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The last 25 years have been exceptionally important for Estonia in securing our freedom and defense capability, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur writes.
When we began our journey to the European Union and NATO in the 1990s, we had a clear conviction: never again alone. And back then it seemed that good-neighborly relations with Russia might be possible and war in Europe unlikely.
But reality has changed – Russia clearly adopted a course towards dictatorship and an aggressive foreign policy at the turn of the millennium. Persecutions, propaganda campaigns and human rights violations are a painful reminder of why we fought for our freedom and why we now support Ukraine.
These events are confirmation that national defense is not just the task of the defense forces, but a joint effort of the people to preserve and protect our freedom. Freedom is not something to be taken for granted – it is a value that must be preserved and constantly re-secured.
Let's admit, these are anxious times. One could even say that the conditions for a so-called perfect storm have been created. Looking at the current political map of the world's major democratic powers right now, the situation is, to put it mildly, grim. France's early parliamentary elections have tipped the balance of power between the Elysée and parliament, while the German government has fallen apart in the storm winds and early elections are ahead.
The US is still searching for a calmer moment after a turbulent presidential election, and there is no clear understanding of whether the storm in a teacup that accompanied the election will turn into a hurricane, tsunami, or mild aftershock on January 20. What is certain, however, is that our strongest military ally will not be continuing as it has for the past four years.
If we add to the political storms of the major powers the deviation of Georgia from the European course, the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova and the Czech Republic, the changes that have already taken place in Hungary and Slovakia, and the change of the European Commission, we understand that from now until at least the end of the first quarter of next year we will be living in a very difficult period from the point of view of security and diplomacy, where the countries of the new so-called axis of evil will certainly have in their heads the idea that no good crisis can be allowed to go to waste for their own interests. At this point, it is appropriate to recall what the English philosopher and politician Edmund Burke said, which is that the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
And the risk of doing nothing is certainly considerable in the coming months. Therefore, we all have a moral obligation, based on our profession, work, and social power of speech, to contribute both globally and locally in the coming months to ensure that the turbulent sea of the coming months does not bring the rules-based world order into the center of the whirlwind.
But moving closer to home, I am glad that we have been able to make some pretty good and right choices over time, from restoring independence to joining the European Union and NATO.
Long and consistent development of the field of national defense has yielded results, where the latest public opinion surveys show that Estonian society's support for armed resistance has consistently been over 80 percent, and depending on their role in national defense, nearly two-thirds of the population, 61 percent to be precise, are willing to participate in defense activities.
Accordingly, it is also logical that over the past two years, more than 6,000 people have joined the Kaitseliit volunteer corps, and our umbrella organization for voluntary defense, together with the members of the youth and women's voluntary defense organizations, has grown to more than 30,000 members.
Estonians' support for the presence of allies also remains very high. Namely, approximately 80 percent of the population supports the presence of partners here.
An extremely important measure of the will to defend is also people's willingness to provide additional funding for national defense, and according to the latest survey, 72 percent of people in Estonia supported increasing or maintaining defense spending. Based on these figures, it is also logical that people generally support the development of national defense, which nearly 70 percent of people in Estonia have been very satisfied or rather satisfied with in recent years.
These high support figures have certainly also supported the necessary decisions to dramatically increase national defense spending. But can we stop there? The answer is NO. We have agreed on new regional defense plans in NATO and the military capability goals that inevitably accompany these defense plans. If we were to now somehow put these military capability goals into monetary terms, it can already be argued that even the increase in our defense spending to 3.7 percent in the coming years is not enough.
Whether the need is 4 or 4.5 or something else can be assessed more precisely next summer, when consultations with allies will end. By then, we will need to know who will shoulder how much of the common burden of collective defense. The fact is that both Estonia and all, I emphasize, all allies, need to contribute more to defense compared to now. It can be argued that it is difficult for countries to find additional money for national defense, since they also need it for healthcare, education, rescue and other things, but promises alone are not enough to deter Russia, a real increase in defense capabilities is needed.
Unfortunately, deterrence efforts in Europe so far have not been convincing. Let me provide just two figures here – while the defense spending of European countries has increased by 43 percent over the past 25 years, the corresponding figure for Russia is 592 percent, or more than 10 times more. And finally, 4 percent of societal wealth is a rather low price to pay for maintaining freedom when the alternative is the deportation or murder of cultural, intellectual and social figures and, most importantly, the loss of the right to self-determination.
These figures and scenarios are not meant to scare anyone. They are meant to remind us all why, as a small nation, we must devote so much of our common wealth to preserving our freedom.
At this point, in addition to the money figures and the equipment and ammunition, it is also important to focus on people. On the members of the defense forces, Kaitseliit, the police, rescuers, doctors and many others who, through regular or volunteer work, contribute every day to preserving freedom and to ensuring that we can go to bed with a peaceful heart every night. So that we can wake up every morning in a free Estonia. Thus, we all have a role to play. As a family member, a community leader, a local government leader, an entrepreneur, a journalist, a stare leader or a chef. This is the case both in the current draft winds and in the longer term.
We can all help foster the understanding that national defense is not just an expense, but an investment in our future. Even in the face of current political and economic difficulties, it is important to remember that our freedom and security are invaluable.
As I noted, Estonians' support for national defense and the presence of allies is impressively high, but we cannot stop. International developments require us to contribute more, both financially and morally. Our efforts are not just about weapons and money, but also about the readiness and unity of society.
Let our goal be to ensure that future generations of Estonians are also able to wake up every morning in a free and secure country. This is a mission that unites us all, and it is worth every effort. Our freedom is worth it.
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