ERKKI KOORT ⟩ There are signs that Russia is also at a critical point in the war

The war was supposed to last for three days, but is still consuming an enormous amount of resources for both sides. There seems to be such a shortage of Russian tanks that extra ones are already being taken from film studio warehouses. A Russian tank on fire in the city of Sumy on the third day of the war. Later, the Ukrainians liberated Sumy. Photo: SWNS

• Moscow has brought hybrid attacks back into the picture.
• Film tanks are being sent to the front.
• The Kremlin is strongly emphasizing who the occupied territories belong to.

The war of aggression against Ukraine has reached its 1,000th day and also its next breaking point. Erkki Koort, security expert at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences and Postimees, writes about what the signs of this are.

The three-day war in Ukraine started by the Kremlin has so far gone 997 days beyond the deadline set by Putin and is showing no signs of ending yet. True, Putin has also repeatedly confirmed during the last week that his goal continues to be the demilitarization of Ukraine.

Despite the revised doctrine, the use of a nuclear weapon is currently unlikely, but it is not at all impossible that some Russian cable will break soon.

As in any war, there have been many moments during these 1,000 days where both sides have been close to breaking. It is mainly resource problems that have started to plague them. Both Kyiv and Moscow have been able to address them, but not to the extent that significant progress has been made. The following is a selection of signs that should not be taken as an exhaustive list.

The world’s second army

Remember that at the beginning of the war, the term «the world’s second army» was used for the Russian army. It was considered to be comparable in strength to that of the United States, although Moscow itself of course considered itself to be much more capable.

It became clear relatively early on that the Russian professional regular army would wear out very quickly in battles. Here, Iran came to the rescue with drones and North Korea with missiles. North Korean troops have now appeared on the battlefield and are consumables. 10,000 men may seem like a lot, but looking at the current state of losses, it will be «used up» in six to seven days.

The current situation is comparable to the one before North Korean missiles reached the battlefield. The most characteristic was the cry of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner shadow army, against the background of the corpses of the shadow army soldiers: «Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where’s the f***ing ammunition?!»

Mosfilm lends a helping hand

The lack of resources is actually immense, because the war has required large quantities of tanks and armored vehicles. Three years ago, the supply of tanks used in films to the Russian army would have made it into the curiosities section of news. But that's exactly what happened when the head of Mosfilm met with Putin and announced that they would give military equipment from their warehouses to the army.

Claims to the conquered lands are emphasized at every step with such consistency that it leaves no doubt about Moscow's precarious position.

Based on information from the head of Mosfilm, 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and eight tractors were handed over to the army. That's not all, as according to public sources, the film studio has a total of 190 armored vehicles. Although now the figure stands at 148.

After Mosfilm gave its T-55 tanks to the Russian army, mostly T-34s from World War II remain. Given the lack of war machines, their mass arrival on the battlefield can by no means be ruled out. Photo: Cezary Piwowarski/Wiki

Why is this news important? Because the equipment being handed over originates from the 1950s. It is old and depreciated in every way. The rest is probably largely unmovable or dates from the 1940s and 1930s. It is not at all ruled out that we will see the remaining T-34 tanks in larger quantities on the battlefield already this year.

Negotiations

Another sign that can be highlighted is the increasingly frequent statements of Russian officials on the subject of negotiations or forcing peace. For example, former minister of defense and current Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu came out with a statement that the West has a choice between starting talks with Moscow regarding Ukraine or continuing to destroy the population there. Shoigu's appeal touched on the strong message of «recognizing the reality that has arisen». Other officials, as well as Putin himself, have issued the same message. In reality, however, this is a clear sign that things are not going well for Russia on the battlefield, and a break is needed to secure itself even further.

The Russian army has received support from North Korea in the form of munitions and soldiers. Although the quality of ammunition is poor and the number of North Korean soldiers is not large, this allows the Russians to press forward. Pictured: the ruler of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong-un, and the then minister of defense of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, at a meeting on July 26, 2023. Photo: KCNA/EPA

Claims to the conquered lands are emphasized at every step with such consistency that it leaves no doubt about Moscow's precarious position. The mindless attack has consumed resources to an extent that does not allow for a long push forward. This is, of course, if Moscow does not manage to quickly find some way to rapidly replenish resources.

War costs

There is no doubt that Putin is ready to send out every last soldier and tank against Ukraine. However, Russia's reserves are not endless either. A lot has already been written about the competition between the regions of Russia on who can pay a higher subsidy for joining the war.

Three years ago, the supply of tanks used in films to the Russian army would have made it into the curiosities section of news.

The record for going to war is known to be held by the Belgorod region, where three million rubles (approximately 28,400 euros) are paid upon signing the contract. The Khanty-Mansi autonomous district follows with 2.75 million rubles (26,000 euros).

However, the increasing number of wounded has resulted in the need to make unpleasant choices. The current maximum amount of compensation is three million rubles (approximately 28,400 euros), regardless of the severity of the injury.

However, an approved amendment divides injuries into three categories. Three million rubles will still be paid for a serious injury, one million rubles (approximately 9,500 euros) for a «minor» injury, and only 100,000 rubles (approximately 950 euros) for «other lighter injuries». In other words, the compensation for being wounded will, as a rule, be lower than the compensation for joining the war.

One of the reasons is definitely the increased number of wounded, because in the second half of this year Russia's losses in manpower have increased a lot.

Hybrid attacks

In general, a trend can be noticed that the worse things are going on the battlefield, the more Russia focuses on hybrid attacks and nuclear blackmail.

On Sunday, November 17, 2024, two fiber optic communication cables at the bottom of the Baltic Sea broke. One connected Sweden and Lithuania, while the other ran between Finland and Germany. Several countries have stated that they believe this to be sabotage. At the same time, it has not been possible to attribute previous damage to cables and pipes to Russia with full certainty either. However, it is quite certain that the only country on the Baltic Sea that is interested in cutting the cables is Russia itself.

When it comes to the current disruptions to cables, countries have mentioned a hybrid attack, but no previous incidents have been successfully attributed either. A photo of the Nord Stream gas leak taken from the aircraft of Kustbevakningen, the coast guard authority of Sweden, released on September 27, 2022. Photo: HANDOUT/AFP

On the 1,000th day since the start of hostilities against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin also signed a decree allowing the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if it is supported by nuclear states. Both the threat of nuclear weapons and hybrid attacks are usually added to the agenda when it is necessary to frighten the West or to persuade it to stop supporting Ukraine's military activities.

Despite the revised doctrine, the use of a nuclear weapon is currently unlikely, but it is not at all impossible that some Russian cable will break soon. Moscow often uses this kind of masking, which allows them to be publicly portrayed as victims and to reduce public blame.