TARMO PIKNER ⟩ The echoes of December 1 gunshots still resonate like the tolling of the Kremlin's bells

Tarmo Pikner. Photo: Erik Prozes

• We must move forward without getting trapped in snares set a hundred years ago.
• Today’s pace of life and war is far faster than it was during the founding of NATO and the EU.
• The West urgently needs to start building a new UN.

Wise people have said that everything changes, everything evolves. Yet there are constants in human history. One of them is the echo of the bells of the Kremlin, whether tolled by Ivan the Terrible, Lenin, Stalin, or Putin. The chime of the Kremlin bells from December 1, 1924, are just as haunting today, a century later. And that sound is anything but uplifting, columnist Tarmo Pikner writes.

First, a recollection from the insurgents' side, when the Communist International reacted to the events in Tallinn a hundred years ago, it declared in the St. Petersburg press on January 11: «The workers fought like lions. With almost bare hands, they seized a series of vital state institutions. Left entirely to their own devices, without any outside help, they charged against the bourgeois reaction intoxicated with workers' blood.»

And now some excerpts from Western publications, offering a fascinating comparison to today's media narratives within our geopolitical context. We do not even need to recall Jaan Anvelt's revolver shots near the Balti Jaam railway station, which fatally struck an Estonian officer. Still, it must be acknowledged that December 1 has never truly ended. The aggressor's eastern winds howl ever more fiercely, which is why it is our task to share our experience with Western allies. Interestingly, the West understood the situation similarly to us a hundred years ago, as the following examples demonstrate. We must remind them of this.

The Times of London wrote in its December 4 editorial: «Estonia lives in the light of the West on the coast of the Baltic Sea, while its neighbor Russia is dark and threatening, ruled by a power whose hand opposes the entire world.» The Observer was more specific in its December 7 edition: «By artificially inciting hostility toward the Baltic states, Soviet Russia laid the groundwork for an attempt to seize power over these countries, which block its efforts to revolutionize Western Europe.» Even the socialist The New Statesman was direct in its December 6 issue: «That Russians were involved is certain. The leading Bolsheviks are not only indirectly responsible through their propaganda but also directly contributed to the uprising.»

The French newspaper Journal des Débats noted on December 3: «The Bolsheviks have shown how they transition from agitation to action. They are indeed threatening the entire world». Germany's Deutsche Allgemeine Zeitung offered a strikingly modern perspective: «Since 1921, Europe has lulled itself to sleep, dreaming that the Russian Communist Party has abandoned its plans for a global revolution. The uprising in Tallinn must awaken Europe from this dream. The blood spilled in Tallinn must not have been shed in vain.»

And finally, the Polish Baltische Presse wrote on December 3: «Neither Estonia nor the other Baltic states should face serious threats from either Red or White Russia. A common enemy must be fought together.» Wise words!

Do these quotes not sound contemporary? We could trace back even to Ivan the Terrible's time and discover that the pattern remains the same. Yet we must move forward. By «we», I mean the West, and we need to move forward without falling into the traps set a hundred years ago.

But then came Munich. Not Hitler's Munich but Putin's Munich, in 2007. Yet the message was the same: «The world is mine». Putin, with his blunt admission that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century (worse than two world wars!), outlined a new world order, leaving no room for dissent. The Kremlin's bell ringer then began implementing his obsession, starting with the covert theft of Crimea from Ukraine (the «little green men»), followed by a full-scale war that is now in its third year across Ukraine's territory. Meanwhile, some of the old scrap metal occasionally lands on NATO territory, sabotage groups wreak havoc across Europe, not to mention the takeover of cyberspace. The entire Baltic Sea's water and airspace are part of Russia’s computer simulations, where all kinds of war games are being played out. Hybrid war? What hybrid war? This is an open war on the West, using every available means (short of nuclear weapons)—a renewed expansion of living space (Russkiy Mir).

It begs a provocative question – was the date of Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022, really a coincidence?

The West puts on an angry face and raises its voice, but in the new world order, that carries no weight.

