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Fighting in the civil war has broken out again in Syria, mainly near the major city of Aleppo. Who is the opposition that started the fighting and who could benefit from it, writes Erkki Koort, security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences.
Rebels led by the extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham began an offensive against Aleppo last week, and on December 2, it became clear that government forces no longer control the city. It is claimed that the rebels are advancing toward Idlib and into rural areas of the neighboring province of Hama, also moving toward the city of Hama. Additionally, they are securing surrounding areas to ensure the retention of the captured territories.
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According to reports, government forces established a fortified defensive line north of Hama, while the Syrian Air Force and the Russians bombarded areas held by the rebels, killing about 400 rebels. Independent observers have confirmed the deaths of this number of civilians.
Israel's position since the beginning of the civil war has been very simple: the more they kill each other in Syria, the easier it is for Israel.
According to the latest reports, Moscow has begun to evacuate its diplomats from Damascus.
Who are they?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not a newcomer, but it has previously remained in the shadow of larger or more brutal organizations. The name can be translated as the «Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.» The Levant is a territory that includes Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.
The organization is believed to have been formed in 2017, but its roots are much deeper. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham split from Jabhat al-Nusra, an organization that used to be part of Al-Qaeda's so-called terror bloc. In fact, it is not always possible to draw clear lines, as they have continued to cooperate with the so-called parent organizations at different times, but there have also been mutual attacks and arrests. These are believed to be due to internal power struggles and the splinter organization's attempt to present itself as a strong independent player.
Since foundation, they have been mainly active in the Syrian civil war, with the most active attacks in 2017-2018. After that, their momentum slowed down a bit, but essentially the civil war, too, was in a frozen state with no major changes since 2020.
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It is a terrorist movement that counts Syria, Russia and the United States as its enemies. In their statements, its leaders have emphasized the desire to conquer Damascus, but «if Allah allows, to also move on Jerusalem.»
Who benefited from this?
Simply put, it was not beneficial for Syria, Russia, or Iran. Both Russia and Iran have already expressed support for Damascus. Benefit has mainly been talked about in the context of Ukraine, as it forces Russia to split its focus and forces.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham split from Jabhat al-Nusra, an organization that used to be part of Al-Qaeda's so-called terror bloc.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the current situation has been caused by the United States and Israel, which the US quickly rejected. The US role in this is indeed quite questionable, as the current administration would not have approved of this. Israel meanwhile has both the interest and the capability to escalate the situation.
First, Israel's position since the beginning of the civil war has been very simple: the more they kill each other in Syria, the easier it is for Israel. Second, the terrorist group Hezbollah has been actively involved in the Syrian civil war. Israel is fighting it in Lebanon, and its fragmentation is good for Israel militarily. Hezbollah has been in chaos since the pager and radio blasts, and every additional blow would fragment it.
Third, the new situation is a challenge for Iran. A hybrid or proxy war is being waged between Israel and Iran, and the latest conflict is forcing Iran to reassess its options for supporting Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. This will not stop Iran, but will confuse it and force it to fragment its activities more.
Fourth, Israel is interested in reducing Russia's influence in the region. The reason for this interest is not a desire to support Ukraine, but rather its own security interests. Moscow intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, which led to a flood of refugees to Europe, but Israel also lost its air superiority for a while. The Russian Air Force and air defenses brought to the region did not allow Israel the freedom it had enjoyed earlier.
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The removal of launch equipment from Syria due to the war in Ukraine allowed Israel to immediately begin destroying Syrian and Iranian targets. Russia's ability to interfere with Israel's operations has diminished, but Israel is interested in not having them in Syria at all. This would allow it to be even more free in its actions.
In conclusion, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is definitely not an ally of Israel and is not acting at Israel's behest. However, it is likely that Israel is at least partially involved in the current escalation, because it is extremely beneficial to them. It allows to reduce pressure, confuse the adversary and force it to choose which situation to deal with as a matter of priority.
The actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham likely provide some relief to both Israel and Ukraine, but the advancement of a terrorist organization is certainly not a positive development.
Undoubtedly, Russia does not want to leave Syria, but as long as it is not possible for them to easily remove equipment from the war in Ukraine, choices must be made. It is certain that Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran are all looking for a way out of the current situation.
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