Kert Valdaru ⟩ Importing foreigners into Estonian prisons will lead to unsolvable problems

Viru Prison. – Photo: Marianne Loorents Photo: Marianne Loorents

• We need clarity as to who exactly would be brought into Estonian prisons.
• Estonia must not become Rwanda for criminals!
• We need to be fairly compensated and also take into account unforeseen developments.

The good news is that there are few inmates in our prisons. The bad news, however, is that the government no longer has enough money to maintain our current well-being. The Ministry of Justice has a solution to propose – to import prisoners from other countries into Estonia and ask foreign partners for money for it. Yet no amount of money can make up for the potentially dangerous consequences if the risks materialize. There are at least five major risks, according to migration expert Kert Valdaru (Reform Party).

First of all, I commend the authors of the idea. In Estonia, the approach to finding money most often tends to be limited to cutting subsidies for children and families. The idea from the Ministry of Justice, however, entails freshness, courage, and innovation. An idea that wouldn't take money away from anyone in Estonia but would bring in more.

That said, here comes the "BUT" – the risks of bringing in prisoners from other countries need to be thoroughly considered beforehand. Estonia must not put itself in a position where foreign partners sell us their unsolvable problems for money.

Risk number one. Islamization of Estonian prisons

We need clarity as to who exactly would be brought into Estonian prisons. We don't know that yet. We know that the Ministry of Justice thinks they could preferably be brought from NATO countries. More important than the country, however, is who is planned to be brought here – will they be nationals of the NATO country in question or criminally convicted immigrants? The minister of justice and digital affairs has mentioned countries such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Sweden.

What characterizes these three countries – like many other NATO countries – is that the proportion of immigrants in their prisons is higher than in society as a whole. In the Netherlands and Sweden, people from Africa and the Middle East in particular are overrepresented in prisons when it comes to some types of crime, such as crimes against property and violent crimes.

/.../ higher proportion of Muslim inmates influences also other prisoners to convert to Islam, and in the worst cases, to its more radical and violent forms.

In 2023, Albanians were in the spotlight in the UK. Albanians made up about 10 percent of all foreign nationals in UK prisons in 2020, and this proportion increased to 14 percent by 2022. Although Albanians account for less than 0.05 percent of the UK population, they make up 1.6 percent of all prisoners, serving convictions for various crimes – including murder, violence, weapons-related crimes, and drug production.

Albanians and immigrants from the Middle East and parts of Africa alike tend to share a common characteristic: many of them are Muslim. There is a rapid process of Islamization occurring in prisons in the West – the higher proportion of Muslim inmates influences also other prisoners to convert to Islam, and in the worst cases, to its more radical and violent forms. Imported prisoners could potentially bring this process to Estonia.

Risk number two. Estonia becomes Rwanda for criminals

If the countries sending prisoners decide to start sending immigrant prisoners to Estonia, then we will become a Rwanda for criminals. The UK had a controversial plan to start sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. This provoked great opposition from organizations dealing with refugees and human rights organizations. Although millions were paid to Rwanda in advance, no migrants were resettled in Rwanda. The government changed, and the new government canceled the plan.

Unlike Rwanda, we would not be getting asylum seekers, but criminally convicted immigrants. It is too optimistic to expect it to be possible to completely restrict their contacts with the outside world and that they will not make contact with their tribes and clans from the criminal world. It is also common knowledge that it is very difficult to return a foreigner to their home country. Unless, of course, it becomes part of the deal to send them back to the NATO country where the prisoner came from. EU member states manage to deport less than half of the cases.

And if an immigrant inmate is able to stay in Estonia after their release, it is to be hoped that the Estonian prison system has been able to put the person on the law-abiding path. But there will always be a second option – that they will continue their criminal life, as a result of which our crime will become more multicultural.

Immigrant inmates from the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands definitely have experience of living and being active in high-crime areas, where the monopoly of power belongs to some gang rather than the police. It is to be hoped that we ourselves will not sow seeds for the emergence of such areas here in the future. It is safer to live in Estonia today than in many other countries of Old Europe. It should stay that way too.

We have around 1,000 vacant inmate places, while countries like the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden face shortages. This serves as a warning example of what might happen if we open our borders too widely to immigrants with the wrong skills – our prisons will become overcrowded.

The experience of Old Europe makes it clear that when specific sorts of people begin to concentrate in one place, it tends to attract others with similar characteristics. By allowing a situation where potentially Islamized Western prisoners remain in Estonia after their release, we could attract other Islamized individuals who may not have the best intentions. This possibility must be prevented.

