VLADIMIR JUSHKIN ⟩ Coup d'état in Russia on stage and in real life

Richard Wagner’s «Lohengrin» in Estonia: Wagner’s music raised you to the ceiling. It held you afloat somewhere underneath the ceiling mural depicting members of the Soviet Army. Photo: Siim Vahur

• After the Russian «Wagner» premiere, Putin began a purge among the generals.
• Putin, like Stalin, fears the army, as the army's popularity is usually higher in a country at war.
• If the reasons for the coup attempt remain, the coup will be repeated.

On February 24, 2022, when the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces was already underway, a spectacular premiere of Richard Wagner's opera «Lohengrin» took place on the stage of the Bolshoi Theater (for the first time since 1936). As we know, one of the characters of the opera, the German king Henry the Fowler (9th-10th century), who united Germany, was one of Hitler's idols, writes Vladimir Jushkin, director of the Baltic Center for Russian Studies.

So, the Russian invasion began with Wagner. But after just a few days, the creators of the play, French director François Girard and American conductor Evan Rogister, ended their participation in the project.

Shortly after that, a domestic play titled «Wagner» premiered in Russia (June 24, 2023), the real script of which we will not know any time soon. In it, the main character Yevgeny Prigozhin said: «Death is our business, and business is good.»

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin (front) with his subordinates. Photo: PRIGOZHIN PRESS SERVICE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

After the Russian «Wagner» premiere, Putin began a purge among the generals. The FSB started making arrests just a few hours after Prigozhin's rebellion began. Arrests among the highest command continue to this day.

The military factor has played and may even now be playing a significant and rather unexpected role in the history of Russia.

In a private chat, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, turned to his subordinates by saying: «I have always been honest, from the first day I joined our military. Therefore, I will tell you honestly: a difficult situation arose with the senior management, where it was necessary either to keep quiet and be a coward or to say it the way it is. And I had no right to lie in the name of you, in the name of my fallen comrades in arms, so I outlined all the problems that currently exist in the army.» After that, Popov was removed from command of the 58th Combined Arms Army.

It seems that there will be more such demarches. And the main question here is who does Putin like the least: is it the ones who rock the boat or the ones who lie to his face and in reports. Depending on the answer, we will either see staff reshuffles and changes in the entire structure of the army, or the old system will continue to rot from within.

Putin, like Stalin, fears the army, as the popularity of the army is usually higher than that of the politicians in a country at war. But he is afraid to simply remove all the generals and replace them with new ones. Comrade Stalin tried to do this before World War II and it was for this reason, among others, that Hitler reached Moscow and Stalingrad.

On the other hand, the generals know very well that the most important moment that led to the fall of the monarchy in Russia in 1917 was not the mass riots in Saint Petersburg (these could have been suppressed if the army had maintained complete loyalty to the throne), but the telegraph survey conducted by chief of staff Gen. Alekseyev. He turned to the front commanders with the question whether they consider Nicholas II's abdication expedient in the current situation. They answered unanimously: yes, they do. The fact that such a poll was held is proof that the army directly intervened in politics during an acute crisis.

Russian Tsar Nicholas II (left) and King George V of the British empire were cousins and descendants of Queen Victoria. King George V gave the British royal house the name Windsor, before it was the German Saxe-Coburg-Gotha. Photo: Rights Managed

The generals are also well aware of the results of the dress rehearsal of a potential military coup d'état. The Prigozhin rebellion represents a very strong precedent for the potential success of the potential organizers of violent attacks against the Putin government. Political scientist and confidant of President Vladimir Putin, Sergei Markov, then wrote: «Yes, now the coup did not succeed. But coups have fundamental reasons. And if the reasons remain, the coup will repeat itself. And it may be successful.»

On the desk of the modern Russian «Gen. Alekseyev» there is already a paper with an assessment of the military coup attempt.

1.Putin and his group lack serious forces to repel an attack involving a large (several thousand people), well-organized and well-armed army formation. Such a formation can move unhindered across the territory of the European part of Russia without encountering serious resistance.

2. Putin and his group cannot count on the active support of the regional and local forces of power agencies and special services (police, National Guard, FSB, Ministry of Emergency Situations) in the event of a military rebellion. In Rostov, where the «Fortress Plan» was in effect for several hours, when the police, SOBR and OMON were all supposed to block the advance, not a single shot was fired to stop the movement of the Wagner convoy.

3. In a moment of danger, the so-called Putin elite rushed to save not Putin, but themselves and their families: business jets took off around the clock. These people – officials and businessmen alike – believed that Prigozhin would enter Moscow and seize power. They believed that Moscow would capitulate and Putin's power would fall.

Putin personally shows weakness and inaccuracy in his reaction to a direct threat to him.

4. The population is not ready to en masse and independently, without coercion, take the side of the current government, to risk life, health and property for its protection. At the same time, the population remains loyal to the current government in words, declaratively, but this loyalty is not expressed in practical actions.

5. Putin personally shows weakness and inaccuracy in his reaction to a direct threat to him. In a crisis situation, he is ready to quickly retreat at the first demand of the other side. At first, he threatens the disobedient with severe persecution and punishment, but all these threats turn out to be empty words and are easily revoked at the first attempt to reach an agreement.

But today, with Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, none of the above, of course, means that the Putin regime is facing a military coup in the near future. On the contrary, the anti-corruption purges in the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense so far show that the Kremlin feels quite secure in its relations with the military. Whether this situation will continue in the future, if the war does not end and the situation on the fronts does not change seriously in favor of the Russian troops, is an open question. A lot depends on whether Putin manages to avoid full-scale mobilization, as he has been lucky to do so far. This would bring war into every home, putting Russian society in a situation close to what it experienced during both world wars.

The military factor has played and may even now be playing a significant and rather unexpected role in the history of Russia. «Gen. Alekseyev» learned from the attempt experience but has not yet sent e-mails to the commanders of the armies and military districts.