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Russian propagandists are aiming to reignite fears of a «nuclear winter» among Americans in 2025, an effort based on a scientific concept widely discussed in the 1980s, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service says in its annual report published on Wednesday.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, the concept suggested that the use of nuclear weapons would trigger an artificial cooling of Earth’s climate, with a drastic drop in temperatures leading to widespread famine and other catastrophic consequences. While once a popular scientific theory, the nuclear winter hypothesis was later heavily criticized for being based on flawed data, drawing arbitrary conclusions and suffering from ambiguity.
It has since been revealed that the debate was sparked by a disinformation campaign orchestrated by the Soviet KGB to deter the US from deploying Pershing II missiles in Europe, the report says.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, 40 years on, Kremlin propagandists are now seeking to revive the nuclear winter theory. Their overarching goal remains the same: to instill fear in Western, particularly American, public opinion and to discourage the provision of military aid to Ukraine.
To achieve this, the Kremlin has even mobilized some of its oldest and most familiar figures. For example, one of the leading proponents of this revival is well-known propagandist Vladimir Pozner, who will soon celebrate his 91st birthday. Pozner has expressed his willingness to reintroduce 1980s-style televised dialogues with the US, framing discussions on various issues through the lens of a nuclear winter threat to sway American public opinion.
The Kremlin plans to launch a broader campaign that combines television with modern methods and platforms, such as YouTube, podcasts and carefully selected spokespersons with authoritative and «palatable» viewpoints, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Their ideal strategy would be to recruit influential American science communicators to champion the nuclear winter theory. Similarly, in the 1980s, prominent Western scientists were enlisted to disseminate the idea, likely unaware of its KGB origins. According to our information, the Kremlin intended to wait for the outcome of the US presidential elections before fully (re)launching this campaign," the report says.
As Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is entering its fourth year, relations between Estonia and Russia remain predictably at a low, with no signs of improvement in the near future, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service says.
Russia views Estonia as a hostile state, primarily because of Estonia's unwavering support for democratic Ukraine and its pro-Western integration efforts. This hostility includes potential deterrent measures against Estonia, the report says.
Although Russia's approach to the Baltic states has not fundamentally shifted, its perception of threats in the region has grown. Following the onset of war and Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, Russia's strategic position in the Baltic Sea has weakened and long-term risks have heightened.
For Moscow, potential risks such as the blocking of Kaliningrad's access routes and the closure of the Gulf of Finland to maritime traffic require preventive actions and the development of possible countermeasures. Avoiding any restrictions on maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea is economically vital for Russia, as approximately 60 percent of its oil exports rely on Baltic ports, the report says.
According to the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia's toolkit for political countermeasures against Estonia has not fundamentally changed since before February 2022. It continues to influence and exploit the Russian-speaking population to serve its interests and attempts to deepen societal divisions. Tools in Russia's arsenal against the Baltic states include migration weaponization, but also intimidation and sabotage. However, effective means of exerting economic pressure on Estonia through trade relations have largely been exhausted.
Russia's influence operations in the Baltic states still rely heavily on the local branches of the Russian Orthodox Church, which act under the directives of Russia's leadership and special services.
To pressure the Baltic states, Russia continues to spread historical distortions and international smear campaigns about the persecution of Orthodox
Christians. Under the guise of defending Orthodoxy and traditional values, it also seeks to consolidate its network of influence agents, who actively promote disinformation narratives.
According to Kaupo Rosin, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, the risk of a military attack against Estonia this year is very low, but in order for this risk to remain low, Estonia must significantly improve its defense capabilities together with its allies.
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Rosin emphasized at the presentation of the annual report of the Foreign Intelligence Service on Wednesday that, in order to ensure the future of Ukraine and the security of the free world, the terms of ending the war must not be dictated by Russia.
«The war in Ukraine must end in a clear defeat for Russia,» the foreign intelligence chief said.
According to him, there is no reason to believe that the leader of the Russian regime, Vladimir Putin, in his maximalist goals, has abandoned previous demands to return NATO's military deployment to the 1997 line, and it is all the more important that Russia leaves Ukraine with a painful lesson.
The Foreign Intelligence Service considers it likely that the aggressor attempting to undermine support for Ukraine may continue with a sabotage campaign mediated by special services in 2025, and various objects will be set on fire, vandalized and destroyed across Europe. Estonia has a warning experience in this regard, when criminals damaged the car of Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets and vandalized monuments on the orders of Russian military intelligence.
«The Kremlin does not understand that by committing vandalism that potentially endangers human lives, it only reinforces its reputation as an aggressor and brings Western countries together, not the other way around,» Rosin said.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in its war of aggression against Ukraine, although the Kremlin's nuclear weapons rhetoric has been very forceful.
«We estimate that Russia will very likely not use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine, but seeing how the fear factor has held the West back so far, Russia is exploiting it to the maximum. The war in Ukraine would have ended long ago if the West had seen through Russia's bluff,» Rosin added.
In Russia, development in many areas has almost come to a standstill due to the burden of war, people's quality of life is declining, and internal tensions are growing. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, there does not appear to be a threat to the current regime, but a characteristic of totalitarian systems is that they appear stronger than they actually are. The recent flight of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from the country after the collapse of the reign of terror within a few days shocked Putin's inner circle.
The Foreign Intelligence Service sees that sanctions have significantly weakened the Russian economy. The determination of Western countries to continue with sanctions directly harms the speed, sustainability and development of Russia's war chariot. This inhibits Russia's ability to continue fighting in Ukraine and prepare for a possible conflict with NATO.
According to Rosin, sanctions are actually having an impact on Russia, although the Kremlin regime is trying to give the opposite impression. If talks were to begin between the United States and Russia to end the war in Ukraine, one of the first things Russia would certainly bring up is the lifting of sanctions.
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