MART LAAR ⟩ Michal fell into the same trap as Kallas

Mart Laar Photo: Tairo Lutter

• It's already being said that Michal is a minister in Läänemets' government
• I was particularly disappointed trying to understand the national defense portion of the budget bill
• The prime minister's seat does not have to bring either popularity or trust

A few months ago, I analyzed the Michal government's coalition agreement and concluded that the only certainty at the moment was that nothing was certain. Although I was somewhat skeptical about whether the new government can avoid repeating the mistakes of the previous one, I promised to speak again when it becomes clear whether the Michal government will take concrete actions in addition to words or if everything will remain just talk, former Prime Minister Mart Laar (Isamaa) writes.

Now, the 2025 state budget bill is in the Riigikogu for the second reading and it's time. I know that, as a critic of the state budget, I run the risk of ending up on Jürgen Ligi's list of Kremlin mouthpieces, not to mention that I could end up in the sights of the chief socialist's conscience police. Just in case, I will voluntarily admit right now that I have been a supporter of the market economy and that I have long felt confused and misled about the Lihula monument. Perhaps this public confession helps to prevent the chief socialist having me struck off the voter list.

But we were supposed to be talking about the state budget bill. I must admit, the Michal government even managed to surprise me with it: I wouldn't have thought it would «Kaja-Kallas-ize» so quickly. Not only does Kaja's innovative approach of «taxing the Estonian people into prosperity» continue, it has been further bolstered with the introduction of new taxes. The economic upturn was supposed to be here by now, but waiting for it is already reminiscent of the cult play «Waiting for Godot.» If it's not here by New Year's Eve, then it will certainly delight the people in the new year, the prime minister assures. When the economy is driven completely to the bottom with new and new taxes, then at some point it will start to grow anyway, regardless of whether the prime minister's name is Kallas, Michal, or Läänemets. It's already being said that Michal is a minister in Läänemets' government.

This also explains why the government has not got anywhere with its «wild cuts» – because the Social Democrats won't allow it. Veteran Reform Party member Rein Lang has acknowledged that there has been virtually no reduction in the state apparatus, and suggested that they are probably waiting for some higher power to intervene. Instead, new giant projects are being attempted, while engaging in smoke and mirrors by spending reserves or covering the deficit on an ongoing basis. Although the Michal government vowed not to delay decisions any further, it has done just that. Probably this is why, despite promises to make the budget comprehensible to the public and decision-makers, the budget remains as it is. Manipulation and lying continue, augmented with innovative methods: for instance, the young chief economic Reformist was quick to snatch the report of the Institute of Economic Research, which contained some uncomfortable truths, off the table and tried to hide it away, but then the «evil» press intervened.

True, Ligi is otherwise a man of substance, until he remembers that he is, after all, not just the smartest man in Estonia or the world, but the smartest man in the universe, the real director of the universe.

The new government's arrogance and inability to take any advice, however neutral, is on a par with the previous government. The colorful personality of Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi has made a major contribution to this. True, Ligi is otherwise a man of substance, until he remembers that he is, after all, not just the smartest man in Estonia or the world, but the smartest man in the universe, the real director of the universe. The president, the chancellor of justice, the auditor general, not to mention other nonentities, know nothing, but Ligi does. He is Estonia's secret weapon.

However, I was particularly disappointed when trying to understand the national defense portion of the budget bill. The pledges and announcements had indeed been grandiose, the highest percentages in Europe and all. I truly believed that now the acquisition of munitions would be moved into a higher gear, especially since a separate defense tax was established with great fanfare for this purpose. At one point, I even started to think that perhaps the budget was unreadable so that Russia would not understand our deterrence status and thus feel particularly deterred. Unfortunately, this is probably not the case, and this budget bill is rather intended to deter our own people. The truth is, unfortunately, sadder.

Not only will only part of the national defense tax be used to buy munitions, almost half of these munitions will not be bought at all during the term of this government. This is a particular outrage, because the defense tax intended for their purchase will expire. Thus, the government that will be formed after the next elections will inherit the obligation to acquire the munitions stockpiles that Estonia needs, but the tax will have been canceled.

With the transition to so-called comprehensive national defense, anything can be counted under national defense, starting with the interior minister's red tie and ending with his crusade against the nuns of Kuremäe.

For the time being, the barrels of artillery guns have to be filled with Michal's promises and Pevkur's speeches to deter the enemy. And we must pray to higher powers that Russia will reform – apparently, they have miracle-working conjurers in the government for this. Whether the rest of the money will be spent on national defense is not known. Calculations by The Right indicate that not. The government has categorically denied this, without specifically showing where the The Right are wrong with their calculations. Or is it hoped that this way the next government will have to make the restored corporate income tax permanent? It must also be admitted that with the transition to so-called comprehensive national defense, anything can be counted under national defense, starting with the interior minister's red tie and ending with his crusade against the nuns of Kuremäe.

When resigning in protest at indecision on the issue of national defense, Secretary General Kusti Salm drew parallels with 1939. He was criticized for this later, because after all we are in a fundamentally different situation now. However, there still are some things that sound familiar. Like the belligerent speeches, capable of riddling any opponent, which, alas, were accompanied by a «slow haste» to obtain newer armaments. Or the unwillingness of those in power to listen to anyone's advice or warnings.

Viktor Obet has left us a memoir of a 1939 meeting of the Estonian Students' Society after the so-called treaty of bases, where the government's decision to let the Red Army in without resistance was criticized. In justifying the government's decision, the alumnus and prime minister Kaarel Eenpalu said that it was best for everyone in the end and that the government knew what it was doing. He concluded the meeting with the proclamation, «We are in charge, the responsibility is with us!»

The leaders of national defense are not argued with; they are loudly agreed with, but nothing will change, and the proposals arising from threat assessments are simply ignored.

These parallels are all the more worrying because in the field of national defense, too, there seems to be a sort of spirit in the current government as well that we actually know better. The leaders of national defense are not argued with; they are loudly agreed with, but nothing will change, and the proposals arising from threat assessments are simply ignored. And this has been going on for years. This kind of "slow haste" can create the impression that once again, it is hoped that perhaps things will pass or perhaps someone will help. According to Rein Lang, part of the government seems to be hoping for the intervention of a higher power.

In itself it is understandable that some of the people who at least partly acknowledge the concerns raised are pinning their hopes on the Michal government, against the backdrop of the horror that preceded it. Because hope is the last to die. After all, it would be nice to believe that tax increases will lead to a rapid upsurge of the economy and that the necessary cuts will be made, that the budget will be made transparent, that the national defense tax will end with this government, that the munitions will be procured, and that, in the end, Estonia will be firmly protected under the hand of the Reform Party. Unfortunately, I can no longer do that. Well, I just can't. And judging by the latest public opinion polls, most people in Estonia lost this belief before it ever arose.

I know from my own experience that the prime minister's seat does not have to bring either popularity or trust. However, even when trust in the prime minister is not high, there has mostly been trust in the direction in which he or she is leading Estonia. Unfortunately, neither is trusted now. Such distrust erodes the very foundations of the state. That this is not uninformed criticism by an outsider is demonstrated by the worried words of a person who knows the Reform Party inside and out, which we should take seriously at least. For who else should know the Reform Party better than its founding member and multiple time minister, Rein Lang, who said about a week ago: «In fact, citizens should be even more concerned than in previous years. If our freely elected people are unable to take unpleasant but essential decisions in a situation where there is a war on our doorstep and our neighbor is becoming increasingly nasty, this inevitably raises doubts about the ability to lead in a real crisis.»

And that would no longer be funny at all.