric, real behavior, and investments. Otherwise, Europe will fade as a center of power and, soon, as an economic center. The time for idleness is over.