ANDREY KUZICHKIN ⟩ China's economic infiltration into Russia is extensive

Chinese President Xi Jinping is attempting to impose various agreements on Russia. Photo: Carlos Barria Photo: Carlos Barria

• For China's vast economy, the Kremlin's praised "Russian economic might" is insignificant.
• In the Russian Far East, ethnic Chinese organized crime has become active.
• Beijing is interested in weakening Putin's regime as much as possible to later reap the benefits.

The ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions have forced Putin to offer China maximum preferential treatment to save Russia's economy. As a result, experts are discussing the possibility that China might colonize the Russian Far East and Siberia. I have visited China seven times, including with official delegations, and I want to share my observations and opinions, Andrey Kuzichkin, expert on Russia, writes.

In 1860, a treaty between Russia and China was signed in Beijing, which essentially made the Celestial Empire a vassal of the Russian czar. Since then, much water has flowed down the Yellow River (Huanghe), and the history of China-Russia relations has gone through many turns. Stalin helped the Chinese communists come to power in 1949. Nikita Khrushchev considered the Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong his best friend and gave him the Soviet naval base of Port Arthur and the city of Dalny (now Dalian in Liaoning province).

However, when Mao asked his Soviet friend to also give China the atomic bomb and Khrushchev refused, relations between Beijing and Moscow sharply deteriorated. The USSR and China became bitter enemies. The peak of this hostility was a military conflict on Damansky Island on the Ussuri River in 1969, where dozens of Soviet and Chinese soldiers were killed. The relationship between the USSR and China only began to recover after Mao's death.

Russia's turn to the East occurred in 2014, following the annexation of Crimea and the imposition of Western sanctions on Putin's regime: China became an important economic partner for Moscow. After Putin started the war in Ukraine, Beijing assumed the role of protector and savior of Putin's regime. Russia became China's vassal. Such are the paradoxes of history

The lights and shadows of China-Russia economic relations

According to official statistics, trade between China and Russia skyrocketed until 2024. In 2023, Russian companies' imports of Chinese goods increased by 78 percent. China filled the segments of the Russian market that were previously occupied by Western companies, supplying cars, construction and road-building equipment, spare parts, tools, electronics, and household appliances.

In two years of war, China's share of Russian foreign trade nearly doubled, reaching 33 percent. Almost half of Russia's crude oil and coal exports went to China, and 90 percent of transactions were settled in yuan. However, Russia’s share of China’s foreign trade increased only slightly, from 2.5 percent to 4 percent.

For China's giant economy, the Kremlin's vaunted "Russian economic might" is insignificant, like a frog to a dragon. Moreover, new US sanctions on banks serving Russian accounts have forced China to scale back cooperation with Russia. In 2024, the growth in Moscow-Beijing trade was replaced by a 5–10 percent decline in several market segments.

However, there is reason to believe that China's economic infiltration into Russia is broader and deeper, though obscured from view. Nearly 90 percent of China's investments in the Russian economy are made through offshore companies in the Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands. Chinese companies are illegally logging billions of cubic meters of forest in Siberia and the Far East, and engaging in the smuggling of gold, diamonds, and precious fish. In the past, Russian law enforcement fought against this, but now they turn a blind eye, as they are funded by Chinese companies.

Recently, in Moscow, a criminal case was heard involving a Russian Defense Ministry official who, among other things, gave unlawful approvals to Chinese companies to log forests on military lands from Moscow to Vladivostok. In recent years, China-Russia relations in Russia have increasingly involved criminal activities.

For the past 20 years, the Chinese government has been pursuing a strategy aimed at promoting Chinese civilization within Russian cultural and spiritual life.

Ethnic Chinese organized crime, represented by "triads," has become active in Russia's Far East, working in alliance with Russian criminal organizations. According to American researchers, branches of well-known Chinese triads like Big Circle, 14K, Red Sun, and Sun Yee On are now actively operating on Russian territory. The Chinese are extracting strategic raw materials from Russia that their Russian "colleagues" steal from companies.

From Primorye, ginseng, Amur tiger skins, bear paws, and bile are illegally transported to China. Another major area of activity for the Chinese mafia is extortion from Chinese businessmen working in Russia, founding shadow financial structures and even banks, and opening underground casinos. A profitable line of illegal exports is the supply of "live cargo" to China. According to experts, up to 15,000 Russian girls are trafficked to China each year for sex work.

