EERIK-NIILES KROSS ⟩ Georgia’s worst-case scenario to rob Europe of another ally

Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the political party Georgian Dream. Photo: VANO SHLAMOV/AFP

• There have been signs to predict an attempt to take over the state by the pro-Moscow regime.
• There have been reports that Russia has sent thugs to suppress protests to Georgia.
• Neither Estonia nor Europe should recognize a victory declared through election theft.

Europe is once again losing an allied country, even though Georgia has been drifting away from the path of the free world for some time now, writes Estonian MP Eerik-Niiles Kross (Reform Party) ahead of the Georgian elections.

Although Georgia's EU accession process is frozen – with Bidzina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream steering the country in an autocratic direction – there is still a vocal pro-European opposition, proud demonstrations are being held, and some independent media has remained. However, ahead of the parliamentary elections this Saturday, enough signs have accumulated to predict an attempt to take over the state by the pro-Moscow regime with the help of the Kremlin and Russian special services.

Georgian Dream's election campaign has been explicitly anti-EU

Delfi recently published an interview with investigative journalist Christo Grozev, who monitors the activities of Russian intelligence. Grozev revealed some details of what is happening. He claims to have seen messages from Russian intelligence to the Georgian ruling party from spring 2024, indicating that the Russians did not believe the government party would win the election and proposed drastic measures. The so-called foreign agent law, unexpectedly reintroduced by Georgian Dream to parliament in the spring, fits well into this context. This law was pushed through despite earlier promises to Brussels and criticism from the Venice Commission.

Georgian Dream, led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, has announced that their goal is to secure an absolute majority in the elections, gain the votes needed in parliament to amend the constitution, and, as a first step after the election victory, criminalize the opposition.

Georgian Dream's election campaign has been directly against the European Union – choose the European path, you get war; choose friendship with Russia, you get peace. In recent months, unknown individuals have systematically beaten or harassed opposition politicians and campaign activists. No crime has been detected. Even the burglars who ransacked the apartment of an opposition figure living in the same building as the prime minister were not found, as allegedly no security cameras were functioning during the burglary. For months, civil society organizations in Georgia have also been harassed, labeled as foreign agents, and removed from lists of election observers. For instance, yesterday [Thursday – ed.] morning, the Investigative Service of Georgia’s Ministry of Finance searched the homes of Atlantic Council employees, the office of the US company Concentrix in Tbilisi, and the apartments of several activists.

Georgian Dream, led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, has announced that their goal is to secure an absolute majority in the elections, gain the votes needed in parliament to amend the constitution, and, as a first step after the election victory, criminalize the opposition. Meanwhile, the ruling party's popularity is not higher than 35% according to all polls. Recently, the government has gone so far as to blame Georgia, specifically the then leadership, for Russia's aggression against the country in 2008.

Russia's grip on Georgia

Various sources in Tbilisi report that Russian intelligence has sent operatives and so-called «titushki» (thugs used to suppress protests) to the country. Among those who have arrived are officers from the same GRU unit that conducted the attempted coup in Montenegro. It is

expected that force will be used to suppress the likely protests following the elections, repeating the tactics used in Belarus and by [Ukraine’s former president Viktor – ed.] Yanukovych.

Bloomberg published a detailed overview a few days ago of a massive Russian cyber operation against Georgia. According to Bloomberg, Russian military intelligence has infiltrated the servers of Georgian government agencies, strategic infrastructure, and the election commission, monitoring them in real-time for years and still retaining some control over virtually all of Georgia's key communications. The Russians are likely capable of disabling the country's communications, energy systems, and crippling government agencies. The election commission also appears to be under their control. The Georgian authorities deny the seriousness of the attacks.

Meanwhile, for months, the Georgian government has been spreading the message that when it comes to electronic voting machines, the government knows how people vote, and a «wrong choice» will have «consequences». Cybersecurity experts say this in itself is false.

The Russians are likely capable of disabling the country's communications, energy systems, and crippling government agencies. The election commission also appears to be under their control.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia, Sergei Naryshkin, recently claimed that the US is preparing election fraud in Georgia. He said that the OSCE election observation body ODIHR has received an order from the US State Department to produce a report stating that the conditions for free elections in Georgia are not being met. However, Naryshkin expressed confidence that the Georgian people would make the right choice. He has previously promised that Russia would protect Georgia from a US-instigated color revolution.

What if the worst-case scenario unfolds?

All major European institutions have election observers in Georgia, but of course, they cannot prevent a takeover of the state through massive election fraud. Let us hope they will at least describe what is happening without embellishment. However, observers do not see into the election commission's servers and GRU offices.

What should Europe do if the described worst-case scenario unfolds in the coming days? It is worrying that despite the criticality of the situation, Western attention to Georgia is almost non-existent. It seems as if the free world has already given up in advance.

Estonia's position if the worst-case scenario comes true, as it did in Belarus, should be the same as it was in the case of Lukashenko's election takeover. Neither Estonia nor Europe should recognize a victory declared through election theft!