TOOMAS ALATALU ⟩ Putin beaten with his own weapon

Photo: Konstantin Sednev / Postimees

• Putin/Russia's gamble in Syria has failed. Russia's global capability has visibly diminished.

To understand the extremely rapid changes that occurred in Syria over the ten days from November 27 to December 7, we should start from the map ingrained in memory that shows the areas controlled by the Assad regime, Turkey, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the former caliphate fighters), the Kurdish autonomy, the so-called Free Syrian Army, and the United States (Al-Tanfi in the south, and the so-called Trans-Euphrates region) in different colors, Toomas Alatalu writes.

Plus, separately, two Russian military bases and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In all these places, armed men were in control. Such boundaries between forces persisted for the last 8-13 years, if we take the 2011 uprising in Daraa in the south, which was violently suppressed, and the razing of Raqqa, the center of the Islamic Caliphate, in 2015, as the starting points. Understandably, these regions dominated by different parties did not interact with each other or only did so when forced by immediate needs. Adding to this were the tensions and concerns that Syrians have been facing since October 2023 due to the ongoing hostilities in neighboring Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, as well as Israel's constant airstrikes on Syria and Iran. All this is happening against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the support or non-support for it.

As they say – one can endure everything, one can get used to everything, everything that happens is taken as a recurring inevitability, and then, at one moment, there comes a warlord who puts his men on armored vehicles and, at one fell swoop, takes all the cities that used to be in the hands of the regime – Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus. The victorious column moves from north to south, and no one can stop its movement. I have already pointed out that among the foreign countries backing Assad, China was the first to recognize the seriousness of the situation, asking its citizens to leave the country as quickly as possible, but this only accelerated the entire process that followed.

As what has happened has the most far-reaching impact on Russia, it is tempting to start by recalling the event that transformed the then not-too-colorful head of Russia's foreign intelligence service (FSB) into today's dictator Putin – a man no longer on the acceptable list for some, but still on the acceptable list for others.

Namely, in March 1999, NATO decided to deploy its troops to Yugoslavia/Serbia to prevent the genocide of Kosovars. In response, the then Russian prime minister, Primakov, canceled his visit to the United States in such a way that he had his plane make a U-turn over the Atlantic and land in Moscow. Two and a half months later, the Kremlin surprised again when NATO troops – Norwegian and British units – advancing in Kosovo found the Pristina airport manned by a 200-strong Russian unit that had simply driven 600 kilometers past and through the moving NATO troops, who just stared at what was happening with their mouths agape. Upon a report from the Brits, NATO's supreme commander Clark ordered the Russians to be stopped, which the British general did not do, citing the threat of World War III.

In other words, extraordinary audacity allowed the Russian chief of the general staff, Kvashnin, who planned the operation, and his deputy Baluyevsky, who had informed only the chief of foreign intelligence of their plan, to succeed. President Yeltsin had no choice but to rejoice, and a month and a half later Putin became prime minister. Understandably, the role of Putin has been repeatedly rewritten in Russia, and the version presented here was published for the first time after the aggression against Georgia, but the logic is simple – surprise your adversary and rivals with what their action plans have not foreseen, and success is guaranteed.

I recalled this old episode because Putin himself has repeatedly mentioned the need to act audaciously (as evidenced by his bragging in recent days – Oreshnik is not a nuclear weapon, but it does the same job and even more!). Now it can be said that he was beaten with his own weapon. That the men of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leader Abu Mohamed al-Jolani met no resistance was largely a result of the long-term nature of the confrontation and the resulting decline in morale and operational capacity. The regime held on primarily thanks to foreign support, but Russia, Iran, Turkey, and also China (formerly the main supporter of the Syrian army) all had their own, often conflicting interests in Syria. In the case of the United States, we should not forget their quagmire in Afghanistan and the difficulties they faced in fighting the Islamic Caliphate.

Future President Donald Trump has already announced that, at this time, the United States does not need to interfere in what is happening in Syria. Of course, he can't say more now, but at least Moscow was painfully bitten. Notably, in the same statement, he declared that for Russia, which has lost 600,000 men in Ukraine, Assad's fall is a manifestation of its real weakness. What is certain is that all those involved in supporting Ukraine think the same.

Since Saturday, events in Damascus have unfolded as they typically do during this kind of upheavals in power – al-Jolani, appearing on TV with his commanders, announced the beginning of a new era, after which the prime minister was shown, who declared readiness for a smooth transition of power to an authority that represents the will of the people. What this new authority will look like is unknown, as during the days of the victorious military campaign there were no announcements from any of the areas controlled by the various parties declaring support for this or that force. At the same time, it's hard to believe that the other centers, which looked on as the military campaign evolved, will now accept a situation where HTS alone is in power. Of course, there will be a promise to hold elections at some point, but in such a fragmented country it will hardly produce a meaningful result. Rather, everything is decided today and will be decided going forward by a narrow circle of people. Who will be included in said circle is unknown, however, as is where the decisions will be made.

The UN special envoy for Syria was quick to call for the parties to gather in Geneva, but it is likely that the meeting will take place in the Emirates instead. However, this remains uncertain. What is more important at the moment is that everything progresses peacefully, and of course, to wait for what the Kremlin will say and conclude about the entire situation. It should be clear by now that the daily proclamations of capturing some village in Ukraine no longer conceal what is known to everyone and getting home to the public – Putin/Russia's gamble in Syria has failed. Russia's global capability has visibly diminished.