Alar Kilp ⟩ The call made by Kõlvart and Madison will not form a government, but it can strengthen the voice of the opposition

Political scientist Alar Kilp. Photo: Private collection.

• The call made by Jaak Madison and Mihhail Kõlvart is partly unprecedented.
• There is also a certain contradiction in the tactical message of the call.
• The call is of little use in the long run.

Agreements to form a joint coalition after elections have been made in Estonian politics before. In most cases, the motive has been the desire to exclude one party (not a whole group of parties) from coming to power (usually either the Center Party or the Estonian Conservative People’s Party [EKRE]), writes political scientist Alar Kilp.

Ahead of the 1999 elections, this kind of cooperation was carried out by Mõõdukad, Isamaa and the Reform Party, who were later in Mart Laar's second government (1999-2002), and the motivation was confrontation with the Center Party. At the time, the tactical coalition fell apart when Siim Kallas formed a government together with the Center Party.

The call by Madison and Kõlvart for a broad-based coalition that would form a government after the 2027 elections is therefore partly conventional, and partly unprecedented.

Two and a half years until the next election is a very long time. This period includes the local elections, where campaigning is hardly done in the style of political parties for and against multinational corporations and green-turn companies.

There is also a certain contradiction in the political-tactical message of the call – in domestic politics, political forces are called on to oppose each other in two camps, while the Estonian members of the European Parliament are called on to work together (with the Reform Party, with which there can be no cooperation in domestic politics, but there should definitely be cooperation in the European Parliament).

From the point of view of worldview, the call expresses a certain criticism or expectation in the direction of the Social Democrats (during whose time in government, the livelihood of a considerable part of Estonian people is at risk). While the call rules out the formation of a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDE), SDE ought to agree with a large part of the policy formulation presented in the call.

If national conservatism consists primarily of supporting local people and companies and family politics, then it is indeed possible to gather oppositional forces together on this basis.

If national conservatism consists primarily of supporting local people and companies and family politics, then it is indeed possible to gather oppositional forces together on this basis (let us recall that in 2014 there were four political parties in the Riigikogu and at the time conservative positions in relation to the Registered Partnership Act were mainly held by members of the IRL and the Center Party), however, the political parties of the current coalition will also be able to come up with new solutions to all these issues by the 2027 elections.

At the same time, it cannot be entirely ruled out that it is precisely with Madison-Kõlvart's call that the systemic division of party-political competition into two camps of political parties that oppose each other is cemented. A certain socio-political counter-front was created for the coalition of the second government of Jüri Ratas, which led to the 2023 elections and based on which the current government coalition was formed. The current government coalition, in turn, has its own socio-political counter-front. In this view, the first two governments of Kaja Kallas were “compromise” coalitions (one included the Center Party and the other, in addition to the Social Democrats, Isamaa).

While a systemic split into two camps cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely that this call will be part of the process to eventually form a government after the 2027 elections. At the moment, the initiative only has the signature of one party leader and one partyless politician. It is in EKRE's self-concept to be the "only political party" that "saves Estonia", EKRE does not want to be one among a coalition of political parties. I also cannot imagine why Isamaa should rule out a coalition with the SDE or the Reform Party years in advance. Our proportional electoral system still prevents the division of parties into two opposing camps. And on the one hand, an ideological common ground unites parties, while on the other hand, parties win over votes from each other precisely when it comes to common ground.

For these reasons, it is unlikely that anything will come of this call in the long run. However, if Mihhail Kõlvart is able to get the signature of Jüri Ratas and Jaak Madison gets Martin Helme's signature for the initiative, then this would issue several significant, tactical and substantive messages to both the government and the public in the short term. The voice of an opposition with a broad-based and common message is louder and can better express the moods in society than an opposition that is in confrontation within itself, which is also much easier for the government to ignore.