ERKKI KOORT ⟩ The largest Ukrainian air strike on Russia so far – this is the only way

HIMARS. The photo is illustrative. Photo: Staff Sgt. Oscar Gollaz

• Ukraine carried out its largest air strike on Russian territory to date.
• On the territory of Russia there are no places that Ukraine's attacks cannot reach.
• The situation is certainly causing internal problems and pressure on the Russian regime.

Ukraine launched an extensive attack on Russian military targets on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday, January 14 and 15. Over the course of the three-year war, Ukraine's capabilities and approach have evolved, and the only way forward now is to crush the aggressor in its own home. This is discussed by Erkki Koort, a security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.

The night between January 14 and 15 was very turbulent in Russia. The aggressor's territory was hit by the largest attacks seen in the past three years. According to data released by the Ukrainian General Staff, the strikes targeted military installations 200 to 1,100 kilometers deep in the Russian Federation's territory.

Ukraine has been attacking the aggressor in its own home for some time now, and this is the only logical course of action that provides an opportunity to influence Russia in a way where the destruction of logistics and production capacities creates conditions for pressuring it to the point where it starts having an impact on the frontlines.

Various facilities in the Bryansk, Saratov, and Tula regions, as well as in the Republic of Tatarstan, were reportedly hit. In Saratov and Engels, schools were closed, and airfields in nine cities were also shut down.

Additionally, blasts were reported in the Tula, Tambov, Rostov, Oryol, and Voronezh regions. Allegedly, attacks occurred in a total of 12 Russian regions. This is a very large-scale attack, which Ukraine previously did not have the capability to carry out. Many have already linked the large-scale attack by Ukraine to the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

Russia meanwhile accused Ukraine of using US and British weapons and promised that the attacks would not go unanswered. The response didn't take long indeed, and the Ukrainian General Staff announced that they had tracked 117 Russian airborne targets, including over 40 missiles. Of these, Ukraine managed to destroy 30.

So swift a response by Russia to Ukraine's attack indicates that Russia had been planning an attack, which was imminent, and Ukraine was able to preempt the attack staged by Moscow.

What can be inferred from this attack?

Ukraine's capacity to carry out such an attack actually shows two things. First, the Ukrainians have been able to develop the capacity to launch large-scale attacks. Second, the attack showed that there are no places on the territory of Russia, at least in the European part, that the attacks can not reach.

On January 8, a Ukrainian drone attack started a fire at an oil storage facility in Engels, where aviation fuel was kept. Firefighters managed to extinguish the large blaze with great effort by January 14. The same storage facility was now set on fire again, and Ukrainians even joked about it on social media, stating that they were doing their part to prevent unemployment among firefighters in Russia.

The farther Russian bombers take off, the longer the response time for the Ukrainian civilian population to take cover and for the air defenses to destroy targets.

The Engels airfield has come under Ukrainian attacks before, but now the Ukrainians seem determined to destroy the airfield completely or make it unusable. This, in turn, will push the air force further away and increase the strain on Russia's military infrastructure. Moscow, on its part, understands it very well that airfields at the same distance are all targets for further attacks.

Pushing the air force further away serves strategic purposes. The farther Russian bombers take off, the longer the response time for the Ukrainian civilian population to take cover and for the air defenses to destroy targets. Not all Russian airfields have the same capabilities, so switching airfields creates logistical problems and reduces efficiency.

Additionally, this situation demotivates pilots, who understand very well that the root cause is Russia's military capability, which in turn undermines the army's morale. Relocating pilots and their families creates an atmosphere of distrust.

What has changed over the years?

The change has actually been quite drastic. On December 5, 2022, explosive-laden drones attacked airfields in Russia located 600-700 kilometers from Ukraine. At that time, an anonymous US source reported shortly before the attack that the capabilities of HIMARS rocket systems had been limited in such a way that they could not be fired beyond a range of 80 kilometers.

Russia has long used the rhetoric that it shot down all the targets and that the fire was caused by falling debris.

Russia's rhetoric underwent a very significant change in the wake of that attack. If earlier negligence, usually smoking, was cited as the reason for something getting blown up, then on December 5, Ukraine was already explicitly blamed.

Now the Russian Defense Ministry announced that they had shot down six ATACMS missiles and six Storm Shadow cruise missiles over the Bryansk region. Russia has long used the rhetoric that it shot down all the targets and that the fire was caused by falling debris. However, neither the locals nor Russia's own war bloggers, who mostly avoid direct attacks because they do not want to go to prison for discrediting the army, believe this.

Attacking the aggressor in its own home is the only possible way. Although Ukraine has occupied a piece of Russia, it is not capable, at least for now, of doing the same on a larger scale. Controlling occupied territory poses challenges and ties down troops. Continuous strikes and the destruction of military infrastructure meanwhile paves the way for weakening the frontlines and disorients the Russian military command. We'll see if there's any official reaction in Russia towards the military leadership. This is, however, rather unlikely. But the situation is certainly causing internal problems and pressure on the Russian regime.

The Ukrainian army announced that it will continue to work systematically to destroy the facilities that supply the Russian occupation army with munitions, military equipment, fuel and lubricants until the Russian Federation's armed aggression against Ukraine is completely ended.