The West puts on an angry face and raises its voice, but in the new world order, that carries no weight. Diplomacy has an entirely different meaning. Putin stares Western leaders in the eye with a dead gaze and declares black to be white, and so it is. The West (including us) sets high ambitions, yet simultaneously imposes restrictive red lines on itself, just as NATO and the EU have operated on consensus since their inception. The pace of modern life and warfare is far quicker than when these defense mechanisms were established. Missiles and fighter jets have become much faster, requiring decisions to match—otherwise, they will simply come too late. NATO and the EU operate on the lowest common denominator of consensus politics. Instead, they should aim for the greatest common denominator—effectiveness. At the very least, we should learn from our primary adversary that red lines should be drawn for the enemy, not ourselves.

Moreover, while the West may surpass the rest of the world militarily and technologically, this is not true in other areas. The global peace proclaimed in the years following World War II was short-lived. The Cold War soon began, which has gradually transitioned into a hot one, though not yet a full-scale war. Whether this is the third or fourth world war is irrelevant. What matters is the understanding that humanity is at war. This has been the case since the cave era and will continue in the age of artificial intelligence (fueled by Hollywood's junk culture). The toothless UN, which was supposed to restrain humanity's primitive instincts, is now just an echo of the past. Recognizing this should spur action to establish a new defense mechanism.

In real life, one cannot be «somewhat of an aggressor» or «somewhat not an aggressor». Nor can democracy be declared universally, with each nation tailoring the rules to its own whims. Terminology for existential concepts has been devalued; dictionaries no longer reflect their original purpose.

NATO's eastern flank must present a unified voice and compel the organization to act immediately—for example, if Russian bomb fragments fall on Polish soil—without waiting for a full-scale missile barrage. By then, it would be too late. We recall how, just two years ago, we were blindsided by the revelation (at least among the public) that NATO's umbrella would only open after Estonia is destroyed, leaving it to heroic rebuilding efforts. By that point, who would still want anything to do with such devastated land? We now learn that, in the worst-case scenario, we might all be evacuated entirely. Was Macron, seeking attention, not somewhat correct in calling NATO «brain-dead» (at least at the time)? NATO cannot even retrieve the border markers at the Narva River from the Russians.

Meanwhile, our ally Turkey, under Erdoğan, swings down a third path between two worlds, seeking lost grandeur, but the Ottoman Empire is gone. History has repeatedly shown that those who pursue a third way end up at a dead end or merge into one of the two sides in a black-and-white world.

Ukraine needs the decision-making authority to fight with both hands, without needing to ask arms suppliers for permission on the range of their strikes.

It is regrettable to admit that we are in the same position as in 1921, when the treaty between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland was ready to be signed. However, differing threat assessments led Finland, Lithuania, and Poland to withdraw one by one, leaving Estonia and Latvia to fend for themselves. The result was another great war, and now we watch as Ivan the Fool prepares to expand globally with his flying carpet.

This dusty document should now be retrieved from the archives, cleaned, and placed on NATO's table with the message: «Look, we warned you 103 years ago about the dangers Europe faces, and here we are again, eating the same stale soup.» NATO's eastern flank, bordering Russia, must have its defense plan and decision-making authority, avoiding reliance on Turkey or Hungary to wake up and decide whether to open the umbrella.

Similarly, Ukraine needs the decision-making authority to fight with both hands, without needing to ask arms suppliers for permission on the range of their strikes. If the West cannot restore order, it should let Ukrainians do so with their hands (and missiles), taking the Israeli approach used against Iran. If that does not suffice, isolate Russia from the civilized world with a «Great Wall», barring even the smallest breaches, let alone anyone fond of eastbound freight transport.

Additionally, the West must urgently begin building a new UN (under a different name, of course), as Putin, Xi, and Kim are already doing. BRICS is the platform for their confrontation with the West. It sounds sarcastic, but the world is dividing in two. Being politically incorrect—it is impossible to create a global paradise, and we must accept that the Earth still hosts trees of good and evil.

Of course, the author understands that civilization is far more complex than a simplistic depiction of a bipolar world. Yet, sometimes it is useful to reduce all colors to black and white to provoke sober reflection. Vivid colors can blind us and obscure danger signals. Like photography, while color images are pleasing to view, black-and-white pictures often reveal more shadows, providing hidden details that remain concealed in everyday life's vibrant palette.

In summary, we should momentarily disassemble the mechanisms of civilization into black-and-white building blocks and then wisely start adding colors to them.