SECURITY TODAY ⟩ Security forecast 2025: How will the future of Russia and NATO affect Estonia?

On the live program «Julgeolek täna» («Security Today»), security experts Meelis Oidsalu and Erkki Koort discuss the current factors affecting Estonia's security. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

On the live program «Julgeolek täna» («Security Today»), security experts Meelis Oidsalu and Erkki Koort discuss the current factors affecting Estonia's security.

The topic of the program is the security forecast for 2025.

1. Without a doubt, Russia's hybrid attacks will continue in Europe, the world, and definitely in Estonia in 2025. The problems related to critical infrastructure protection in the Gulf of Finland will not subside. Physical guarding is not a very useful activity, as it cannot be done along the entire length of the infrastructure. While we definitely also need external connections in energy, the creation of sufficient capacities at home has been neglected for years. For some reason, we tend to decide in favor Narva when it comes to building managed generating capacities, which however may not be a very wise thing to do. In addition, in a month, desynchronization from the Russian power grid lies ahead, which also doesn't seem exactly like a risk-free undertaking in the middle of winter.

2. The development and future of NATO is certainly something than needs to be addressed. Finland and Sweden joined the alliance after long delays by Hungary and Turkey. Increasingly, the question also arises as to whether we can trust Hungary and Slovakia as NATO allies and whether secret information circulating within the alliance can be shared with them. A separate issue is what position the new US president will take on NATO. And there will be a NATO summit at the end of June.

3. The potential developments in Russia are definitely of great interest. Considering the extent to which the Russian army's hardware and equipment have been destroyed, some kind of change must occur there, or they need to additionally obtain significant amounts of weapons. There have also been constant contradictions among that country's elite beneath the surface, and Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region, North Korea's entry into the war, and the fall of the Syrian regime have deepened these cracks. The state of the Russian economy must definitely be monitored, as although several economic indicators have been good in the last year, they are not sustainable.

4. The war in Ukraine continues, although the new US president, Donald Trump, has promised to end it quickly. Meanwhile, a few days ago, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, and Russian war bloggers have suggested that Ukraine might attack elsewhere as well. This is possible, but in the current state of the war Ukraine must be able to bring about some change in such a case. The Biden administration, in its final months, has begun to support Ukraine more extensively, but some of this assistance will arrive much later than needed.

5. The commander of the Estonian defense forces has proposed committing 2026 to reforming conscription and better preparing instructors for the next cycles of training. While the reform has been supported by some, it has also been criticized, as approximately 2,800 reservists from the age group in question would remain untrained. Although the discussion about the future and effectiveness of conscription is welcome, it is difficult to imagine Israel, given its security situation, doing something of the kind. In addition to reforming conscription, alternative service, an area of great untapped potential, should be subjected to a full reform.

6. Russia's interference in countries that the former Soviet Union used to occupy, which Moscow considers a zone of its exclusive interests, will definitely continue. Parliamentary elections are coming up in Moldova, and there are already developments arising from energy shortages in Moldova and in Transnistria, a territory of the former occupied by Russia. Also in the spotlight are events in Georgia, which Russia is trying to control more than it managed to with Moldova. Moscow is also worried about its influence over Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Central Asia.

7. Events that have a significant impact on the security picture are also taking place in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. Israel's war on several fronts continues, and the collapse of the central power in Syria made it possible for it to destroy the arms depots of the previous government without fear of response, something that could no longer be prevented by either Russia or Iran. With Syria's new power, it is not yet entirely clear what it is about. Iran's influence in the region has significantly diminished and Turkey's influence is increasing.

8. It's also worth keeping an eye on Africa, as what is happening there is an important indicator of Russia's influence in the region and its ability to maintain its ambition. In those regions where Russia's influence is declining and regimes are forced to look around for new allies, China is likely to take Russia's place. Moscow's decisions on Africa will also be heavily influenced by what becomes of Russia's military bases in Syria.

9. US President Trump is back. After the Capitol attacks and his conviction in court, he was written off as a potential new president, but he proved otherwise and managed to win the election. His victory was not narrow but very convincing. During his election campaign, Trump promised many things that have raised anxiety levels in NATO allies. In part, he has also been seen as a man who wants to make a deal with Putin. However, the problem often lies not in an agreement being made, but in what is agreed upon.

10. Developments in Asia. The temperature is increasing both when it comes to China and North Korea. The latter has intervened on Russia's side in the war with Ukraine, which has made South Korea very anxious. South Korea meanwhile is struggling with a scandal, which the president managed to spark by declaring martial law at the end of last year. A conflict is threatening to erupt between China and Taiwan, which would inevitably shift attention away from Ukraine. India is striving for a greater role in global politics, benefiting significantly from the sanctions imposed on Russia, and has even managed to put pressure on Moscow regarding energy prices. In 2024, a new facet was revealed about India, when Canada accused its embassy of plotting and carrying out the murder of an opposition politician on Canadian soil. As far as we know, India has not engaged in such activities on democratic nations' territories – or at least has not been caught doing so.

11. In 2025, local government elections will take place in Estonia, which will definitely lead to an increase in influence activities. Russia has attempted to interfere with Estonia's elections in the past, and there is no reason to believe that it will not do so this time. A key topic is the debate over the voting rights of Russian citizens, which should be resolved before the elections, but no political agreement seems to be in sight. The issue of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate remains unresolved as well. While there is no indication of a quick and easy solution, there's no reason to hope that Moscow-aligned congregations here will turn their backs on the patriarch themselves.

12. At the end of the year, there were alarming reports that crime in Estonia has grown. It is important not to forget that in addition to broad-based national defense, it is not possible to abandon the fight against crime, because otherwise, we as a society are very susceptible to external influences. Russia has used both corruption and organized crime to advance its interests and will undoubtedly continue to do so in the future. One sign that gives us an idea of the degree of importance that our decision-makers attach to this field is that with one month left until the end of the outgoing chief prosecutor's term, not even the name of the new candidate has emerged. Traffic fatalities have also increased, and the new year brought more sad news.

In conclusion, while the likelihood of a direct military assault on Estonia in 2025 is low, it is crucial to remain prepared to repel any form of attacks. Russia will not be able to rebuild its large military force in the coming few years, but the risk of hybrid attacks remains constant. Undoubtedly, we will continue to hear news of agents of Russian special services being arrested and brought to justice in Estonia also in 2025. It is essential that, as a nation, we do not focus solely on narrow aspects of security but are also able to understand and influence broader processes.

Broadcast every other week, «Julgeolek täna» offers the best security briefs to the public on topics that are usually only analyzed behind closed doors. Our interest is to provide the public with systematic, high-level information on the factors, background information and interconnections affecting security.

Erkki Koort is a former deputy secretary general for internal security at the Estonian Ministry of the Interior. Meelis Oidsalu has worked as deputy secretary general in charge of various domains at the Ministry of Defense.

Previous «Julgeolek täna» programs can be watched on Postimees TV.