Tamila Bursova ⟩ What we can learn from Russia's attacks on Ukraine's power grid

Before the war, nuclear energy provided more than half of Ukraine's electricity. Photo: ROMAN PILIPEY / AFP / GETTY IMAGES

• I receive every report about an attack against a thermal power plant of ours with great pain
• We must adapt our lives to the new conditions, because the aggressive neighbor is not going anywhere
• Ukrainians and Estonians are similar in their ability to adapt and desire to protect their land

Russia is systematically destroying Ukraine's energy system. The winter of 2022-2023 was difficult, but this year's situation seems extremely unpredictable, writes Tamila Bursova, deputy director of the Ackermann communications agency.

Russia is systematically destroying the capacity of Ukraine's transmission network

While last year the enemy hit the main substations, this year Russia is destroying the transmission capacity of Ukraine. Transmission capacities are those that can rapidly increase and decrease electricity production, balancing the energy system during peak hours of electricity consumption. For example, in the morning and evening, when people go to work or return home from work to start household chores.

In Ukraine, transmission-capable generating capacities are hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants. The share of the latter in the entire country's electricity production used to be about 30 percent, but due to the attacks, it has decreased to 5 percent. According to the latest data, the company where I used to work [energy industry company DTEK – ed.] has lost 90 percent of its production capacity. It has been destroyed by an insane amount of rockets. Thermal power plants have been attacked more than 180 times. I receive every report about an attack against a thermal power plant of ours with great pain, because I have been to each of them and I know the people who work there, who, despite the danger, conscientiously return to their post time and again. They are true warriors of light!

Lost capacities – what did the summer blackouts tell us?

How serious the problem is is shown by the fact that we already have stabilizing power outages in the summer. This means that, according to the plan, the power is turned off for a few hours, or vice versa – according to the schedule, it is turned on only for a few hours per day.

This is done because there is not enough capacity in the energy system: in the summer, the capacity units of nuclear power plants and the surviving units of thermal power plants need scheduled repairs, but high temperatures in turn lead to an increase in consumption. In summer, solar and wind power plants partially solve the problem, but in winter, the situation is even more complicated, because there is not enough sunlight, thermal power plants have been destroyed, and nuclear power plants cannot maneuver with energy to a sufficient extent. In addition, cities where thermal power plants are built are left without heat suppliers.

Restoration of thermal power plants, dispersion of production or energy autonomy?

Ukraine faces the thorny question of how to resolve the situation. We are absolutely capable of fending off Russia's energy blockade. To this end, in my opinion, the problem must be solved in a complex way: restore destroyed capacities, build dispersed production and stimulate the energy autonomy of regions, residential complexes and private households. I'll explain why.

Despite the risk of new attacks on large thermal power plants, there are many benefits to restoring them. This will help to quickly restore the stability and reliability of the energy supply if the appropriate components (with which there are difficulties) are available, because they are already integrated into the existing infrastructure.

Dispersion of production is less vulnerable to attack because the enemy will simply get tired of destroying small thermal power plants.

At the same time, it is necessary to invest in anti-aircraft and radio-electronic warfare (REB) systems. After all, there is no guarantee that the rebuilt energy units will not be destroyed again immediately after construction and that the investment will not disappear like from a leaking bucket. At present, conventional air defense systems are no longer enough, not to mention anti-ballistic missile defense equipment – it is not possible to place the Patriot missile defense systems at every thermal power plant, because there are simply too few of them in Ukraine.

Therefore, it is necessary to establish dispersed production in parallel with the restoration of large thermal power plants – say, for example, 1,000 small thermal power plants secure one large one. This dispersion of production is less vulnerable to attack because the enemy will simply get tired of destroying small thermal power plants.

Distributed generation responds quicker to changes in electricity demand, especially during peak loads. This means that the energy system works stably, despite unpredictable situations that may accompany the constant threat of new attacks.

How Ukrainians secure electricity for themselves in wartime conditions

Thirdly, people understand their responsibility for personal energy autonomy. The state should take care of everyone, but this is not possible, especially in the conditions of war. Therefore, we have already learned well to be autonomous.

Housing developers in Ukraine, as in all other independent countries that share a border with Russia, should definitely already include this factor in their mandatory minimum. The same with shelters.

People are buying generators for home use, installing solar panels, purchasing inverters, charging stations and energy storage. Apartment associations, in turn, are installing generators to power elevators and boiler houses. The topic of energy autonomy of individual city districts, residential complexes or buildings is very relevant. Housing developers in Ukraine, as in all other independent countries that share a border with Russia, should definitely already include this factor in their mandatory minimum. The same with shelters. We all have to adapt our usual processes to the new conditions, because the aggressive neighbor is not going anywhere.

Who pays for the restoration of what was destroyed? Guarantees for investors, electricity tariffs and reality

The next question concerns the resources to restore the power systems. I am not an expert in the operation of the power system, so subjectively one of the most difficult questions for me is who should finance the restoration of the destroyed power systems.

Should it be the state? The state has very limited resources in times of war, because the main thing is to ensure the functioning of the army that protects us. International donors or the private sector? At this point, the question is whether the country is ready to create such an investment climate, in which both international and domestic investors are convinced that their rights to property and investment profitability are protected both formally and in reality. The lack of appropriate guarantees for the protection of private property rights and the return on investment leads to the fact that investors lack confidence in the state. They may be deterred by the threat of losing their resources due to war or illegal confiscation of property. Until then, this remains a big problem.

Another source of income for restoring the stability of the energy system is electricity tariffs. In Ukraine, we pay more for electricity from June 1. The government justified the increase in electricity tariffs with the need to cover the damages caused by the war and restore the energy infrastructure. Upon hearing about this, my first thought was: «Great! Our thermal power plants will get the resources to restore what was destroyed and build more!» Because allocating funds specifically for the restoration of balancing capacities and energy infrastructure is a completely logical priority. However, the reality turned out to be much more complicated.

Is it really necessary now to spend colossal sums on the construction of new nuclear power plants, which is both expensive and time-consuming?

I became interested in what the money from the increase in tariffs is actually planned to be used for. According to calculations, we as consumers as a whole pay approximately 65 billion hryvnias (about 1.5 billion euros) more per year. According to energy market sources, 30 percent of this goes to the company «Ukrhydroenergo», which is justified, because the destroyed main grids and power substations indeed need to be restored. But the remaining 70 percent goes to... «Energoatom», because whoever produces more gets more. And at this point, it remains unclear how exactly these funds are intended to be used to restore the destroyed energy sector. Based on the statements by «Energoatom», they will use these funds both to complete the unfinished energy blocks and to build new ones. Market experts claim that other types of production get nothing from the increase in tariffs.

Is it really necessary now to spend colossal sums on the construction of new nuclear power plants, which is both expensive and time-consuming? Perhaps it would be more appropriate to redistribute these amounts to build low-capacity dispersed production? Because cold weather will arrive soon and it will be difficult to balance the energy consumption peaks.

In the meantime, in the event of power outages, girls and women wheel out generators from pharmacies and restaurants, polyclinics and beauty salons, and start them up. They are wearing white coats or corporate shirts, heels or sneakers. They push buttons and pull cables to start the generator. The smell of fresh coffee and gasoline mingle with each other. But you know what? This is what the resistance of Ukrainians against the Russian invasion and energy blockade looks like. Ukrainians and Estonians are very similar in terms of their ability to adapt to difficult circumstances and their desire to protect their land