MEELIS OIDSALU ⟩ The Baltic defense renaissance needs a political cover

Meelis Oidsalu, editor of the «Power and Security» section of Fookus. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu

• A new military strategy has been designed under the leadership of Baltic and Polish military.
• Estonian politicians are not up to date with military developments.
• Relationship between the Estonian and Polish military could be established at political level.

This summer's ugly debates between Estonian politicians and defense experts about the feasibility of acquiring long-range munitions showed that the vital military-strategic trends of the region are not perceived at the political level and it is likely that, out of pure ignorance, work is even being done against them, writes editor Meelis Oidsalu.

Gen. Rajmund T. Andrzejczak, the previous commander of the armed forces of Poland, like the previous head of the defense forces of Estonia, Gen. Martin Herem, unexpectedly left his post a few months before the end of his term. Just like Herem, Andrzejczak has remained tight-lipped when clarifying the circumstances of his departure.

In politics, things usually happen with a long delay, and as retired Gen. Andrzejczak politely says, European governments have yet to integrate the new military reality into their political agenda.

Anyone who reads the interview with Andrzejczak will learn that Herem's information campaign this spring to increase long-range firepower so that we can prevent the enemy in an earlier phase, rather than waiting for them to attack us, has actually been maturing for five years and, in the form of certain procurements (HIMARS and anti-ship missiles), is the result of the partially implemented Baltic regional defense renaissance. It is a regional initiative that has also inspired Latvia and Lithuania to acquire long-range firepower.

Proactive defense strategy

Five years ago, the Polish general surprised his colleagues with the idea of «influencing» Russian ships sailing in the Baltic Sea from a distance, to use the polite military slang for bombing ships. Previously, activities were guided by the assumption that the enemy must have already invaded the territory of the self-defending country and done something horrible there, only then can it be «influenced».

Martin Herem's information campaign this spring to increase long-range firepower so that we can prevent the enemy in an earlier phase, rather than waiting for them to attack us, has actually been maturing for five years.

As Gen. Andrzejczak says, he and Herem also objected to the passive plan for the defense of the Suwałki corridor. Why should Russian and Belarusian forces be allowed to assume military positions for capturing Suwałki at all, if their intention to attack becomes sufficiently clear? Otherwise, defending «every inch of NATO» would be out of the question. It is foolish to give up the land first and then start «defending» it. Attacks must be nipped in the bud. It is possible to contain the risk of escalation even with such a proactive approach.

The recent Baltic defense renaissance had two expert architects: Herem and Andrzejczak. But as the retired Polish general says – politicians have not yet acknowledged the changes that have taken place, nor their significance. However, it is not possible to implement any military strategy without political understanding.

Polish tanks heading to the 2024 Kevadtorm (Spring Storm) exercise. Photo: Eesti Kaitsevägi

Military friendship continues

The military friendship between Poland and Estonia has not disappeared with the change of command of the defense forces of our countries, Gen. Wiesław Kukuła, the successor of Gen. Andrzejczak, is fortunately as fond of Estonia as his predecessor. The Poles were present with tanks at this year's Kevadtorm (Spring Storm), while in August there were joint firings of the K9 self-propelled artillery.

At the political and diplomatic level, Estonia has long realized the vital importance of Poland in the context of Baltic defense, and opportunities have been sought to bring Warsaw and Tallinn closer together.

At the political and diplomatic level, Estonia has long realized the vital importance of Poland in the context of Baltic defense, and opportunities have been sought to bring Warsaw and Tallinn closer together, but this has not been very successful. It is likely that neither Polish nor Estonian politicians have sufficiently acknowledged this regional dependence, which prompted the commanders of the defense forces to look for closer contacts already five years ago.

However, this summer's «ammunition debate» showed that Estonian politicians and defense experts live in different information spaces, or the former pretend not to understand what the military is saying for political reasons. It is more likely, however, that the politicians have simply not sufficiently familiarized themselves with the military developments in the region.