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The war of attrition in Ukraine has reached its final phase, and efforts are being made to find peace through mediation by third-party countries, observer Raivo Vare writes.
It is often said that the night is darkest before dawn. I fear that this saying applies not only to natural phenomena but also to human society. Increasingly, it feels like this is what is happening with the war in Ukraine. Recent information suggests that the war has reached a stalemate in its attrition phase, preparations for negotiations are underway, and there is concern about the West's continued support for Ukraine.
Although we like to comfort ourselves with the unexpected success of the Ukrainians in repelling Russia's invasion and fighting a new Battle of Kursk, as well as their remarkable resilience in defending their positions, particularly in Donbas, where they have ceded surprisingly little territory to the massive Russian assaults, the reality is more complex. It is impossible to cover all the details in a short commentary, but the main points have already become clear.
The war has fully entered the attrition phase. This is evident from Russia's repeated, barbaric attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and its population, a strategy the aggressor openly acknowledges. They proclaim loudly that their aim is to test the resilience of the Ukrainian people and state, attempting to wear them down. Coupled with this is a hope that war fatigue will affect not only Ukraine but also the Western nations supporting it. This could allow the Kremlin to secure a favorable ceasefire, giving Russia time to recover and prepare for another offensive. By now, there should be no doubt that Vladimir Putin's goal is not limited to the increasingly repeated demand for the recognition of Crimea as belonging to Moscow, the annexation of additional territory within the administrative borders of Donbas, and the subjugation of Ukraine's political choices to the Kremlin. This also includes the lifting of sanctions and, essentially, the international recognition of Moscow's special sphere of influence, along with an overt dominance of power politics over the principle of equality in international law. His ultimate goal has been, is, and will remain the complete subjugation of ALL of Ukraine. This is ingrained in the logic of the Russian regime's existence, and even a change in its leadership would not alter this. Unfortunately, this fact is often misunderstood, especially in the West.
The drunken ramblings of Dmitry Medvedev reveal another layer of the conflict: a struggle over Ukraine's vast mineral reserves, valued at 13 trillion dollars. This is not untrue, as Ukraine, a resource-rich nation in an otherwise resource-scarce Europe, has not yet fully exploited many of its reserves, apart from coal, iron ore, titanium, and a few others. A significant portion of these resources, including Europe's largest lithium deposits, lies in eastern Ukraine, where the fighting is concentrated.
The drunken ramblings of Dmitry Medvedev reveal another layer of the conflict: a struggle over Ukraine's vast mineral reserves, valued at 13 trillion dollars.
It is also essential to recognize that Ukraine's chances against an overwhelming enemy, without military or economic support, are slim, to say the least. The country's national debt exceeds its economic output, many industries have been severely impacted by the war, and a significant portion of the population has left. With winter approaching, the situation becomes even more dire due to the strain on the energy supply and public utilities, exacerbated by Russia's genocidal, continuous bombardment. War fatigue is becoming unavoidable.
As if that were not enough, the West has failed to deliver the promised military aid—especially air defense systems—on time. The United States, in particular, continues to prohibit Ukraine from using long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, giving Russia a strategic advantage in the war and worsening Ukraine's position. This was once again evident at the recent Ramstein support meeting.
However, Russia is not in an ideal situation either. While its economy has adapted to wartime production and is currently overheated, the momentum behind these processes is fading. A more detailed analysis would require a separate discussion, but it is worth noting that the Russian central bank has already predicted a sharp economic slowdown for next year, compounded by inflation and difficulties with foreign trade. Hence, Russia will also soon need a breather. Putin hopes that the outcome of the US presidential election will provide one. In the meantime, he continues the war but has increasingly hinted at the possibility of negotiations.
Hints at possible negotiations have come not only from Putin and his inner circle but also from Western leaders. While they avoid explicitly mentioning a Ukrainian victory, they emphasize that Ukraine must not lose this unjustly imposed war. However, they also acknowledge that the war will end in negotiations, leaving it up to Ukraine to decide where and how. Nice, but empty rhetoric.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has increasingly brought up the topic of negotiations in various contexts. Notably, he no longer rules out talking to Putin, though he suggests that intermediaries may be involved. Ukraine has actively promoted its 10-point peace plan internationally, though it gained little traction at the first summit in Switzerland. Acknowledging the need for broader support, particularly from countries in the Global South that have largely remained neutral, Zelensky recently mentioned that Russia should perhaps participate in the second summit planned for November. This would ensure China's involvement, as Beijing declined to participate in the first summit, citing Russia's absence. In today's world, major international decisions can no longer be made without Beijing's input.
Ukraine has also intensified its direct diplomatic efforts with countries in the Global South, seeking mediators who can help strengthen Ukraine's position in negotiations with Russia and in the Global South. Ukraine has reportedly held talks with Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey about hosting the peace summit, and Austria has also expressed interest. However, India seems the most promising candidate for the role of mediator.
Ukraine has also intensified its direct diplomatic efforts with countries in the Global South, seeking mediators who can help strengthen Ukraine's position in negotiations with Russia and in the Global South.
This aligns with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's global ambitions and helps counterbalance China's influence in the Third World. At the same time, India has become Russia's second-largest trade partner after China, giving it considerable leverage over Russia's economy and, consequently, political weight in Moscow's eyes. This may explain Modi's recent meetings with both Putin and Zelenskyy. Russia, realizing the seriousness of the situation, has through Putin proposed that, in addition to India, two more of its anti-Western comrades from BRICS could also act as mediators in the negotiations —namely China and Brazil, led by the ambitious President Lula, who holds a leftist and strongly anti-American stance.
It remains to be seen how far these efforts will go. However, this context should be considered in light of the recent unprecedented joint statement from the heads of two leading Western intelligence agencies—the CIA and MI6. They made it clear that, if necessary, Ukraine will continue to receive support and that Russia will face continued pressure. This statement may also serve as a precautionary message regarding potential political changes in the United States and the United Kingdom. Perhaps there is already some quiet concern...
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