During the day, Beijing appears as the model capital city of a communist state. But at night, the mafia reigns. At every market, you can find "fur salons" offering affordable coats and Russian "Natashas." If the legal trade turnover between China and Russia was 240 billion dollars in 2023, the shadow economy turnover of China in Russia is estimated at 70–100 billion dollars.

"The Russian world," Chinese-style

Russian society is known for its xenophobia, and Russia's growing economic dependence on China carries the risk of increased anti-Chinese sentiments. Thus, for the past 20 years, the Chinese government has implemented a strategy to promote Chinese civilization within Russian culture and spiritual life. Beijing employs various tools for this purpose.

First, there is the popularization of the Chinese language. About 20 Confucius Institutes operate at Russian universities, teaching the Chinese language and the basics of Chinese philosophy and culture. The closer to China, the greater the influence. For example, in the border town of Blagoveshchensk, with a population of 240,000, 60 training centers offer Chinese language lessons. Chinese is also taught in kindergartens, and since last year, it has been taught in Blagoveshchensk municipal schools starting from the first grade. The same situation exists in Khabarovsk and Vladivostok near the Chinese border.

Second, Chinese narratives are disseminated in Russian. This is done through Russian-language versions of Chinese news agencies like The People's Daily and Xinhua and the 24-hour Russian-language TV channel CGTN. A magazine called China is published in Russian for distribution in Russia, along with numerous advertising and informational brochures about China.

Third, the number of Chinese students in Russia increases every year. In 2024, there were over 50,000 Chinese students in Russia, while 16,000 Russian students were studying at Chinese universities. Russian-Chinese educational forums have become routine.

Fourth, tourism and cultural exchange between China and Russia continue to grow. In 2024, the number of Russians visiting China for tourism and Chinese visiting Russia nearly doubled, exceeding 300,000 people from each side. Chinese and Russian filmmakers are collaborating on new movies.

Recently, the leading Russian entertainment channel TNT launched a season dedicated to China as part of the "Challenge" project, a competition show featuring Russian-Chinese teams. Learning Chinese cuisine is common in Russian vocational schools. Vladivostok alone has over 70 cafes and restaurants offering Chinese cuisine. Chinese product sections are opening in shopping centers across Russia.

Finally, there is demographic expansion, as Chinese people living in the Far East legalize their status by marrying Russian women and having many children. Experts estimate that such mixed families include up to one million members. This is Beijing's "soft power." But there is also "hard power" when joint Chinese-Russian land and naval exercises are conducted. China's expansion in every direction within Russia is an undeniable fact, though I doubt it will lead to the annexation of Russia or part of its territory by China.

Having interacted with the Chinese, I can confirm that they are intelligent, remarkably hardworking, talented, and always have a good appetite—and they are also very cunning.

Chinese policy is a path of endless cunning, according to Sun Tzu, a Chinese strategist from the 6th century BC. And having interacted with the Chinese, I can confirm that they are intelligent, remarkably hardworking, talented, and always have a good appetite—and they are also very cunning. For now, Beijing is satisfied with Russia's vassal status, extracting resources cheaply and selling its goods at a high price. China has been the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine, and although the key to peace lies in Xi Jinping's hands, he is in no rush to use it. Beijing is interested in weakening Putin's regime as much as possible so that later it can impose agreements on him that would solidify China's control over Russia's Far East and Siberia.

Europe and the United States may not like China's growing influence, but the West cannot protect Ukraine, let alone Siberia. Still, it is not in Beijing's interest to incorporate these territories into China.

First, maintaining the vast, sparsely populated northern territories would be costly. Rivers separate China from the Far East, and only three major bridges connect the two across thousands of kilometers of border. The border region of Heilongjiang, due to its cold climate, is one of China's least densely populated provinces. Thus, few Chinese are willing to move north to settle in Siberia.

Second, decisions about appointing governors, mayors, and security officials in Russia's Far Eastern cities have long been coordinated with Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang province and the unofficial capital of Russia's Far Eastern Federal District. Bloggers in Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, and Blagoveshchensk have been writing about this for some time.

And thirdly, the Chinese know how to wait patiently: they waited 160 years for Russia to become their vassal. Another hundred years from now, the Chinese in Siberia and the Far East might have forgotten that their Russian ancestors once lived here, and Peking duck might replace Siberian dumplings as the national dish...