EERIK-NIILES KROSS ⟩ What Europe will do now depends largely on the fear of death

Photo: Madis Veltman

• Alarm clocks have been ringing for Europe since at least 2008.
• Europe can either pull itself together and establish its own rules of the game, or it cannot.
• The Trump-Putin teams' meeting in Saudi Arabia can't be seen by Europe as a peace negotiation.

This year's Munich Security Conference may mark the beginning of a very different era, MP Eerik-Niiles Kross (Reform Party) writes.

It may prove to be the moment when the marginalization of the European Union as a minor geopolitical force is conclusively revealed. It may prove to be the weekend when Europe pulled itself together and decided to determine its own destiny. It may prove to be a strange moment of misunderstanding in relations between Europe and the United States, but it may also mark the beginning of a completely new transatlantic relationship.​

The alarm clock has been so overused as a cliché that trying to call Trump's decision not to invite the European Union or even Europe's most important countries (even just the victors of World War II) to negotiations with Putin's Russia yet another wake-up call would be comical. Alarm clocks have been ringing since at least 2008, and Europe – or most of it – has so far not deemed it necessary to get out of bed. Now it has become clear that one's so late for class that they are not even expected anymore.

What Europe will do now depends largely on the fear of death – more precisely, on the degree to which it has gotten home to Western Europe. Things seem clear for Eastern and Northern Europe. The British, who should be involved in future discussions at all costs, seem to understand the situation as well.

Hopefully, the «summit» convened by Macron in Paris, which is actually a Weimar plus Poland summit, will not be dominated by voices from Munich saying that «leaving Europe aside is unacceptable,» or whining seeking to prove Europe's great freedom of speech. That is not really the point.

The time for statements is over. Europe can either pull itself together and establish its own rules of the game, or it cannot.

One thing is clear – if Europe wants to have a say in the negotiations or in the further course of the war, it must take this position itself, not beg for it from others.

First of all, the meeting between the Trump and Putin teams in Saudi Arabia cannot be considered by Europe as a peace negotiation, since peace negotiations are something that can be held by the parties involved in the war. The US and Russia can negotiate on their own relations, but not on Ukraine-Russia or Europe-Russia relations.

Of course, Europe, being «very concerned,» can wait to see what agreement Trump brings from Moscow «for Europe» and then pay for it and guarantee it with its own forces, as Washington seems to expect. However, hopefully, things will not turn out so badly.

Ursula von der Leyen announced in Munich her intention to exempt EU member states' defense investments from budget deficit restrictions. This is the first essential step. Of course, actual investments must follow.

We do not know what is currently going on in the minds of the leaders of Germany and France. In Germany's case, it is probably more relevant to consider Merz, and his messages have been rather promising. Macron has launched yet another French initiative, but whether it will be accompanied by real action and genuine European involvement this time remains uncertain.

What exactly Europe should do is a matter of debate. Hopefully, these disputes will not be endless. One thing is clear – if Europe wants to have a say in the negotiations or in the further course of the war, it must take this position itself, not beg for it from others.

Ten steps Europe could start with

1. A European Union nuclear weapons program. It could be led by France as a nuclear power. Ukraine should definitely be included, as its nuclear weapons were taken away in 1994 with the lie that its security would be ensured.
2. Defense spending to three percent in all member states, through a European directive.
3. Mandatory conscript service in all EU states.
4. Rapid, centralized launch of the defense industry.
5. Introduction of strict European standards for weapon systems and ammunition.
6. Ultra-rapid development of Europe's «eyes and ears»: satellite technology, fire control, long-range fire, intelligence and reconnaissance systems.
7. Development of Europe's own missile shield – something the Americans once started and then didn't do.
8. Fast-track admission of Ukraine to the European Union as soon as possible.
9. Setting up a delegation for Europe-Ukraine negotiations, if Ukraine still wants there to be one.
10. Appointing a representative of the European Union to negotiate with Trump, and if necessary, with Putin and whoever.