Alar Kilp ⟩ Social Democrats advancing thanks to pragmatic leadership, crisis in the Center Party

Lauri Läänemets' strategy of being «half in coalition, half in opposition» is working: the Social Democrats' rating continues to rise. Illustration: Postimees

• Social Democrats' advancement is more about pragmatic leadership and communication than ideology.
• The decline of the main rival on the left has coincided in time with a rise in the rating of SDE.
• Among the elderly, the less educated and the low-paid, other parties are more popular than SDE.

In the early days of the formation of Kaja Kallas' second government in July 2022, the Reform Party's rating was consistently over 30 percent, while the rating of the Social Democrats (SDE) was below ten percent. Why hasn't the Social Democrats' rating declined in the same way as the rating of the prime minister's party, University of Tartu political scientist Alar Kilp asks.

According to polls conducted by Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut and the polling company Norstat Eesti, the Social Democrats' rating (16.8 percent) rose above that of the Reform Party (16.3 percent) by the end of July. For two years in a row, the Social Democrats have been in government coalitions led by the Reform Party.

The Social Democrats' advancement is underpinned more by pragmatic leadership and communication than ideology. When Lauri Läänemets became the leader of SDE in February 2022, SDE had just scored its poorest result in two decades (5 percent) in the local elections of 2021. In his candidacy speech, Läänemets claimed that the party's ambition «must be nothing less than to be the party of the prime minister.» If one opts for a pragmatic approach, power requires a high rating, and messages must be chosen also with ratings in mind, in addition to worldview.

In the changed security situation, the SDE led by Läänemets has adopted a more nationalist line – while in the dimension of nationalism, SDE doesn't quite measure up to several other political parties, in the process of solving the problem of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, for example, SDE is also notably nationalist. In the 2023 election campaign, the Social Democrats described people's livelihoods as «national security» – that is, used nationalism to frame ideological content, and the dimension of nationalism was not non-existent in why, at the beginning of this year, the Center Party led by Kõlvart was no longer suitable for some top politicians, but SDE was.

Their program for the Riigikogu elections in 2023 spoke of a «strong family,» which is more likely to win support in rural areas than the progressive slogan suggesting that the traditional family does not need protecting. SDE continues to condemn extremism, but it also seeks not to stigmatize voters of any party and earnestly addresses also the socio-economic causes of national populism, seeking to win over supporters from them as well. In their official program documents and speeches to party members they also (still) denounce neoliberalism and worship of the free market.

The second reason is the crisis of the Center Party. SDE and the Center Party have disagreed on the ethnic-linguistic dimension, whereas in the socio-economic program they have much overlap. Until December 2023, the rating of the Social Democrats fluctuated in the region of 10 percent. Since several Center Party top politicians left for SDE and Isamaa in early 2024, the Social Democrats' rating has been rising and is now around 15 percent. The decline in the rating of their main rival on the left of the political scale has coincided in time with the rise in the rating of SDE.

SDE continues to condemn extremism, but it also seeks not to stigmatize voters of any party and earnestly addresses also the socio-economic causes of national populism, seeking to win over supporters from them as well.

There are certainly more contributing factors. There is no strong Green party in Estonia, which in other countries would be taking votes away from Social Democrats in both European and parliamentary elections. Nordic Social Democrats are in a zero-sum competition with national populists, so a decline in the rating of EKRE can also facilitate the rise of SDE. In uncertain and volatile conditions, jobs and salaries in the public sector have become more popular among young people (Social Democrats are the most popular among 18–24-year-old voters).

To the same extent that Social Democrats are pragmatically taking over supporters from others, other parties have been gaining ground among those voter groups whom the Social Democrats are supposed to be addressing first and foremost as the bearers of the ideology of the welfare state. SDE is supported the most by the youngest people, people with higher education and those who do not have children. Among the elderly, the less educated and the low-paid, other parties are more popular than SDE.

If you listen closely to Läänemets' speeches or read the Social Democrats' program documents, alongside their support for the welfare state and rejection of free market worship, one can also find (neoliberal) ideas about competition, a greater emphasis on economic logic than social justice, equal opportunities rather than equal outcomes, and giving a fishing rod rather than a fish.

As things stand, SDE has gained more because of a crisis in the ranks of its main ideological rival and pragmatic leadership than because of ideology.