AMBASSADOR OF UKRAINE IN ESTONIA ⟩ The Thousand Days War: How Could It End?

Maksym Kononenko. Photo: Jelena Ivanova

During another shelling on November 7, a Russian drone struck a residential building in Kyiv where my colleague, the Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine, Annely Kolk, resides. Upon learning of this incident, I immediately sent her words of support. Her response was simple and concise, with her characteristic Estonian composure, she wrote, «Many Ukrainians are struggling with terrorist russia drones and bombs and rockets. Their strength and resilience give us strength too.»

I have known Annely for over a year, and I know she neither complained nor boasted. Her words carried no pathos. She simply lives in Kyiv full-time and experiences daily what millions of Ukrainians have been enduring for 1 000 days of this large-scale war: confidence in their cause, a calm determination to defend their country, and a resolute commitment to see it through to the end. She feels the freedom that has arisen in the hearts of Ukrainians and the readiness to defend it at any cost, even if it means sacrificing one’s own life.

Many outside observers, after listening to the news, throw up their hands and start «burying» Ukraine. A thousand days have passed since the start of the full-scale invasion, they say. Ukrainians are exhausted, you lack weapons, ammunition, and personnel. On the international stage, everything seems chaotic: the EU and NATO lack unity in assisting Ukraine, elections have just been held in the United States, and elections in Germany are approaching, making it difficult to predict their impact on the war.

While the collective West apparently struggles to formulate a coherent strategy for Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat, the Kremlin is forming and strengthening an «axis of evil», involving not only international outcasts like North Korea and Iran but also more moderate antagonists of the West. Recent intelligence reports indicate that 12 000 soldiers and millions of shells from North Korea, Iranian drones, and missiles are not the only assistance Russia’s satellites can provide. Russian troops are gradually advancing in Donetsk Oblast, flooding the battlefields with «cannon fodder» and outdated Soviet equipment. «You’ve been driven into a corner», couch experts claim. «Why aren’t you afraid, and what are you hoping for? Start negotiations immediately, or you’ll lose even more...»

While the collective West apparently struggles to formulate a coherent strategy for Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat, the Kremlin is forming and strengthening an «axis of evil»

But those who live in Ukraine under shelling, like Annely Kolk, or those who regularly visit Kyiv, Kherson, Dnipro, Kharkiv, the rear areas, and the frontlines, know that for Ukrainians, there have long been no hopeless situations or «dead ends». Yes, today is challenging for us, and that is absolutely true. Yes, we worry about tomorrow, and that too is true. But when people say, “You’ve been driven into a corner”, they imply that the country and its people are in despair, that everything is lost, and that they have nothing to hope for. That is no longer the case.

I recently returned from Ukraine, where I spent several days accompanying the Estonian Minister of Defense, Hanno Pevkur, on his visit. During this time, I sensed a focused, intense anticipation of the future in the air, but no fear or despair. People do not know what decisions the EU will make tomorrow or what position the newly elected President of the United States will take. But they are absolutely certain that they will fight for their state, for their society, for their language, culture, and historical memory until the end – and they are not afraid.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has been ongoing for more than ten years, and the full-scale invasion is now in its third year. During this time, Ukrainians have come to terms with the concept of death. As the French philosopher Michel de Montaigne once said: «We do not know where death awaits us; let us wait for it everywhere. He who has learned to die has unlearned how to be a slave. The readiness to die frees you from all subjection and compulsion». Ukrainians have learned to die and have unlearned how to be slaves. Ukrainians no longer fear death and see no «dead ends». We remain resilient and hopeful for a better future.

Russian invaders are attempting to break through our defenses in Donetsk Oblast, with the hottest directions being Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. In Kharkiv Oblast, Kupiansk is under threat, and in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, tensions are rising near Orikhiv. It is no secret that Russians are amassing forces there to launch an offensive operation. These are the harsh realities of war. The situation at the front is challenging but under control. Ukrainian forces are currently engaged in maneuverable, dynamic defense. They move to preserve lives while inflicting maximum damage on the enemy. We hold onto every piece of territory and every settlement, surrendering them only under enemy pressure, inflicting maximum losses, and depleting their offensive potential.

