ERKKI KOORT ⟩ Global reshuffle: Tallinn as the closest NATO capital city to North Korea

North Korea tries to present itself as larger and more powerful than it really is. Its army has not engaged in combat since the 1950s, nor has it taken part in any peacekeeping operations. An army without real combat experience cannot fight, no matter the propaganda. Military exercises in North Korea, March 13, 2024. Photo: KCNA

• Another country has joined the war.
• Will Kyiv declare war on Pyongyang?
• The cooperation displeases both Beijing and Seoul.

North Korea has intervened in Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine, posing significant challenges for the United States, NATO, and Estonia, Erkki Koort, security expert at the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences and Postimees, writes.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), commonly known as North Korea, is usually distant and isolated for us, with little connection to our geopolitical location. Yet, despite the distance and limited interaction, Tallinn is the closest NATO capital to North Korea. Moreover, Kaja Kallas, who is set to become the EU's high representative for foreign affairs, will need to address the threats and challenges posed by North Korea more intensively. This, in turn, will undoubtedly make this pariah state more aware of Estonia. But above all, we are part of NATO, and global conflicts involving our allies do, to some extent, affect us.

12,000 men may seem like a significant force and will undoubtedly cause problems, but it is worth remembering that this is roughly the number of Russian soldiers who are killed or wounded in Ukraine in about ten days.

Russia has signed a mutual defense pact with North Korea, creating conditions for mutual assistance in the event of an external attack. Since Russia has come under Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, involving North Korean soldiers in the war is «entirely consistent with international law,» as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov typically puts it in such cases.

Russia and North Korea have rapidly become close over the past year. For Moscow, this is a forced move, but for Pyongyang, it significantly boosts its influence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shaking hands with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui at their meeting in Pyongyang on October 19, 2023. Photo: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY PRESS SERVICE HANDOUT

Few prisoners

The first hints of North Korea's possible involvement in the war emerged as early as in March-April 2022. At that time, there was also talk of involving Syrian soldiers in the war. However, Syria lacked sufficient numbers of soldiers, and they were not very combat-ready, so the rumors subsided. Russia addressed its shortage of soldiers by recruiting prisoners, increasing one-time payments, and mobilization.

Clearly, the shortage of soldiers remains an issue, and this solution allows Russia to postpone further mobilization. Reports indicate that DPRK soldiers are already at the front and have suffered their first casualties. However, Russia has cleverly addressed its shortage of prisoners and compensated for the decline in volunteers.

The published figures also suggests that keeping North Koreans at the front is cheaper than involving prisoners.

Although Moscow pays for participation in the war, North Korean soldiers likely do not see a single cent of this money. It is estimated that about 2,000 dollars are paid per soldier per month, but this money is used to fill the state coffers, not to compensate soldiers or their families. The published figures also suggests that keeping North Koreans at the front is cheaper than involving prisoners.

Although Kyiv continuously reports information about North Korea's army joining the war, it has not rushed to declare war on Pyongyang. The debris of a North Korean missile fired at Kharkiv in early January 2024. Photo: Juri Larin

Beijing and Seoul

Although China and South Korea often have opposing interests and goals, neither of them welcomes North Korea's involvement in the war. South Korea is unsettled by its northern neighbor becoming close with Russia and the aid that strengthens the state. They are especially concerned that their main enemy is gaining real combat experience. Pyongyang has not participated in any peacekeeping operations either.

South Korea has announced that it is considering sending intelligence officers specializing in North Korea and tactical experts to Ukraine, as well as other appropriate personnel. These specialists would interrogate captured soldiers and translate. An important part of their work would also be providing Kyiv with information on North Korea's military doctrine, tactics, and operations. Seoul has two main reasons for involvement. First, South Korea is extremely interested in the actual combat capability of these forces and what experiences they gain. Second, North Korea's alignment with a potential victor would create significant problems.

Pyongyang's move also poses a headache for China. Beijing has had significant control over the pariah state, and its word has mattered. Now, China's influence over both Pyongyang and Moscow has waned. With this step, Russia has improved its position relative to China and seems to feel less tethered to Beijing.

A declaration of war?

North Korea has shifted from being an indirect participant in the conflict to an active combatant. Previously, they supplied shells and missiles; now, their troops are directly engaged on the battlefield. The question concerns the reaction of both the West and Ukraine. Will Kyiv declare war on Pyongyang? If not, then why? Previously, both North Korea and Iran could be viewed as suppliers rather than active combatants. The situation has now changed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized the West for insufficient response to the greatly changed situation in the war. Yet Kyiv itself has refrained from a declaration of war, although it has repeatedly published intelligence on North Korean troops on the battlefield.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting special forces training in September 2024. The activity may seem intimidating, but it actually has little to do with what is happening on the battlefield. Photo: South Korea's National Intelligence Service

NATO's response is likely restrained by the United States' reaction, where the next president will soon be elected. Consequently, everyone is waiting for the next steps. When Donald Trump was president, he met with North Korea’s dictator and tried to build relations, but we know nothing about Kamala Harris' actual North Korea policy. The situation will likely become clearer a few weeks after the elections, but the timing of North Korean soldiers' arrival on the battlefield is precise.

The question concerns the reaction of both the West and Ukraine. Will Kyiv declare war on Pyongyang? If not, then why?

It is definitely important to monitor the course of events, but the principle is more significant than the number of troops currently discussed. 12,000 men may seem like a significant force and will undoubtedly cause problems, but it is worth remembering that this is roughly the number of Russian soldiers who are killed or wounded in Ukraine in about ten days. Therefore, by using this cannon fodder, Russia has postponed its problems by about two weeks. It is clear that they are also looking for new solutions, and it is not out of the question that as many or even more troops are already on the way.

As a result of the move by Russia and North Korea, a new player has entered the stage. The issue now is not the number of troops sent. The cooperation with Russia has boosted Pyongyang's sense of self-importance, and this collaboration will be a problem for both NATO and South Korea. However, it seems that not everyone realizes this yet.