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The assassination attempt on the former US president raises numerous questions, and we will have some answers by next week at the latest, Erkki Koort, a security expert at Postimees and the Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, writes.
The July 13 shooting almost guarantees Donald Trump's return to the White House, provided no other equally shocking event occurs. Support for Trump will undoubtedly rise due to the assassination attempt, further complicating President Joe Biden's campaign and confusing Democratic voters.
The shooting is a very poor example. The wounding of a former US president by an untrained amateur does not reflect well on the Secret Service. According to the information currently available, a combination of routine high security levels, slow response to information, and possible negligence occurred.
The US Secret Service reports that both the former and current presidents are constantly threatened. These threats are taken seriously, and the highly dynamic threat environment is continuously assessed and responded to. Constant high alert can dull vigilance, and from a bodyguard's perspective, this was a pointless event in some remote area. The situation is somewhat similar to the case of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was also targeted in a seemingly peaceful, sleepy town.
The bodyguards have already stated that the local police failed because they did not carefully check the outer perimeter. However, it is clear that securing such events is only possible through cooperation. According to the information released, both the police and bodyguards received information about a person with a rifle on the roof. This information was either checked with a delay or initially not deemed credible, which proved costly.
Following the assassination attempt, information started spreading that the shooting was possible because no additional resources were allocated for Trump's protection. It was claimed that a member of Trump's security team made the request, but the Secret Service or the US Department of Homeland Security denied it. On June 14, the US Secret Service stated that «the US Secret Service recently added protective resources and capabilities to the former president's security detail.»
The skills and background of the assailant, Thomas Matthew Crooks, should not have allowed him to make those shots. A lonely student, bullied at school, and rejected by the school shooting club due to poor skills, Crooks managed to shoot one of the most protected people on the planet. Given the incident and Crooks' profile, he could have become a school shooter. As a matter of fact, national risk mitigation in this area is also a task of the Secret Service.
After the shooting began, the Secret Service sniper team shot the attacker. However, the former president was injured, one person was killed, and two others at the event were seriously wounded. The shooter chose a side position, which was very clever, as people usually move side to side while speaking, not back and forth. This restriction is set by the podium. Videos show Trump turning his head just before the shot, which is probably what saved him. As a result, the bullet grazed his ear, and bodyguards were able to take the former president away. Reportedly, Trump refused to be carried off, as it would have left a poor impression.
During the evacuation, it was noticeable that the exit from the stage was relatively uncomfortable and narrow. The lack of a quick and smooth evacuation route indicates that the event was probably not considered a high-priority one.
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle is facing the biggest crisis of her tenure. She is a longtime Secret Service employee who briefly worked in the private sector before returning to the agency as director at President Biden's invitation.
Chance plays a significant role, and catching a lone actor is naturally very difficult. However, considering the shooter's background, he should not have had any opportunity. The incident means the Secret Service director's position is unstable, and the same goes for Assistant Director Michael Plati, who is responsible for bodyguard operations. Unfortunately, one must be accountable for one's subordinates, and in such exceptional events, there are many who demand blood.
On July 22, the Congress will hold a hearing with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle. She has affirmed her support for her staff and stated that they acted professionally. Cheatle has also been in constant contact with officials responsible for the integrity of the crime scene. Additionally, she announced that Trump's and other protectees' plans would be reviewed due to the incident, and additional security measures have been implemented in the security plans for the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
What's next? Undoubtedly, the security measures for protectees will be further strengthened in the near future, likely not just in the United States. Many incident reports are likely to emerge soon, as agencies are on high alert and may prefer to err on the side of caution. It is likely that the director of the Secret Service will resign, as even Biden will find it challenging to defend her.
The city of Butler, where the assassination attempt took place, is roughly the size of Võru, with 13,000 residents. The city was named after Major General Richard Butler, an officer in the the American Revolutionary War. His family came from Ireland, where his father had a gun shop in Dublin. They moved to America in 1748, supported themselves with gun manufacturing, and participated in both the American Revolutionary War and American Indian Wars. Richard Butler was killed in one of the latter wars.
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