Since February 2022, Russia has suffered irreversible losses: 720,000 military personnel, over 9,000 tanks, more than 20,000 artillery systems, 369 aircraft, and 329 helicopters. Approximately 1,250 multiple rocket launcher systems, over 19,000 armored fighting vehicles, and 28 warships have been destroyed. Ukraine has also incapacitated and neutralized about 33 percent of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. I do not think this can be described as a defeat or a «dead end».

Unlike many international partners blinded by Russian propaganda and constant threats of escalation, Ukrainians have a clear vision of how to end the war, achieve peace, and prevent any future Russian aggression. This vision has been outlined in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula and the Victory Plan, recently presented by the Ukrainian leader to all key allies.

First, we understand that Russia is not willing to negotiate, and Putin knows no other language than the language of ultimatums. Two hundred rounds of negotiations with Russia, including in the Normandy Format and the Minsk platform, have demonstrated that it is not prepared to sit at the table with Ukraine as equals and negotiate peace in good faith. At the same time, no matter how isolated Russia may be, it cannot ignore the entire international community. Therefore, Ukraine has set a goal to transform its Peace Formula into an international peace plan.

Two hundred rounds of negotiations with Russia, including in the Normandy Format and the Minsk platform, have demonstrated that it is not prepared to sit at the table with Ukraine as equals and negotiate peace in good faith.

A significant step was taken on June 15-16, 2024, in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. The first Peace Summit for Ukraine gathered 101 countries and international organizations that supported this initiative. In the fall, conferences and roundtables were held, creating a substantive framework for peace negotiations. Transparent and agreed upon by all participants, this framework will be presented at the second peace summit, where Russian representatives will also have the opportunity to participate. If Russia says «no», it will not be a rejection of Ukraine but of the international community. Russia will deny peace to each of you.

Secondly, the path to peace lies solely through the battlefield. Russia does not understand any language other than force and coercion. Without success on the battlefield, any peace initiatives are perceived as weakness, a pause before another attack, or an invitation for further aggression. For this reason, Ukraine has developed its Victory Plan. The plan consists of five points.

1. NATO membership now: The Kremlin must realize that armed aggression cannot alter the will of the Ukrainian people, who have chosen the path toward NATO membership.
2. Defense: It is critical to remove restrictions by our partners on the use of long-range weapons. Ukraine must obtain missiles, drones, and other strike capabilities to target all enemy military infrastructure across the entire territory of the Russian Federation. This also includes equipping reserve brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, strengthening air defense systems, and creating an “air shield” at least over the western regions of Ukraine.
3. Deterrence: We propose deploying a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on Ukrainian territory, sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat from Russia.
4. Strategic economic potential: Ukraine’s land is rich not only with fertile soil. Ukraine has significant deposits of critical resources such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and others. We propose to strategic partners the creation of a special agreement on the joint protection, investment, and use of these critical resources.
5. Post-war perspective: We envision, with the consent of our partners, the substitution of certain U.S. military contingents stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units.

The implementation of the Peace Formula and the Victory Plan is the shortest path to a sustainable and just peace in Ukraine and across the European continent. We must achieve it together. Together with all allies and partners, together with friendly Estonia. Ukrainians are not tired of fighting because one cannot tire of defending one’s freedom and dignity, the independence of one’s state, the past of one’s parents, and the future of one’s children.

It is crucial for us that Estonians do not grow weary of supporting Ukraine in this noble struggle and continue to demonstrate their phenomenal leadership in this cause.

I have been working in Estonia for over a year, and I feel every day what hundreds of thousands of Estonians have felt for 1 000 days of this large-scale war: Ukraine is not only fighting its own war but also the war for Estonia, all the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, and other countries that Russia has not attacked, though it could have. Assistance to Ukraine must meet the scale of the challenge. Mere assistance is not enough; it must inspire others, lead by example, and move mountains for the sake of the goal. I sense the leadership that has arisen in the hearts of Estonians and their willingness to help, even if it sometimes requires more than health, time, or wealth. Estonian leadership inspires me as much as the strength and resilience of Ukrainians inspire my colleague Annely.