Riho Terras ⟩ The consequences of Germany's decision will be severe. Don't be misled by the success of the Kursk operation

Riho Terras Photo: Genevieve Engel / Euroopa Parlament

Germany is halting its aid to Ukraine. While the formal reason given is the debt brake and budget constraints, in actuality it is about political priorities. The sole responsibility for this decision lies with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Social Democrat-led government, writes MEP Riho Terras (Isamaa).

The reality is that Germany has federal reserves of nearly 500 billion euros. Allocating 10 billion or even more for the security of Ukraine (and thereby Germany itself) would not be a problem. The responsibility for this exceptionally poor decision lies with Chancellor Scholz and his government. It's worth noting that the Bundestag elections are due in 2025, and the federal chancellor is prioritizing domestic issues over supporting Ukraine.

The consequences will be serious. Not only Germany's credibility in the eyes of its allies, but also the security of Europe as a whole could be undermined going forward. The Germans have realized this and the federal chancellor is being criticized both by people in the government and the opposition. For example, opposition politician Norbert Röttgen from the CDU has stated that by supporting Ukraine, Germany is also supporting itself.

Despite Ukrainians' masterful performance and the success of the Kursk operation, it's important not to become overly euphoric. Ukraine's situation has clearly deteriorated in recent months, and Russia's gradual progress has given a time advantage to the adversary. This can only be countered with weapons and financial aid, lifting restrictions, and smoother logistics.

Ukraine needs high-quality long-range precision weapons, such as Taurus systems and ATACMS, more air defense assets (Patriot systems), armored vehicles, drones, tools of electronic warfare. And most importantly – munitions. Drone strikes by the Ukrainians against Russian refineries are strategically necessary to weaken the adversary's war economy. One good example is the latest support package from Sweden. Germany, instead of kicking its arms industry into the next gear, is still in debate over some of the topics that were on the agenda more than a year ago. Ukraine is paying for it with human lives and territory.

It's worth noting that the Bundestag elections are due in 2025, and the federal chancellor is prioritizing domestic issues over supporting Ukraine.

While Finance Minister Christian Lindner has offered to use frozen Russian assets as an alternative support model, that plan is risky. It is not legally bulletproof, moreover, this money may not be enough to meet Ukraine's needs.

Notably, the West must see beyond weapons. Support for Ukraine means not only weapons and money, but also closing the current sanctions gaps, imposing new sanctions on China and paving the way for Ukraine to become a member of NATO.

Putin is well aware of Germany's weaknesses and behavior patterns – the nuclear blackmail is working, and the Germans fear the Kremlin's nuclear arsenal and the possibility of a war with NATO. Germany's actions are therefore easy for the Kremlin to predict. To counter this, French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested a change of leadership style and more moves to surprise the Russians. Unfortunately, the picture is the exact opposite. The chancellor's deficient leadership is obvious, and Scholz is refusing to take on any commitments.