Risk number three. Estonia becomes a destination country for immigration

If Estonia decides to ignore the mistakes of Old Europe and blindly accepts new immigrants under the guise of a policy of import of skilled labor, it will lead to the same problems that partner countries are facing now. As we all know, allowing immigration for no purpose will, in time, lead to an increase in crime and a shortage of prison places.

Our society is now facing a debate on whether and how many foreigners from third countries should be allowed to come to Estonia to support the labor market. It is clear that there are labor shortages in some sectors and more employees are needed. But this needs to be done in a balanced and considered way – by deciding about people with which skills and from which countries should be hired.

It would be useful if someone finally articulated exactly which skills are lacking in Estonia and in what quantities. Currently, there is only general talk about the need for skilled labor. By the way, there was a time in Estonia when the prisons were full of "skilled workers" directed here by the Soviet regime over many years.

At present, we have around 1,000 vacant inmate places, while countries like the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden face shortages. This serves as a warning example of what might happen if we open our borders too widely to immigrants with the wrong skills – our prisons will become overcrowded. We'll see which path we choose. If we run out of space in our prisons, perhaps in the future we'll be looking for our own Rwanda to export our problems to?

Risk number four. Lack of reserves for unforeseen developments

When the economy's not doing well, people's well-being declines. For some, it declines to the point where life turns criminal. Crime will increase, and prisons will get more crowded. We don't know how bad life in Estonia will get before it starts improving again.

Likewise, it's unclear what the consequences would be if Russia decided to launch a large-scale migration attack on Estonia or if, for some other reason, there is a sudden massive inflow of migrants. If large numbers of immigrants arrive in Estonia simultaneously, it may become necessary to consider using prisons for accommodation. This has been done in the Netherlands. When crime decreased and prisons were closed, the need arose to house immigrants and asylum seekers. Empty prisons were repurposed as accommodation centers to manage migration-related problems. This could be one reason why the Netherlands is now experiencing a shortage of prison places.

In Estonia, it is hoped to receive 30 million euros for the accommodation of 250-500 prisoners. This money would certainly help in difficult times, but is it also worth all the risks?

In addition, it's important to keep in mind the debate on the criminalization of public expressions of hate. There is a possibility that public incitement to hatred, violence or discrimination on grounds of nationality, race, color, sex, disability, language, origin, religion, sexual orientation, political opinion or property and social status will soon be punishable.

Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote in his novel "The Idiot" through the character Rogozhin that just a few words are enough for a person to be convicted. It seems that in the future, even a single wrongly spoken word to the wrong recipient could suffice. If the law becomes so broad, then those who incite hatred against middle-aged white men, like Uncle Heino [simpleton character from an Estonian TV comedy show – ed.] , should also be punished. Perhaps it would be wise to reserve at least 50 places in the soon-to-be-empty Tartu prison in advance?

Risk number five. Costs are higher than revenues

According to the current plan, there is a high risk that Estonia is planning to ask for too little money to carry out the project. In Estonia, it is hoped to receive 30 million euros for the accommodation of 250-500 prisoners. This money would certainly help in difficult times, but is it also worth all the risks?

The UK, for example, was prepared to pay Rwanda significantly higher sums for the reception of asylum seekers. Although no refugees were sent to Rwanda, at least 278 million euros was paid in advance. The UK was prepared to pay Rwanda at least 429 million euros in development aid during the first five years, plus 139 million euros after the relocation of 300 people. And that wasn't all – they were also prepared to pay up to 198,360 euros for each relocated person as part of an integration package.

Rwanda announced that it would be ready to accept 1,000 asylum seekers within a five-year trial period.

African countries know how to ask for money – there's definitely something to learn from that. If one is reluctant to learn from Africans, it's worth recalling a piece of golden advice from a respected Estonian figure, which has greatly helped me in my work: "You should ask for so much that it's embarrassing for yourself too."

If the associated risks can be managed, the idea has potential

It is safe to live in Estonia today. We have managed to transform from a high-crime country into a low-crime country. The areas that we were previously advised against going to have disappeared. At the same time, in several countries of Old Europe crime has increased, the sense of security has decreased, and criminal areas have emerged.

Although bringing criminals to Estonia might bring us millions, it comes with risks that could ultimately be even more costly and lead to unsolvable problems. If the associated risks can be managed, the idea of bringing inmates from other countries has potential. Otherwise, the question we must ask ourselves is: how large would the amount need to be for Estonian society to be willing to endure the consequences of a failed import of prisoners? I tend to believe that no such amount exists.